Alert archive / New York / Flash Flood Warnings in 2023

Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS New York, NY

July 9, 2023Putnam County, Rockland County, Westchester County, New York; Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, Connecticut

NWS New York, NY issued this flash flood warning at Jul 9, 2023, 11:03 PM EDT for Putnam County, Rockland County, Westchester County, New York; Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, Connecticut. It was in force for 5 hr. 6 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Jul 9, 2023, 11:03 PM EDT (03:03 UTC)
Expired
Jul 10, 2023, 4:00 AM EDT
In force
5 hr
Issued by
NWS New York, NY
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Counties Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, CT, Putnam County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Westchester County, NY

The radar

The Brookhaven radar (KOKX), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Jul 9, 11:11 PM EDTFLASH FLOOD2 Ne Ossining, NYDOT reports flooding and road closure on NY 9A southbound at Ryder Road, all lanes blocked.
Jul 9, 11:52 PM EDTFLASH FLOODYorktown Heights, NYYorktown Police reports multiple roads flooded and impassable in Yorktown Heights and Mohegan Lake.
Jul 10, 12:32 AM EDTFLASH FLOOD1 W Mahopac, NYDOT reports flooding on NY 6N both directions at Potter Rd, all lanes blocked.
Jul 10, 12:55 AM EDTFLASH FLOOD3 Sw Jefferson Valley, NYDOT reports flooding on US 202 both directions at Yorktown all lanes blocked and local car dealership parking lot flooded.
Jul 10, 1:10 AM EDTFLASH FLOODYorktown Heights, NYLaw enforcement reports several vehicles stranded in flood waters. Occupants were able to walk away without the need for water rescues.
Jul 10, 2:04 AM EDTFLASH FLOOD1 Nw Jefferson Valley, NYDOT reports debris and flooding on Taconic State Parkway northbound at Yorktown all lanes blocked.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 6 storm reports to this flash flood warning; the first came 8 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 00:00Z, 3.1 hours before the alert went out and 82 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 00:00Z on 2023-07-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 325 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 00:00Z on 2023-07-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 93 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
325 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-14 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
589 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
93 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
133 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

175 
WGUS51 KOKX 100303
FFWOKX
CTC001-NYC079-087-119-100500-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FF.W.0017.230710T0303Z-230710T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service New York NY
1103 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Fairfield County in southern Connecticut...
  Eastern Putnam County in southeastern New York...
  Rockland County in southeastern New York...
  Westchester County in southeastern New York...

* Until 100 AM EDT.

* At 1103 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain 
  have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are 
  possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected 
  to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Stamford, Danbury, White Plains, Ossining, Tarrytown, Mount Kisco, 
  Dobbs Ferry, Mahopac, Lake Carmel, Nyack, Brewster, Greenwich, 
  Ridgefield, New Fairfield, Carmel, Hawthorne, Orangeburg, Upper 
  Nyack, Bedford and Yorktown Heights.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 4150 7376 4142 7341 4127 7351 4126 7352
      4098 7379 4104 7396

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

DS
5 follow-up statements
329 
WGUS71 KOKX 100350
FFSOKX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
1150 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

CTC001-100400-
/O.CAN.KOKX.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-230710T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Fairfield CT-
1150 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL FAIRFIELD COUNTY...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 600 AM EDT Monday for portions 
of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 200 PM EDT Monday for a 
portion of southern Connecticut.

LAT...LON 4150 7376 4145 7354 4143 7354 4141 7354
      4139 7354 4138 7354 4137 7355 4128 7360
      4125 7361 4111 7371 4110 7373 4109 7372
      4098 7379 4104 7396

$$

NYC079-087-119-100500-
/O.CON.KOKX.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-230710T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Putnam NY-Rockland NY-Westchester NY-
1150 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR 
EASTERN PUTNAM, ROCKLAND AND WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...

