Winter Storm Warning 2, NWS New York, NY

072 
WWUS41 KOKX 131543
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
1143 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

NJZ002-NYZ067-068-132345-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0002.230314T0200Z-230315T1000Z/
Western Passaic-Orange-Putnam-
1143 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 
  12 inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Western Passaic County. In New York, 
  Orange and Putnam Counties.

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Higher amounts will occur at elevations 
  above 750 ft. This is where amounts will range closer to 8 to 
  12 inches. This is where power outages are possible due to 
  heavy wet snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

CTZ005-NJZ004-103-NYZ069-070-132345-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0004.230314T0400Z-230315T1000Z/
Northern Fairfield-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-
1143 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern Fairfield County. In New 
  Jersey, Western Bergen County. In New York, Rockland and 
  Northern Westchester Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Elevations above 500 ft will have 
  accumulations closer to 5 and 7 inches. This is where power 
  outages are possible due to heavy wet snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

CTZ006>008-132345-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0004.230314T1000Z-230315T1000Z/
Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-
1143 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO
6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...Northern New Haven County.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Elevated locations will see locally 3 to 
  4 inches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/nyc

429 
WWUS41 KOKX 132004
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
404 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

NJZ002-NYZ067-068-140900-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0002.230314T0200Z-230315T1000Z/
Western Passaic-Orange-Putnam-
404 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Western Passaic County. In New York, 
  Orange and Putnam Counties. 

* WHEN...From 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Higher amounts will occur at elevations 
  above 750 ft. This is where amounts will range closer to 8 to 
  12 inches. This is where power outages are possible due to 
  heavy wet snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

CTZ005-NJZ004-103-NYZ069-070-140900-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0004.230314T0400Z-230315T1000Z/
Northern Fairfield-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Rockland-
Northern Westchester-
404 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches.
  Winds gusting as high as 45 to 50 mph through much of Wednesday
  morning for southern Connecticut. Winds gusting up to 45 mph 
  for Bergen, Rockland, and Northern Westchester.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern Fairfield County. In New 
  Jersey, Eastern Passaic and Western Bergen Counties. In New 
  York, Rockland and Northern Westchester Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty 
  winds could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Elevations above 500 ft will have 
  accumulations closer to 5 and 7 inches. This is where power 
  outages are possible due to heavy wet snow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

CTZ006>008-140900-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0004.230314T1000Z-230315T1000Z/
Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-
404 PM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO
6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches.
  Winds gusting 45 to 50 mph through much of Wednesday morning.

* WHERE...Northern New Haven, Northern Middlesex and Northern 
  New London Counties.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. Gusty 
  winds could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Elevated locations will see locally 3 to 
  4 inches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/nyc

608 
WWUS41 KOKX 140747
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
347 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023

CTZ007-008-140900-
/O.CAN.KOKX.WW.Y.0004.230314T1000Z-230315T1000Z/
Northern Middlesex-Northern New London-
347 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Widespread snowfall accumulation is no longer expected. 
Although 1 to 2 inches across far northern portions may result
in hazardous travel later today across elevated locations.

$$

NJZ002-NYZ067-068-142100-
/O.EXT.KOKX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230315T0400Z/
Western Passaic-Orange-Putnam-
347 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow. Additional snow accumulations of 5 to 8
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph late today into this 
  evening.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Western Passaic County. In New York, 
  Orange and Putnam Counties.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
  Scattered power outages due to snow load are possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The highest snow totals will be in the
  higher elevations above 500 ft. Valley locations will receive
  less snow. Snowfall totals may approach 10 to 12 inches in the
  highest elevations, with considerably less in the lowest
  elevations.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

NJZ004-103-NYZ069-070-142100-
/O.EXT.KOKX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-230315T0400Z/
Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
347 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 7 inches. 
  Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Eastern Passaic and Western Bergen 
  Counties. In New York, Rockland and Northern Westchester 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Most portions of the county will receive
  under 4 inches, with elevations above 500 feet receiving 5 to 7
  inches.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

CTZ005-142100-
/O.EXT.KOKX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-230315T0700Z/
Northern Fairfield-
347 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches. The highest
  elevations across far northwestern portions will receive 5 to 7
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Fairfield County.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Elevations above 500 ft will receive 5 to 7
  inches of heavy wet snow. These locations may experience
  scattered power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

CTZ006-142100-
/O.EXT.KOKX.WW.Y.0004.230314T0747Z-230315T0700Z/
Northern New Haven-
347 AM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. Winds gusting as 
  high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Northern New Haven County.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/nyc

878 
WWUS41 KOKX 142015
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
415 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023

NJZ002-NYZ067-068-150400-
/O.CON.KOKX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230315T0400Z/
Western Passaic-Orange-Putnam-
415 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 4 
  inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph late today into this 
  evening.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Western Passaic County. In New York, 
  Orange and Putnam Counties.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. 
  Scattered power outages due to snow load are possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

NJZ004-103-NYZ069-070-150400-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-230315T0400Z/
Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
415 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. 
  Winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Eastern Passaic and Western Bergen 
  Counties. In New York, Rockland and Northern Westchester 
  Counties.

