Severe Thunderstorm Warning 554, NWS Norman, OK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1212 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 416 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

Through Daybreak Sunday: Another organized storm complex, with
severe weather and flood potential, is expected across the region.
In the near-term, a zone of weak low-level warm air
advection/moisture convergence, on the periphery of a departing
mesoscale convective vortex (MCV), is fostering attempts at deep
convection across far southern zones. Given minimal inhibition
and sufficient instability, a few storms may continue across the
far southeastern CWA through about sunset, with a strong storm or
two (gusty winds/small hail) possible.

The main focus over the coming 12-18 hours will be multiple upper
waves emerging from the High Plains/Intermountain West. The first
is evident to be advancing across portions of the Texas/Oklahoma
Panhandles at this hour. While a majority of CAM guidance has this
feature gradually weakening as it moves into portions of western
Oklahoma, given a rather unstable boundary layer in place across
this area, will need to watch for isolated storm this evening across
western Oklahoma. High temperatures this afternoon will run
cooler (low to mid-80s) across northern Oklahoma than areas across
the Red River Valley (mid to upper-90s).

Otherwise, a more prominent shortwave trough is expected to
instigate widespread deep convection across much of the central
and southern High Plains this evening. By late tonight (after 9-10
PM), convection is expected to organize into one or two
southeastward propagating linear bands and move into portions of
western Oklahoma (and perhaps into parts of western-north Texas).
Similar to previous nights, a few storms/portions of the line will
be capable of producing severe outcomes, primarily in the form of
severe caliber wind gusts/damage. Potential will also exist for
an instance or two of large hail, owing to sufficient
instability/mid-level lapse rates (>7.0 C/km). Hail potential will
focus across far northwestern Oklahoma and will be storm mode
dependent (cellular updrafts over linear organization). With
forecasted precipitable water values at the 90th percentile for
early July, combined with the potential for widespread convection,
isolated flash flooding is possible across western Oklahoma. This
will be especially true for portions of far northwestern
Oklahoma, where heaviest totals have occurred with convection
the past 36 hours. As such, a Flood Watch has been posted for
portions of the area from 11 PM this evening through 7 AM Sunday
morning. Activity will continue to pose at least a low-end severe
risk (damaging winds) as it pushes southeastward through the
forecast area early Sunday morning.
  5
Sunday: A "cooler" and mostly dry day is expected in the wake of a
clearing storm complex. Lingering thunder chances are expected
through mid-morning, especially across southeast Oklahoma as the
aforementioned storm complex slides toward the ArkLaTex.
Otherwise, a cold front is expected to drop through much of the
area and offer below normal afternoon highs for northern and
central Oklahoma (upper-70s to low-80s). Slightly warmer
temperatures are expected across the Red River Valley (low-90s),
where an isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out (though higher
chances exist towards the I-20 corridor).

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 416 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

Sunday Night - Sunset Monday: Mainly dry times, with seasonable
afternoon temperatures (on Monday), are expected. An upper-level
ridge is expected to begin slowly drifting eastward by Sunday
evening. Synoptically, this would tend to favor a transition towards
dry surface conditions for a majority of the forecast area. However,
guidance indicates the potential for a compact impulse to quickly
round the periphery of the ridge and dive into portions of
Oklahoma/north Texas. This is forecast to promote areas of light
showers/isolated thunder across the Red River Valley early on
Monday morning. During daytime hours on Monday, mostly dry time
is expected for all zones. Afternoon temperatures will begin the
climb towards average early July readings for all areas (upper-80s
to upper-90s).

Monday Night: Another round of overnight storm (with some severe)
potential is currently anticipated. A majority of CAM members
capture another low amplitude shortwave rounding the upper ridge
and sliding towards the region. This is expected to lead to
another period of (at least) scattered convection. Once again,
with a suitable thermodynamic environment expected, coincident
with the passage of an upper wave (i.e. increased wind shear),
severe weather chances will exist (damaging winds/large
hail/heavy rainfall).

Tuesday - Friday: Hot temperatures and mostly dry conditons are
expected by the middle to end of next week. Ensemble guidance
shows the western upper ridge gradually expanding eastward with
time next week. This will yield hot afternoon and evening
temperatures, especially across far southwest Oklahoma/western-
north Texas (low to mid-100s expected). The overall synoptic
pattern favors mostly dry conditions for the region.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sun Jul 9 2023

Complex of storms and associated period of MVFR and possibly IFR
conditions will occur overnight as these storms move south and
southeast across the area. Expect to see a return of VFR
conditions by late morning into the afternoon hours on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  67  86  71  92 /  10  10  40  20
Hobart OK         66  90  70  98 /  10  10  30  10
Wichita Falls TX  70  97  75 102 /  20  10  20  10
Gage OK           63  88  67  94 /   0  10  20   0
Ponca City OK     63  86  68  90 /  10   0  50  10
Durant OK         70  88  74  93 /  40  20  30  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until noon CDT today for OKZ004-005-009>011-014>018-
     022>024-027.

TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...34
LONG TERM....34
AVIATION...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
926 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-100230-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
926 PM CDT Sat Jul 8 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
A complex of storms is expected to enter western and northwestern
Oklahoma late this evening, pushing southeastward across much of
the forecast area overnight. Severe weather potential will exist
with this activity mainly in the form of damaging wind gusts.
Large hail will be possible across far northwestern Oklahoma late
Saturday evening.

.Heavy Rainfall...
Heavy rainfall is also likely with storms during the overnight
period. Areas across northwestern into portions of western and
central Oklahoma, where heavy rainfall has occurred over the past
two days, may see flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will linger through Sunday morning across southern
Oklahoma with strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall possible.

There is also a chance for strong to severe storms Monday night
across much of the area, with large hail and damaging wind gusts
once again possible.

.Heat...
Afternoon heat indices from 105 to 110 degrees are possible
across far southern Oklahoma and western-north Texas on Tuesday,
with those heat indices expanding more areawide by the middle to
end of the next work week.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

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