At 1150 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of 
rain have fallen, especially from near Croton-On-Hudson NNE through 
Jefferson Valley. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are 
possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected 
to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Ossining, Tarrytown, Mount Kisco, Dobbs Ferry, Mahopac, Lake Carmel, 
Nyack, Brewster, Carmel, Hawthorne, Orangeburg, Upper Nyack, 
Bedford, Yorktown Heights, Jefferson Valley, Croton-on-Hudson, 
Briarcliff Manor, Greenville and Pleasantville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4150 7376 4145 7354 4143 7354 4141 7354
      4139 7354 4138 7354 4137 7355 4128 7360
      4125 7361 4111 7371 4110 7373 4109 7372
      4098 7379 4104 7396

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

DS
980 
WGUS71 KOKX 100409
FFSOKX

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
1209 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023

NYC087-100419-
/O.CAN.KOKX.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-230710T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Rockland NY-
1209 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR ROCKLAND COUNTY...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

A Flood Watch remains in effect until 600 AM EDT for portions of 
northeast New Jersey and southeast New York.

LAT...LON 4150 7376 4145 7354 4138 7358 4116 7372
      4103 7382 4104 7389 4108 7389 4114 7389
      4116 7391

$$

NYC079-119-100500-
/O.CON.KOKX.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-230710T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Putnam NY-Westchester NY-
1209 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EDT EARLY THIS 
MORNING FOR CENTRAL PUTNAM AND NORTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTIES...

At 1209 AM EDT, Local law enforcement reported multiple road 
closures in Yorktown and Yorktown Heights. Showers and thunderstorms 
have been producing heavy rain across the warned area with 1.5 and 
2.5 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 
2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Ossining, Tarrytown, Mount Kisco, Mahopac, Lake Carmel, Brewster, 
  Carmel, Hawthorne, Yorktown Heights, Jefferson Valley, 
  Croton-on-Hudson, Briarcliff Manor, Pleasantville, Irvington, 
  Elmsford, Thornwood, Brewster Hill and Golden's Bridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4150 7376 4145 7354 4138 7358 4116 7372
      4103 7382 4104 7389 4108 7389 4114 7389
      4116 7391

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

DS
873 
WGUS51 KOKX 100425
FFWOKX
NYC079-119-100600-
/O.EXT.KOKX.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-230710T0600Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service New York NY
1225 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023

The National Weather Service in Upton has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Putnam County in southeastern New York...
  Northern Westchester County in southeastern New York...

* Until 200 AM EDT.

* At 1225 AM EDT, 911 call center has reported multiple roads closed 
  from around Croton NNE through Yorktown and Jefferson Valley. 
  Water rescues are also occurring with motorists trapped in flood 
  waters. Between 1.5 and 3.5 inches of rain have fallen. Flash 
  flooding is ongoing.

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...911 call center reported.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
           urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Ossining, Mahopac, Lake Carmel, Carmel, Yorktown Heights, 
  Jefferson Valley, Croton-on-Hudson and Brewster Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4150 7376 4146 7358 4139 7363 4120 7376
      4114 7380 4114 7384 4115 7387 4115 7388
      4116 7390 4116 7391

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

DS
580 
WGUS51 KOKX 100548
FFWOKX
NYC079-119-100700-
/O.EXT.KOKX.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-230710T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service New York NY
148 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023

The National Weather Service in Upton has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Putnam County in southeastern New York...
  Northern Westchester County in southeastern New York...

* Until 300 AM EDT.

* At 148 AM EDT, local law enforcement reported multiple road 
  closures in the warning area. Between 1.5 and 3 inches of rain 
  have fallen and flash flooding is already occurring.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Law enforcement reported.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Ossining, Mahopac, Lake Carmel, Carmel, Yorktown Heights, 
  Jefferson Valley, Croton-on-Hudson and Brewster Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4150 7376 4146 7358 4139 7363 4120 7376
      4114 7380 4114 7384 4115 7387 4115 7388
      4116 7390 4116 7391

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED

$$

DR
495 
WGUS51 KOKX 100652
FFWOKX
NYC079-119-100800-
/O.EXT.KOKX.FF.W.0017.000000T0000Z-230710T0800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service New York NY
252 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023

The National Weather Service in Upton has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Central Putnam County in southeastern New York...
  Northern Westchester County in southeastern New York...