* WHEN...Until midnight EDT tonight.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

CTZ005-006-150415-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-230315T0700Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-
415 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches. 
  The highest elevations across far northwestern portions will 
  receive 5 to 8 inches total. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Fairfield County and Northern New Haven County
  in Connecticut.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous 
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/nyc

648 
WWUS41 KOKX 150227
WSWOKX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
1027 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023

NJZ002-NYZ067-068-150330-
/O.CAN.KOKX.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-230315T0400Z/
Western Passaic-Orange-Putnam-
1027 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

There may still be a few snow showers up until around midnight.
Very little to no additional snow accumulation is expected.

$$

NJZ004-103-NYZ069-070-150330-
/O.CAN.KOKX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-230315T0400Z/
Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
1027 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

There may still be a few snow showers up until around midnight.
Very little to no additional snow accumulation is expected.

$$

CTZ005-006-150700-
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-230315T0700Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-
1027 PM EDT Tue Mar 14 2023

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of under and inch. Winds
  gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Northern Fairfield and Northern New Haven Counties.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM EDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. 

Check local Department of Transportation information services for
the latest road conditions.

&&

$$

For more information from the National Weather Service visit
https://weather.gov/nyc

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
144 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal storm will affect the region from late this overnight
through Tuesday. Strong low pressure spins over the New England
coast before pushing east Wednesday into Wednesday night. High
pressure builds in from the west Thursday into Thursday night
and then moves off the Southeast US coast Friday. A frontal
system from the west approaches Friday night and passes through
on Saturday, followed by weak high pressure on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Just tweaked up PoPs slightly by about 10 to 15 percent across
western most areas for the pre- dawn hours, otherwise fcst
remains on track. Previous discussion follows.

High pressure over New England will retreat into the Canadian
Maritimes tonight. This will allow a weakening low pressure
system from the eastern Great Lakes to approach. Meanwhile, low
pressure over the southeast US pushes offshore. Aloft, a trough
over the Great Lakes also approaches. Any precipitation should
be light and mainly after 6z, with chances of precipitation
increasing as the overnight progresses into the pre-dawn hours,
though eastern areas should remain dry throughout.

Precipitation should start off as all snow across portions the
Lower Hudson Valley, with plain rain across much of Northeast
New Jersey and into New York City. Only very minor, if any
accumulation at all expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As the trough continues its approach, the low over the Great
Lakes continues to weaken, as the low off the Southeast US
becomes the primary low, still situated well south of the area
by the end of the day Monday. An inverted trough develops and
stretches north into the Northeast US. This will be the focus
for some more moderate to heavy precipitation late in the day
Monday into Monday night. There area indications in the
deterministic models that another low pressure may form along
this boundary, which will further aid in lift, and thus heavy
precipitation. Additionally, the upper trough strengthens into a
closed low, aiding in strengthening the surface low or lows.

The primary surface low will south and east of the area, though
there is still a fair amount uncertainty in the exact track,
leading to uncertainty in precipitation amounts. Most models
take the track of this primary low (that strengthens to ~980 mb
to ~985 mb) over or east of the 40N/70W benchmark sometime
Tuesday morning. The weaker secondary low track over Long
Island. The primary low pivots northeast around the secondary
toward the Gulf of Maine (or near Cape Cod) by the end of the
day Tuesday.

The trend with the track however, has been farther south and
east, meaning a colder solution and therefore more in the way of
snow, even along the coast. Much of the area will see plain
rain for Monday, with perhaps a rain/snow mix across the higher
elevation inland. As the low tracks east of the area, and
strengthens, strong cold air advection will ensue, allowing a
changeover to snow from northwest to southeast late Monday night
into Tuesday morning. This time frame is also a period of when
the heavier precipitation is expected. Heavy snow is expected
across the interior, while there will be heavy rain for the
coast.

