Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1056 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1056 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

Tweaked current hourly temperature, dewpoint, wind speed/wind
direction, and sky condition grids blending them with previously
forecasted associated hourly gridded late morning through early
afternoon hourly values. CONSShort 16/15Z initializing best and
depicts most realistically weather pattern evolution through
remainder of morning hours as compared to fellow CAMs solutions.
Today's latest SPC Convective Outlook as for areal coverage and
reasoning has not changed much for mid state region from previous
issuance. Current regional temperature trends generally in line
with forecasted afternoon highs. Current atmospheric status across
our area continues to support previous morning forecast issuance
reasoning. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track. Sent
out a few minutes ago a refreshed suite of forecast products.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 218 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

This is turning out to be a very interesting forecast for
February! I might have even forgotten for a bit that it is barely
mid February. We had a few strong storms overnight with the warm
sector but this has transitioned to a heavy rainfall threat at the
moment. 06Z sounding had a surface cape of 62 J/KG but a PW of
1.20 inches. Cancelled Watch #34 for our CWA as convection seems
to be elevated and HRRR shows the CAPE really dropping off through
10Z. Fully expect additional watches later this morning and
afternoon with the very strong cold front.

Severe parameters from the 06Z HRRR is very impressive today
especially this afternoon and early evening. It has very high
shear and helicity through the day. MUCAPE picks up near the
Tennessee River by 15/16Z to 1100+ J/KG and spreading to Nashville
Metro by 18/20Z of 1200+ J/KG and then dropping to 500-700 J/KG
by 23Z. Timing is very challenging as it seems like the potential
for severe weather will be through the day. It might be easier to
say when it will end and that will be with the cold front. Making
an educated guess...the best timing is just out a head and with
the front...or from noon west to 6 pm east. Please stay weather
aware as all severe weather types of straight line
winds...hail...and tornadoes will be possible. The HRRR supercell
composite and Significant Tornado Parameter really highlights
several areas across middle TN from 18-00Z. Please stay weather
aware and please encourage your social network to do the same.

Once the cold front passes it will be on the cold side tomorrow
with highs in the upper 30s to middle 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 218 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

One item to note is the mixed precipitation just before sunrise
Friday morning is no longer in the grids.

Dry weather stays around through the weekend with gradual
warming. By Sunday highs will be mid 50s to around 60 with mostly
sunny skies. The next rain chances will be on Monday with a
couple of impulses and a low/trof over Canada. Rain stays in the
extended forecast with thunderstorms returning again Tuesday
night(ish).

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

It's going to be a stormy day across Middle Tennessee. Storms are
already developing across the northwest portion of Middle
Tennessee, and more storms will move across the mid state this
afternoon with the fropa. Look for ceilings to remain MVFR/IFR
thru the TAF period, with LLWS also developing due to the strong
near-surface winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      71  34  43  25 / 100  80   0   0
Clarksville    70  33  42  25 / 100  40   0   0
Crossville     64  31  37  20 /  80 100  10   0
Columbia       69  33  42  22 / 100  80   0   0
Cookeville     67  33  38  23 /  90 100   0   0
Jamestown      66  31  37  22 /  90 100  10   0
Lawrenceburg   69  33  41  22 / 100  90   0   0
Murfreesboro   70  34  41  21 / 100  90   0   0
Waverly        68  31  41  24 /  90  40   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE.......JB Wright
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION.....Rose

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
215 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-170815-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
215 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe storms will be possible this morning through the
afternoon hours. Strong to damaging wind gusts will be the primary
threat, but isolated tornadoes as well as heavy rain leading to
flooding will also be possible. The threat of severe weather will
come to an end with the passing of the cold front.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following
all local and state guidelines.

12