* Until 400 AM EDT.

* At 252 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain across the 
  warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain have fallen. Flash 
  flooding is ongoing.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by heavy rain.

  SOURCE...Radar.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Ossining, Mahopac, Lake Carmel, Carmel, Yorktown Heights, 
  Jefferson Valley, Croton-on-Hudson and Brewster Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

&&

LAT...LON 4150 7376 4146 7358 4139 7363 4120 7376
      4114 7380 4114 7384 4115 7387 4115 7388
      4116 7390 4116 7391

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

DR

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS New York, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 9, 9:26 PM EDT, 1 hour 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 9, 9:26 PM EDT, 1 hour 37 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
926 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A wave of low pressure slowly moves into the region tonight
into Monday and then will slowly move northeast of the area
going into Monday night. For Monday night, weak high pressure
will gradually build in from the south and west. The center of
high pressure moves across Tuesday night into Wednesday then
offshore for the end of the week. This will give way to the next
frontal system and wave of low pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The flood watch remains in effect for Northeast NJ, NYC, and
the Lower Hudson Valley until 6AM Monday. The flood watch
remains in effect for Southern CT and Long Island until 2PM
Monday.

So far, the Lower Hudson Valley has received the most rainfall
thus far with between 2 to 6 inches in different locations with
some localized higher amounts. There were many reports of
flooding within this location.

The line of showers and thunderstorms has broken apart with more
stratiform rainfall and this line may very continue to weaken as
it pushes east this evening. However, there remain some
embedded heavier thunderstorms with torrential downpours. Also,
the CAMs convey more convection developing across the area late
this evening into overnight. This will prolong the flood
threat. There is strong convection already approaching from the
south off the coast of NJ and thinking here is that more
convection pops up and develops across different portions of the
region, more of the eastern half this time, late this evening
into the start of the overnight.

Further convective development is expected over parts of the
Lower Hudson Valley, parts of NYC, Southern Connecticut, and
Long Island overnight.

The forcing is positive vorticity advection from two shortwaves,
one moving across this evening and a stronger one approaching
overnight. Models show one area of higher low level Theta-E moving
in this evening and another one approaching Long Island from the
south overnight. Models also are keeping a relatively higher surface
based CAPE of near 1000 to 1500 J/kg along most coastal areas
through tonight helping keep the chance for thunderstorms.

This will be during a time when the precipitable waters across the
region remain near 2 inches. At the surface, there will be an
approaching wave of low pressure. E to SE flow ahead of this low
will have more upslope flow across the relatively higher terrain
across the interior so this will further enhance rainfall. In
addition the environment will remain very humid and containing deep
warm cloud depth, allowing for torrential rainfall to develop
rapidly with any shower or thunderstorm.

The HREF indicated increased probabilities for 3 inches of rain in 3
hours across parts of NYC and Long Island late tonight.

There is a marginal severe threat as bulk shear 0-6 km is near 25 to
30 kt with some wet microbursts possible with strong wind gusts.

Moisture laden boundary layer and light winds along with any lulls
in shower activity will lead to some fog development late tonight
out east initially, and then eventually the entire area. Kept
coverage of fog to patchy.

Forecast lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms continue but to start will be mainly
east of NYC, Northeast NJ, and Lower Hudson Valley. The CAMs
have the convection pushing east of Long Island and Southern CT
late in the morning. More pop-up shower and thunderstorm
activity remain in the forecast, most likely across eastern sections
for the afternoon with the cold pool aloft and upper level trough
axis moving in for the afternoon. There will be an increase in
forcing along with an unstable environment. However, the CAMs are
depicting coverage to be not as widespread compared to the previous
night with less favorable directional wind shear in the afternoon.
This will limit how organized the thunderstorms can develop.

The maximum precipitable waters shifts east of the area Monday
Monday afternoon into Monday night. The cold pool aloft with the
upper level trough axis will be in the region Monday afternoon
into early Monday night.