By early Tuesday morning, the changeover continues, even towards
coastal areas, but by this point, the heavier precipitation will
have ended. This changeover continues moving south and east.
The snowfall forecast will be quite challenging as accumulating
snowfall is possible, even along the coast. Some of the main
challenges will be where the exactly the low tracks and how
strong will it be (a weaker low will not bring in the colder
air, just as a low closer to the coast will also mean a warmer
solution), how much the March sun angle will aid in melting the
snow as it falls (which will mean a snow ratio much less than
10:1), and the possibility of a deformation band developing and
where it sets up which is being advertised in some of the
mesoscale models.

Despite these uncertainties, it was prudent to increase snow
totals, with close to a foot across western Orange County.
However, much of the rest of the Lower Hudson Valley, and
portions of northeast New Jersey and inland southwest
Connecticut are expected to see 6 to 10 inches of snow. Have
added western Bergen, Rockland, northern Westchester, and
northern New Haven to the Winter Storm Watches. However, held
off on converting any watches to warnings given uncertainty.

Right now, 1 to 3 inches of snow is possible for the coast,
including New York City. Most of the ensembles show this range. There
is the possibility of seeing more snow, with advisory level
snow not out of the question. A reasonable high end for New York
City is around 6 inches, though this is an outlier right now.

With a strengthening low, winds will also be strong. Eastern
areas, such as the Twin Forks of Long Island and southeastern
Connecticut are approaching Wind Advisory criteria (46 mph gusts and
higher). Gusts of 40 to 45 mph are more likely, with isolated
gusts to 50 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The storm slowly shifts east during Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning with a gusty NW flow, but short of wind advisory criteria.
Snow ends in most spots by daybreak, but lingering chances remain
over the easternmost zones Wednesday morning. Deep-layered ridging
then follows in the afternoon through Thursday, with the center of
high pressure shifting off the Carolina coast Thursday night. Dry
weather for this period, with high temperatures below normal on
Wednesday and closer to normal on Thursday.

Low pressure shifts through the Great Lakes Region on Friday. A
secondary low may then form along an associated warm front and pass
through or nearby the forecast area during Saturday. This brings us
a chance of rain or rain showers during this period with the best
chances appearing to be Friday night into Saturday morning. Will cap
PoPs at chance for the time being until confidence in timing
increases. Highs mostly 50-55 for both days. The low pressure system
then heads NE for Sunday with high pressure trying to build in from
the west. The flow may still be cyclonic aloft in the morning with a
chance of a surface trough shifting through. Will go with a dry
forecast as winds will likely be in a downsloping direction. Highs
in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure tracks towards the area tonight and deepens over
the Atlantic Monday night into Tuesday.

Any VFR conditions tonight lower to MVFR or IFR through 12Z.
Ceilings will then hold steady or drop slowly through the day.
Light precipitation works in from the west toward daybreak,
starting off as snow for KSWF, and a rain/snow mix for KHPN,
with mainly rain across NYC terminals. All terminals become
plain rain by 15Z. KGON could stay dry through much of Monday.
Rain increases in intensity after 00Z Tue with widespread IFR
localized LIFR. The precipitation could begin to change to snow
after 00Z for northernmost terminals first. All snow expected
at KSWF by 6Z Tuesday. Snow may begin to mix in with the rain
for the coastal and NYC terminals 9-12Z Tuesday. Exact timing of
snow mix depends on the exact track and intensity of the
system.

SE winds generally less than 10 kt, back to the E overnight,
increasing to around 10 kt with G15-20kt possible by late Monday
morning, especially at the coastal terminals. Winds increase
after 00Z Tue and begin to back to the N. Winds become NW and
increase after 6Z Tuesday.

  ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of initial precipitation and changing flight categories into
Monday morning could be off by a few hours. In the 18-00Z
period, IFR could be more intermittent with category fluctuating
between MVFR and IFR. Timing of snow mixing in with the rain
Tuesday morning may be off by a few hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Mon Late Night...IFR. Mainly RA, transitioning to SN from NW to
SE to the north and west of NYC. E winds, becoming NE and
strengthening to 15-20 kt with gusts 25-35 kt by 12Z Tue.
Highest winds and gusts along the coast.

Tue...MVFR to IFR. Possible sub-IFR at times. Mainly SN at KSWF with
a rain/snow mix elsewhere. Transition to snow from west to east,
becoming all snow by Tue night. NW winds 15-25 kt with gusts 25 to
35 kt. Some gusts up to 40 kt. Strongest winds and gusts at the
coastal terminals.

Wed...Becoming VFR. NW winds 15-25kt G30-35kt. Gusts decreasing at
night.

Thu...VFR. NW winds G15-20kt.

Fri...Mainly VFR. S G15-20kt. Chance of showers late.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90.

