Tornado Warning 1, NWS Nashville, TN

381 
WWUS54 KOHX 161939
SVSOHX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
139 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

TNC085-162000-
/O.CON.KOHX.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-230216T2000Z/
Humphreys TN-
139 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CST FOR CENTRAL
HUMPHREYS COUNTY...
    
At 138 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Hurricane Mills, or 7 miles south of Waverly, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
central Humphreys County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3595 8759 3595 8761 3593 8763 3592 8786
      3602 8790 3615 8770
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 243DEG 33KT 3598 8779 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

Whitehead

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1212 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1056 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

Tweaked current hourly temperature, dewpoint, wind speed/wind
direction, and sky condition grids blending them with previously
forecasted associated hourly gridded late morning through early
afternoon hourly values. CONSShort 16/15Z initializing best and
depicts most realistically weather pattern evolution through
remainder of morning hours as compared to fellow CAMs solutions.
Today's latest SPC Convective Outlook as for areal coverage and
reasoning has not changed much for mid state region from previous
issuance. Current regional temperature trends generally in line
with forecasted afternoon highs. Current atmospheric status across
our area continues to support previous morning forecast issuance
reasoning. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track. Sent
out a few minutes ago a refreshed suite of forecast products.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 218 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

This is turning out to be a very interesting forecast for
February! I might have even forgotten for a bit that it is barely
mid February. We had a few strong storms overnight with the warm
sector but this has transitioned to a heavy rainfall threat at the
moment. 06Z sounding had a surface cape of 62 J/KG but a PW of
1.20 inches. Cancelled Watch #34 for our CWA as convection seems
to be elevated and HRRR shows the CAPE really dropping off through
10Z. Fully expect additional watches later this morning and
afternoon with the very strong cold front.

Severe parameters from the 06Z HRRR is very impressive today
especially this afternoon and early evening. It has very high
shear and helicity through the day. MUCAPE picks up near the
Tennessee River by 15/16Z to 1100+ J/KG and spreading to Nashville
Metro by 18/20Z of 1200+ J/KG and then dropping to 500-700 J/KG
by 23Z. Timing is very challenging as it seems like the potential
for severe weather will be through the day. It might be easier to
say when it will end and that will be with the cold front. Making
an educated guess...the best timing is just out a head and with
the front...or from noon west to 6 pm east. Please stay weather
aware as all severe weather types of straight line
winds...hail...and tornadoes will be possible. The HRRR supercell
composite and Significant Tornado Parameter really highlights
several areas across middle TN from 18-00Z. Please stay weather
aware and please encourage your social network to do the same.

Once the cold front passes it will be on the cold side tomorrow
with highs in the upper 30s to middle 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 218 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

One item to note is the mixed precipitation just before sunrise
Friday morning is no longer in the grids.

Dry weather stays around through the weekend with gradual
warming. By Sunday highs will be mid 50s to around 60 with mostly
sunny skies. The next rain chances will be on Monday with a
couple of impulses and a low/trof over Canada. Rain stays in the
extended forecast with thunderstorms returning again Tuesday
night(ish).

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

CKV/BNA/MQY/CSV...Significant variability in terminal
forecasts thru at least 17/01Z per convective line progression
W to E across mid state region. Thus expect numerous admendments
to terminal forecasts per multiple fluctuations in sustained wind
speeds/gusts, vsbys, shwrs &/or tstms, and ceiling heights. On
whole, generally VFR ceilings outside of shwrs/tstms. MVFR to IFR
ceilings during convection at or in vcnty of terminals thru at
least 17/01Z. Sustained sfc winds will slowly veer from initially
S/SW to N thru 17/18Z especially after sfc frontal passage across
entire mid state region after 17/06Z. Generally sustained wind
speeds around 15kts with gusts to around 30kts possible at times.
MVFR ceilings expected to continue 17/01Z-17/18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      34  43  25  52 /  80   0   0   0
Clarksville    33  42  25  51 /  40   0   0   0
Crossville     31  37  20  49 / 100  10   0   0
Columbia       33  42  22  51 /  80   0   0   0
Cookeville     33  38  23  49 / 100   0   0   0
Jamestown      31  37  22  49 / 100  10   0   0
Lawrenceburg   33  41  22  51 /  90   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   34  41  21  51 /  90   0   0   0
Waverly        31  41  24  50 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE.......JB Wright
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION.....JB Wright

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1252 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-171000-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
1252 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Strong to severe storms will be possible through early evening
hours tonight. Strong to damaging wind gusts will be the primary
threat, but isolated tornadoes, large hail, as well as heavy rain
leading to flooding will also be possible. The threat of severe
weather will come to an end with the passing of a cold front this
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed. Please relay any information
about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all
local and state guidelines.

Spotter Thunderstorm Reporting Criteria...
Tornado
Funnel Cloud
Flooding
Hail >= 1/2 Inch
Winds > 50 MPH(Measured)
Structural Damage
Trees or Power Lines Down

12/JB Wright

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1202 PM CST THU FEB 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 AM     FLASH FLOOD      DOVER                   36.48N 87.84W
02/16/2023                   STEWART            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAYCARE BEING EVACUATED DUE TO FLOODING
            APPROACHING BUILDING.

&&

SHAMBURGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1222 PM CST THU FEB 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NNE DOVER             36.53N 87.82W
02/16/2023                   STEWART            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAYCARE EVACUATED AT 119 ROBERTSON HILL ROAD
            DUE TO FLOODING APPROACHING BUILDING.

1216 PM     FLASH FLOOD      6 SW DOVER              36.41N 87.92W
02/16/2023                   STEWART            TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            UPPER STANDING ROCK ROAD CLOSED DUE TO
            FLOODING.

&&

SHAMBURGER