Models continue to indicate surface based CAPE of near 1000 to 1500
J/kg across much of the area Monday with a slight increase of bulk
shear 0-6 km, getting closer to 35 kt. Therefore, there remains a
marginal severe thunderstorm threat for strong wind gusts.
Again, though the less favorable directional wind shear with
more low level westerly flow backing to more southerly going
into the mid levels will limit how organized the thunderstorms
will get. Would expect the environment with the more low level
westerly flow to not be as conducive for coalescence and
merging as well as aggregation of thunderstorm cells. So, the
flooding threat will be decreasing as well but still a marginal
risk for flooding Monday afternoon into Monday evening.

Moisture laden boundary layer and light winds along with any lulls
in shower activity will lead to some fog development Monday
morning which may linger more out east. Kept coverage of fog to
patchy.

Forecast highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper low and trough move east of the region Monday night.
At the surface, low pressure is slow to move east of the area.
There still remain a bit of uncertainty with just how quickly
conditions clear out. Will maintain at least some chance POPs
early Monday night and they will gradually taper off after
midnight from west to east.

Any leftover showers across the far eastern sections of the CWA
come to an end early Tuesday morning. Then, we should get into
drier period of weather as high pressure builds over the area.

The next wave of low pressure along with a cold front will
approach Thursday and continue into the weekend. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast.

Temperatures will remain at or slightly above through the long
term. The warmest two days in the long term will be Wednesday
and Thursday with forecast highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Heat index values remain below heat advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A slow-moving frontal system will move across the area tonight
into Monday.

Generally looking at MVFR or IFR cigs through about midday
Monday, then improvement to VFR is expected. Rain with embedded
thunder is expected through about 06-08z, then precipitation
becomes more showery, with the continued threat of thunder
through about daybreak. There is some question about the threat
of thunder after midnight, so this will need to be monitored.
Will cover this threat with a tempo group, but may have to be
removed if the threat looks to diminish. Otherwise, the main
threat of rain exits the NYC terminals after 09-11z (slightly
later further east) with some IFR/MVFR cigs hanging around until
16-18z, then improvement to VFR is expected. There is a chance
of some additional shower activity Monday afternoon, however
confidence of timing and location is too low to include in the
TAF.

Winds will be mainly S-SE near 5-10 kt through tonight. Then
winds become more north/northwesterly behind the cold front.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for changing flight categories. Low
confidence of when any changes occur with storms.

Chance of some wind gusts to near 20kt Monday afternoon.

Low end chance of showers Monday afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: Mainly VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday: Mainly VFR.

Thursday and Friday. MVFR or lower possible with a chance of
showers and thunderstorms, mainly afternoon into night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
The short term forecast period through Monday will remain below
SCA thresholds for all forecast waters with a relatively weak
pressure gradient in place.

Much of the long term period will remain below SCA conditions on all
waters. For Thursday late afternoon into early Friday morning, winds
and seas increase with marginal SCA conditions across the ocean.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Already have had 3 to 6 inches of rain with locally higher
amounts in parts of the Lower Hudson Valley.

Total additional rainfall forecast of 1 to 3 inches across
the region tonight through Monday night. There will likely be
localized higher amounts. For the Lower Hudson Valley, NYC, and
Northeast NJ, the bulk of this rain will be through tonight. For
Southern Connecticut and Long Island the bulk of the rain will be
late this evening through Monday morning.

Flood chances are highest through tonight for Lower Hudson
Valley, Northeast NJ, and NYC and flood chances are highest this
evening through Monday morning for Southern Connecticut and Long
Island.

Ramapo River at Mahwah is forecast to go into flood tonight into
Monday. Other rivers and streams may exceed bankfull as well,
especially flashier faster responding ones and may remain
elevated after the rainfall has ended.

WPC has moderate excessive rain across Northeast NJ, Lower
Hudson Valley, parts of Southwest CT, Nassau NY, and extreme
western Suffolk NY and a slight risk for excessive rain for
much of the rest of Southern CT and Long Island tonight through
early Monday morning.

