Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
220 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday Night)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

Primary focus remains the severe threat for this afternoon and
evening. Instability is on the rise, with strong WAA behind the
warm front to our north. Cold front remains out to the west, and
should start developing additional convection west of the area
soon. Line of storms expected to move in the northwest part of the
area around 3-4p, Nashville area around 5-7p, and weakening later
in the evening as it moves out of the area around 9 or 10p. As
mentioned in earlier discussions, cold front/cold pool driven
storms may move a bit faster, so times can always change, so need
to remain weather aware today. Main threat remains damaging wind
gusts, but first strong storm of the afternoon went up fast just
north of Nashville, and showed a strong hail signature, indicating
that drier air aloft and steep lapse rates are indeed in place
ahead of the cold front. So large hail will also be a threat this
afternoon into the early evening. Plenty of moisture will also
allow for some heavy rainfall, so cant rule out some heavy
rainfall as well. Low level shear/helicity remains on the weaker
side, so the tornado threat is low, but not zero.

Monday looks to be dry, but upper trough over the Midwest will
allow for some additional showers and storms to develop with a
shortwave mainly for the southern zones on Monday night/Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

As that upper trough slowly moves east, additional showers and
storms will be possible Wednesday, but models continue to focus on
the southern half of the area. Isolated convection will be
possible on Thursday, with models mainly keeping us between
shortwaves so not expecting more scattered showers and storms.
Models and even ensembles really spread out late next week, with
the only agreement that we stay in this active pattern and keeping
chances for showers and storms into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

Already we are seeing widely scattered convection pop up in this
afternoon's pre-frontal air mass. Winds have increased
considerably from the SW, and will continue that way until after
this evening's fropa. We don't expect much additional activity
until a squall line comes through Middle Tennessee with the front
during the late afternoon and early evening. The HRRR has been
very consistent in its timing throughout the morning, and we have
been able to narrow the window to 1-2 hours for each of our
terminals. Look for some lingering light showers after the initial
line of convection comes through, with ceilings lowering to
MVFR/IFR for several hours following the fropa.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      61  77  58  80 /  90   0  20  40
Clarksville    58  76  55  81 /  50   0  10  20
Crossville     57  71  49  71 /  90  10  20  40
Columbia       60  78  56  78 / 100   0  40  50
Cookeville     58  72  51  74 /  90   0  10  30
Jamestown      58  71  49  73 /  90  10  10  30
Lawrenceburg   60  77  57  75 / 100   0  50  50
Murfreesboro   60  79  55  79 / 100   0  20  40
Waverly        59  78  58  76 / 100   0  50  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Barnwell
LONG TERM....Barnwell
AVIATION.....Rose

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
409 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     Hail             1 NW Lakewood           36.25N 86.65W
06/11/2023  E1.00 inch       Davidson           TN   Public

            Twitter photo of quarter sized hail at Old
            Hickory Country Club.

&&

JB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
435 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ESE Lakewood          36.23N 86.61W
06/11/2023                   Davidson           TN   Broadcast Media

            Trees down completely blocking the road.

&&

APB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
508 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     6 E Allardt             36.38N 84.77W
06/11/2023                   Fentress           TN   Public

            Report of possible tornado and multiple
            trees down.

&&

APB

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