River Flood Warning 3, NWS New York, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
439 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A wave of low pressure slowly moves into the region tonight
into Monday and then will slowly move northeast of the area
going into Monday night. For Monday night, weak high pressure
will gradually build in from the south and west. The center of
high pressure moves across Tuesday night into Wednesday then
offshore for the end of the week. This will give way to the next
frontal system and wave of low pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The flood watch has been expanded to include all of Long Island
from 8PM tonight until 2PM Monday. The flood watch remains in
effect for Northeast NJ, NYC, and the Lower Hudson Valley until
6AM Monday. The flood watch remains in effect for Southern CT
from 8PM tonight until 2PM Monday.

Forecast guidance shifted east with heavy rain.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms have developed across
interior Northeast NJ and the Lower Hudson Valley. The MCS
structure appears to be a broken line with trailing stratiform.
There has been merging and coalescence of thunderstorms to
produce larger areas of heavy rain. Looking farther back, the
line extends farther southwest through SE Pennsylvania and into
Maryland.

So far, the Lower Hudson Valley has received the most rainfall
thus far with 1 to 3 inches in different locations with some
localized higher amounts. There has already been reports of
flooding within this location.

The farther southwest section of the line is set to make its
way into Northeast NJ and into NYC this evening. For Lower
Hudson Valley, the showers and thunderstorms will continue into
this evening. For Long Island and Southern Connecticut, the line
is forecast to break apart partially but with another area of
showers and thunderstorms approaching from the south late this
evening. Further convective development is expected over parts
of the Lower Hudson Valley, parts of NYC, Southern Connecticut,
and Long Island overnight.

The forcing is positive vorticity advection from two shortwaves,
one moving across this evening and a stronger one approaching
overnight. This will be during a time when the precipitable
waters across the region remain near 2 inches.

Forecast lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms continue but to start will be mainly
east of NYC, Northeast NJ, and Lower Hudson Valley. The CAMs
have the convection pushing east of Long Island and Southern CT
late in the morning. More pop-up shower and thunderstorm
activity remain in the forecast, most likely across eastern
sections for the afternoon.

The maximum precipitable waters shifts east of the area Monday
Monday afternoon into Monday night. The cold pool aloft with the
upper level trough axis moving into the region Monday afternoon
into early Monday night.

Forecast highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper low and trough move east of the region Monday night.
At the surface, low pressure is slow to move east of the area.
There still remain a bit of uncertainty with just how quickly
conditions clear out. Will maintain at least some chance POPs
early Monday night and they will gradually taper off after
midnight from west to east.

Any leftover showers across the far eastern sections of the CWA
come to an end early Tuesday morning. Then, we should get into
drier period of weather as high pressure builds over the area.

The next wave of low pressure along with a cold front will
approach Thursday and continue into the weekend. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast.

Temperatures will remain at or slightly above through the long
term. The warmest two days in the long term will be Wednesday
and Thursday with forecast highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Heat index values remain below heat advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A slow-moving frontal system will approach from the west today
and move across the area tonight into Monday.

VFR to MVFR cigs expected through much of the TAF period. Showers
and thunderstorms have already developed west of the NYC
terminals and are expected to move eastward impacting the
terminals later this afternoon, evening and the first part of
tonight. A second round of showers and thunderstorms are
expected early Monday morning mainly from about 08z-12z,
slightly later further east. This second batch of precipitation
is associated with the front itself. Once that area moves east
of the area, winds will turn and improvement back to VFR is
expected.

Winds will be mainly S-SE near 5-10 kt through tonight. Then
winds become more north/northwesterly behind the cold front.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for changing flight categories. Low
confidence of when any changes occur with storms.

Any thunderstorms may be capable of producing strong gusty
winds.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday: MVFR or lower possible at times. A chance of
thunderstorms late in the afternoon and evening.

Tuesday and Wednesday: Mainly VFR.

Thursday and Friday. MVFR or lower possible with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms, mainly afternoon into night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The short term forecast period through Monday will remain below
SCA thresholds for all forecast waters with a relatively weak
pressure gradient in place.