There is a slight risk for much of Southern CT and Twin Forks
for excessive rain on Monday and a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall for much of the rest of the forecast region.

Otherwise, no significant widespread rainfall expected Tuesday
onward into next weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate risk of rip currents for Nassau and Suffolk
county ocean beaches on Monday and a low risk of rip currents
for NYC ocean beaches on Monday. On Tuesday, all ocean beaches
have a moderate risk of rip currents.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for CTZ005>012.
NY...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for NYZ078>081-177-179.
     Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Monday for NYZ067>075-176-178.
NJ...Flood Watch until 6 AM EDT Monday for NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BC/JM
HYDROLOGY...BC/JM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JM
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 9, 2:46 PM EDT, 8 hours 17 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service New York NY
246 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-176-178-101900-
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union-Orange-
Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-
Northern Queens-Southern Queens-
246 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast New Jersey and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time that would meet NWS
warning criteria.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

CTZ005>012-NYZ078>081-177-179-101900-
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Southern Middlesex-Southern New London-Northwest Suffolk-
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Northern Nassau-Southern Nassau-
246 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut and
southeast New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-101900-
Long Island Sound East of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY to the
Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound East of the Mouth of the Connecticut River-
Long Island Sound West of New Haven CT/Port Jefferson NY-
New York Harbor-Peconic and Gardiners Bays-
South Shore Bays from Jones Inlet through Shinnecock Bay-
Moriches Inlet NY to Montauk Point NY out 20 nm-
Fire Island Inlet NY to Moriches Inlet NY out 20 nm-
Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm-
246 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather that would meet NWS
warning criteria is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

This Hazardous Weather Outlook provides a summary of potential
widespread hazardous weather events that may reach NWS warning
criteria. Most long fused NWS watches, warnings, and advisories in
effect are highlighted.

Please refer to the latest NWS forecasts for weather not meeting NWS
warning criteria.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 9, 8:38 PM EDT, 2 hours 25 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary
National Weather Service New York NY
838 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 PM     Flash Flood      2 N Mahopac             41.40N 73.74W
07/09/2023                   Putnam             NY   Public

            video of water rushing down Wixon Pond Rd &
            E Lake Blvd in Carmel, NY.

1234 PM     Flash Flood      2 SE Lake Carmel        41.45N 73.65W
07/09/2023                   Putnam             NY   Law Enforcement

            Fair street closed due to high water.

0110 PM     Flash Flood      1 SW Viola              41.12N 74.10W
07/09/2023                   Rockland           NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Corrects previous flash flood report from 1
            SW Viola. Water rescue Spook Rock Road & Joy
            Road.

0122 PM     Flash Flood      2 WSW Maybrook          41.47N 74.24W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            flooded basement.

0159 PM     Flash Flood      3 NNE Unionville        41.34N 74.54W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Flooded basement.

0300 PM     Flash Flood      Maybrook                41.49N 74.22W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Numerous flooded basements and several
            closed roads including Broadway in Maybrook.

0300 PM     Flash Flood      1 SE Middletown         41.44N 74.42W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Law Enforcement

            Several roads closed in Middletown due to
            high water including Sterling St, Wilson St,
            and Scranton Ave.

0315 PM     Flash Flood      Fort Montgomery         41.33N 73.99W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Vehicle in flood waters in Fort Montgomery
            on Exit 18.

0322 PM     Flash Flood      3 S Fort Montgomery     41.30N 73.98W
07/09/2023                   Rockland           NY   Public

            Flooding and a debris spill has closed 9W on
            Seven Lakes Dr. All lanes blocked.

0335 PM     Flash Flood      1 SSW Highland Falls    41.35N 73.97W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            9W is washed out in both directions.
            Boulders blocking the roadway. Between Fort
            Montgomery and Highland Falls.

0400 PM     Flash Flood      Highland Falls          41.36N 73.97W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            2 persons trapped in vehicle in flood
            waters. Fire department responding.

0410 PM     Flash Flood      1 NNW Highland Falls    41.38N 73.97W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Two people trapped in vehicle submerged in
            flood waters on Eagle Valley Road. Fire
            Department Responding.