&&

.MARINE...
Small crafts for the ocean waters into the pre-dawn hours.
Increasing winds Monday will result in widespread SCA
conditions on all waters by Monday morning with gusts upwards of
25 kt. Winds continue to increase into Tuesday morning as the
approach of a rapidly deepening coastal low tightens the
pressure gradient over the area. By Tuesday, gales will be
likely on all waters and Gale Watches are now in effect.

Waves will build to 5 to 11 ft the ocean waters by Tuesday
afternoon and 5 to 7 ft are possible in the central and easter
sound.

Gales remain likely through Wednesday afternoon on all waters, then
become confined to the ocean for Wednesday evening with otherwise
SCA level wind gusts for the non-ocean waters Wednesday night. The
Gale Watch has been extended through Wednesday afternoon. SCA level
wind gusts are forecast on the ocean Wednesday overnight. SCA conds
then for Thursday morning, mainly on the ocean. Winds and seas
finally fall below advisory thresholds for Thursday afternoon with a
weakening offshore flow and subsiding seas. These relatively calm
conditions last through Friday before winds and seas increase once
again Friday night with the approach of the next storm system.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A widespread area of 2 to 2.5 inches of liquid equivalent is
expected through Tuesday night, with isolated amounts of up to 3
inches. Exactly where this fall is still uncertain, and a
portion of this will fall as snow across portions of northeast
New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley, and southwest Connecticut.
However, with this amount of rainfall, flooding is a
possibility and the Weather Prediction Center has placed much of
the area in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall.

No hydrologic impacts are expected thereafter for the rest of the
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Another round of minor coastal flooding for the south shore
bays of southern Queens and southern Nassau for high tides
tonight. Felt these locations would get more water piling with
the SE flow, so have these areas in the coastal flood advisory.

Also have coastal flood statements for parts of the Lower NY
Harbor, Western Long Island Sound shorelines of southern
Westchester NY and southern Fairfield CT as well as southern
Suffolk County shorelines for tonight. With the ocean seas
remaining elevated, went with coastal flood statement for
Suffolk for possible localized minor coastal flooding for
tonight's high tides.

Marginal easterly gales will develop Mon Night/Tue Morning as
low pressure strengthens offshore. Main forecast challenge will
be the timing of winds backing from the east to northeast in
relation to the time of high tide. An earlier backing would
decrease the surge, while a later backing, after the time of
high tide, would increase the surge at high tide. Have leaned a
bit towards the latter scenario, with generally 2 to 2 1/2 ft
surge, locally 3 ft, resulting in widespread minor coastal
flooding for the Monday night/early Tue AM high tidal cycle
with localized moderate coastal flooding possible. The highest
threat for localized moderate coastal flooding being along
western Great South Bay, W LI Sound, and Twin Forks. Winds shift
offshore thereafter, ending the coastal flood threat.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Tuesday evening
     for CTZ005-006.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for
     CTZ009-010.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Tuesday evening
     for NYZ067>070.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 AM to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for
     NYZ071-073-078-176-177.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EDT
     Tuesday for NYZ079>081.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT early this morning for
     NYZ178-179.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT
     Tuesday for NYZ178-179.
NJ...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Tuesday evening
     for NJZ002-103.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 AM EDT
     Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon
     for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JC/JP
NEAR TERM...JE/JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...JC/JP
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
403 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

CTZ006-NJZ103-NYZ069-070-132015-
Northern New Haven-Western Bergen-Rockland-Northern Westchester-
403 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ007-NJZ004-132015-
Northern Middlesex-Eastern Passaic-
403 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
northeast New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A coastal storm has the potential to bring an accumulating snowfall,
mainly from late Monday night into Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ008-011-012-NJZ006-104>108-NYZ072-074-075-132015-
Northern New London-Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Hudson-
Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-
Eastern Union-New York (Manhattan)-Richmond (Staten Island)-
Kings (Brooklyn)-
403 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A coastal storm has the potential to bring an accumulating snowfall,
mainly from late Monday night into Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ009-010-NYZ071-073-078-176-177-132015-
Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Westchester-Bronx-
Northwest Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-
403 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

A coastal storm has the potential to bring an accumulating snowfall,
mainly from late Monday night into Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ178-179-132015-
Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
403 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM
EDT MONDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

A coastal storm has the potential to bring an accumulating snowfall,
mainly from late Monday night into Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

NYZ079>081-132015-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
403 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO
7 AM EDT TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Coastal Flood Advisory.

A coastal storm has the potential to bring an accumulating snowfall,
mainly from late Monday night into Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-132015-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
403 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ005-NJZ002-NYZ067-068-132015-
Northern Fairfield-Western Passaic-Orange-Putnam-
403 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2023

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut,
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.