Much of the long term period will remain below SCA conditions on all
waters. For Thursday late afternoon into early Friday morning, winds
and seas increase with marginal SCA conditions across the ocean.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Already have had 2 to 4 inches of rain with locally higher
amounts in parts of the Lower Hudson Valley.

Total additional rainfall forecast of 2 to 3 inches across
parts of Northeast NJ, Lower Hudson Valley and Southwest
Connecticut is forecast through Monday night with around 1 to
1.5 inches for much of the remainder of the forecast area to the
southeast. There will likely be localized higher amounts. For
the Lower Hudson Valley, and Northeast NJ, the bulk of this rain
will be through tonight. For Southern Connecticut and Long
Island the bulk of the rain will be late this evening through
Monday morning.

Flood chances are highest through tonight for Lower Hudson
Valley, Northeast NJ, and NYC and flood chances are highest
this evening through Monday morning for Southern Connecticut and
Long Island.

Some rivers and streams may remain elevated and near bankfull
Monday after the rainfall has ended.

WPC has moderate excessive rain across Northeast NJ, Lower
Hudson Valley, Southwest CT and Nassau NY through tonight and a
slight risk for excessive rain for much of Southern CT and Twin
Forks of Long Island a marginal risk elsewhere for Monday into
early Monday night.

Otherwise, no significant widespread rainfall expected Tuesday
onward.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a low risk of rip current development for all ocean
beaches thru Mon.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Monday
     afternoon for CTZ005>012.
NY...Flood Watch from 8 PM EDT this evening through Monday
     afternoon for NYZ078>081-177-179.
     Flood Watch through late tonight for NYZ067>075-176-178.
NJ...Flood Watch through late tonight for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
246 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176-178-101900-
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-
Northern Queens-Southern Queens-
246 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ005>012-NYZ078>081-177-179-101900-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau-
246 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-101900-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
246 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather that would meet NWS
warning criteria is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

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Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service New York NY
742 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     Flash Flood      1 SW Viola              41.12N 74.10W
07/09/2023                   Rockland           NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Corrects previous flash flood report from 1
            SW Viola. Water rescue Spook Rock Road & Joy
            Road.

0322 PM     Flash Flood      3 S Fort Montgomery     41.30N 73.98W
07/09/2023                   Rockland           NY   Public

            Flooding and a debris spill has closed 9W on
            Seven Lakes Dr. All lanes blocked.

0457 PM     Flash Flood      2 WNW Stony Point       41.24N 74.04W
07/09/2023                   Rockland           NY   Dept of Highways

            Flooding has closed Palisades Interstate
            Parkway at Gate Hill Road in both
            directions. There is also report of debris
            in the flooding.

0520 PM     Flash Flood      1 NNE West Haverstraw   41.22N 73.98W
07/09/2023                   Rockland           NY   Emergency Mngr

            Several roads washed out near Cedar Brook.

1220 PM     Flash Flood      2 N Mahopac             41.40N 73.74W
07/09/2023                   Putnam             NY   Public

            video of water rushing down Wixon Pond Rd &
            E Lake Blvd in Carmel, NY.

1234 PM     Flash Flood      2 SE Lake Carmel        41.45N 73.65W
07/09/2023                   Putnam             NY   Law Enforcement

            Fair street closed due to high water.

0105 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Middletown              41.45N 74.42W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            tree down on house with wires.

0122 PM     Flash Flood      2 WSW Maybrook          41.47N 74.24W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            flooded basement.

0159 PM     Flash Flood      3 NNE Unionville        41.34N 74.54W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Flooded basement.

0300 PM     Flash Flood      1 SE Middletown         41.44N 74.42W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Law Enforcement

            Several roads closed in Middletown due to
            high water including Sterling St, Wilson St,
            and Scranton Ave.

0300 PM     Flash Flood      Maybrook                41.49N 74.22W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Numerous flooded basements and several
            closed roads including Broadway in Maybrook.

0311 PM     Flash Flood      3 SW Fort Montgomery    41.31N 74.02W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Dept of Highways

            DOT Debris and DOT Flooding and DOT Tree
            Down and Road Closure on Palisades
            Interstate Parkway both directions at Exit
            19 - Seven Lakes Parkway (Highlands) all
            lanes of 4 lanes blocked MM 34.7.