0410 PM     Flash Flood      Cornwall                41.44N 74.04W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Emergency Mngr

            Cornwall Emergency Management reporting
            numerous flooded roadways, water rescues,
            and a few mudslides.

0419 PM     Flash Flood      1 ENE Highland Mills    41.36N 74.10W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Basement flooding on Rainbow drive. Fire
            department responding.

0423 PM     Flash Flood      1 WSW West Point        41.35N 74.05W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Dept of Highways

            NY 293 is closed due to flooding in both
            directions.

0433 PM     Flash Flood      1 SSE Scotchtown        41.47N 74.36W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Fire Department responding to vehicle
            trapped in flood waters on Ballard Road.

0440 PM     Flash Flood      4 WSW Fort Montgomery   41.31N 74.05W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Trained Spotter

            A portion of US 6 has collapsed near the
            traffic circle west of the Palisades
            Interstate Parkway.

0454 PM     Flash Flood      3 SW Fort Montgomery    41.31N 74.03W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Fire department responding to vehicle
            trapped in flood waters at the Long Mountain
            Parkway Traffic Ciricle.

0457 PM     Flash Flood      2 WNW Stony Point       41.24N 74.04W
07/09/2023                   Rockland           NY   Dept of Highways

            Flooding has closed Palisades Interstate
            Parkway at Gate Hill Road in both
            directions. There is also report of debris
            in the flooding.

0510 PM     Flash Flood      1 NNW Harriman          41.32N 74.15W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Vehicle submerged on Larkin Drive. Fire
            Department attempting to rescue.

0520 PM     Flash Flood      Goshen                  41.40N 74.33W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Fire Department reporting multiple homes
            with basement flooding in Goshen.

0520 PM     Flash Flood      1 NNE West Haverstraw   41.22N 73.98W
07/09/2023                   Rockland           NY   Emergency Mngr

            Several roads washed out near Cedar Brook.

0522 PM     Flash Flood      1 ENE Fort Montgomery   41.34N 73.98W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Vehicle trapped in flooding with Fire
            Department responding on Old State Road near
            9W.

0533 PM     Flash Flood      1 SSW Central Valley    41.32N 74.13W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Dept of Highways

            All lanes blocked due to flooding on US 6 in
            both directions near NY 17 and NY 32.

0537 PM     Flash Flood      1 SSW Fort Montgomery   41.33N 73.99W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Mutual Aid requested for several people
            trapped in flood waters at the Bear Mountain
            traffic circle at US 6 and US 202.

0607 PM     Flash Flood      2 WNW Peekskill         41.30N 73.95W
07/09/2023                   Westchester        NY   Dept of Highways

            Flooding has closed all lanes on US 6/202 in
            both directions between NY 9D and Annsville
            Circle. There is also rocks/debris in the
            roadway.

0640 PM     Flash Flood      2 NE Highland Mills     41.37N 74.10W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Vehicle and person trapped in nearby stream.
            Swift water rescue team responding.

0650 PM     Flash Flood      1 S Fort Montgomery     41.32N 73.99W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Fire Dept/Rescue

            Vehicle in Popolopen Creek near where bridge
            has been damaged due to flooding. Unknown if
            any occupants in the vehicle.

0704 PM     Flash Flood      2 NW Monroe             41.35N 74.22W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Dept of Highways

            All lanes closed on NY 17M in both
            directions due to flooding.

0730 PM     Flash Flood      1 NE Montrose           41.25N 73.92W
07/09/2023                   Westchester        NY   Public

            Metro North reports service is suspended on
            the Hudson Line from Croton to Poughkeepsie
            due to flooding on the tracks in Cortlandt.

0745 PM     Flash Flood      1 NNE Highland Falls    41.37N 73.96W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   911 Call Center

            Multiple people trapped in RVs at the
            Highland Falls RV Park. Flooding is ongoing
            and Fire Department is responding.

&&
Special weather statement, Jul 9, 8:56 PM EDT, 2 hours 7 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
856 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

CTZ009-100145-
Southern Fairfield CT-
856 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Fairfield
County through 945 PM EDT...