0315 PM     Flash Flood      Fort Montgomery         41.33N 73.99W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Vehicle in flood waters in Fort Montgomery
            on Exit 18.

0320 PM     Lightning        1 N Gardnertown         41.55N 74.06W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            House fire caused by lightning strike on
            Chestnut Ln.

0335 PM     Flash Flood      1 SSW Highland Falls    41.35N 73.97W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            9W is washed out in both directions.
            Boulders blocking the roadway. Between Fort
            Montgomery and Highland Falls.

0338 PM     Flash Flood      1 S Fort Montgomery     41.33N 73.99W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Mine Dock Rd, person trapped in home.

0400 PM     Flash Flood      Highland Falls          41.36N 73.97W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            2 persons trapped in vehicle in flood
            waters. Fire department responding.

0410 PM     Flash Flood      Cornwall                41.44N 74.04W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Emergency Mngr

            Cornwall Emergency Management reporting
            numerous flooded roadways, water rescues,
            and a few mudslides.

0410 PM     Flash Flood      1 NNW Highland Falls    41.38N 73.97W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Two people trapped in vehicle submerged in
            flood waters on Eagle Valley Road. Fire
            Department Responding.

0419 PM     Flash Flood      1 ENE Highland Mills    41.36N 74.10W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Basement flooding on Rainbow drive. Fire
            department responding.

0420 PM     Flash Flood      1 S Fort Montgomery     41.33N 73.99W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Public

            The base of the Popolopen Arch Bridge is
            being washed out. Fire Department has closed
            the bridge to traffic due to safety
            concerns.

0423 PM     Flash Flood      1 WSW West Point        41.35N 74.05W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Dept of Highways

            NY 293 is closed due to flooding in both
            directions.

0433 PM     Flash Flood      1 SSE Scotchtown        41.47N 74.36W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Fire Department responding to vehicle
            trapped in flood waters on Ballard Road.

0440 PM     Flash Flood      4 WSW Fort Montgomery   41.31N 74.05W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Trained Spotter

            A portion of US 6 has collapsed near the
            traffic circle west of the Palisades
            Interstate Parkway.

0445 PM     Flash Flood      1 NNE Highland Falls    41.37N 73.97W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Significant flooding ongoing on Main Street.
            Multiple cars have flowing water up to the
            tops of cars. Swift water rescues ongoing.

0454 PM     Flash Flood      3 SW Fort Montgomery    41.31N 74.03W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Fire department responding to vehicle
            trapped in flood waters at the Long Mountain
            Parkway Traffic Ciricle.

0510 PM     Flash Flood      1 NNW Harriman          41.32N 74.15W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Vehicle submerged on Larkin Drive. Fire
            Department attempting to rescue.

0520 PM     Flash Flood      Goshen                  41.40N 74.33W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Fire Department reporting multiple homes
            with basement flooding in Goshen.

0522 PM     Flash Flood      1 ENE Fort Montgomery   41.34N 73.98W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Vehicle trapped in flooding with Fire
            Department responding on Old State Road near
            9W.

0533 PM     Flash Flood      1 SSW Central Valley    41.32N 74.13W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Dept of Highways

            All lanes blocked due to flooding on US 6 in
            both directions near NY 17 and NY 32.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
752 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     Flash Flood      1 NNE Highland Falls    41.37N 73.96W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   911 Call Center

            Multiple people trapped in RVs at the
            Highland Falls RV Park. Flooding is ongoing
            and Fire Department is responding.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
759 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

CTZ009-NYZ070-071-100045-
Southern Fairfield CT-Southern Westchester NY-
Northern Westchester NY-
759 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Fairfield
and central Westchester Counties through 845 PM EDT...

At 759 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Glen Cove, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Stamford, New Rochelle, White Plains, Port Chester, Greenwich,
Harrison, Scarsdale, Hawthorne, Mamaroneck, Rye Brook, Briarcliff
Manor, Pleasantville, Larchmont, Hartsdale and Elmsford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4090 7377 4115 7387 4120 7355 4099 7354
      4099 7356 4100 7359 4097 7362 4097 7366
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 168DEG 19KT 4089 7364

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

JT