At 855 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Darien, or over Stamford, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Stamford, Norwalk, New Canaan, Greenwich, Westport and Darien.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4102 7363 4116 7360 4116 7359 4120 7351
      4119 7347 4116 7347 4116 7345 4115 7345
      4117 7339 4118 7338 4118 7337 4104 7343
      4102 7347
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 201DEG 8KT 4104 7351

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

JT
Local storm report, Jul 9, 9:05 PM EDT, 1 hour 58 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
905 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NE Stamford           41.03N 73.55W
07/09/2023  M39 MPH          Fairfield          CT   Mesonet

            Mesonet station EW9544. Marine thunderstorm
            wind gust.

&&

DSR
Local storm report, Jul 9, 9:44 PM EDT, 1 hour 19 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
944 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     Flash Flood      2 ESE Cornwall on Hudso 41.43N 73.99W
07/09/2023                   Orange             NY   Public

            Video shows rt 218 between Cornwall and West
            Point washed away. Time estimated.

&&

DSR
Local storm report, Jul 9, 10:55 PM EDT, 8 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
1055 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1034 PM     Flash Flood      1 N Yonkers             40.97N 73.87W
07/09/2023                   Westchester        NY   Dept of Highways

            DOT reports flooding and closure on Saw Mill
            River Parkway southbound between Exit 9 and
            Exit 20. Exit ramps blocked.

&&

DSR
Local storm report, Jul 9, 10:59 PM EDT, 4 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service New York NY
1059 PM EDT Sun Jul 9 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1008 PM     Flash Flood      1 WSW Ardsley           41.01N 73.85W
07/09/2023                   Westchester        NY   Dept of Highways

            DOT reports flooding and road closure on Saw
            Mill River Parkway northbound north of Exit
            17, all lanes closed.

&&

DSR

The office that day

Everything else NWS New York, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 9, 8:03 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningOKXOrange, Rockland22 hr
Jul 9, 8:23 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningOKX23 min
Jul 9, 8:50 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryOKXBronx55 min
Jul 9, 9:09 PM EDTAreal Flood WarningOKXOrange, Putnam, Rockland, Westchester7 hr
Jul 9, 9:22 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningOKXBronx, New York, Queens, Westchester82 min
Jul 9, 9:27 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningOKX51 min
Jul 9, 9:43 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryOKXBronx, Westchester2 hr
Jul 9, 10:15 PM EDTSpecial Marine WarningOKX60 min
Jul 9, 10:32 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryOKXPutnam, Westchester118 min
Jul 9, 11:31 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementOKXPutnam44 min
Jul 10, 2:31 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryOKXSuffolk119 min
Jul 10, 3:17 AM EDTSpecial Marine WarningOKX28 min
Jul 10, 3:28 AM EDTSpecial Marine WarningOKX47 min
Jul 10, 3:43 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementOKXSuffolk47 min
Jul 10, 3:57 AM EDTTornado WarningOKXSuffolk13 min
Jul 10, 4:04 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningOKXPutnam, Rockland, Westchester72 min
Jul 10, 4:17 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementOKXSuffolk43 min
Jul 10, 4:30 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryOKXSuffolk90 min
Jul 9, 8:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningOKXGreater Bridgeport Planning Region30 min
Jul 9, 8:56 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementOKX49 min
Jul 10, 5:30 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryOKXLower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region3 hr
Jul 10, 6:22 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryOKXLower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region4 hr
Jul 10, 7:13 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementOKX47 min
Jul 10, 7:48 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningOKXLower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region70 min
Jul 10, 9:13 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningOKXSoutheastern Connecticut Planning Region3 hr
Jul 10, 10:07 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningOKXSoutheastern Connecticut Planning Region2 hr
Jul 10, 10:27 AM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryOKXSoutheastern Connecticut Planning Region2 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in New York, 2023Flash Flood Warnings in Connecticut, 2023Every flash flood warning in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.