Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
220 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday Night)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

Primary focus remains the severe threat for this afternoon and
evening. Instability is on the rise, with strong WAA behind the
warm front to our north. Cold front remains out to the west, and
should start developing additional convection west of the area
soon. Line of storms expected to move in the northwest part of the
area around 3-4p, Nashville area around 5-7p, and weakening later
in the evening as it moves out of the area around 9 or 10p. As
mentioned in earlier discussions, cold front/cold pool driven
storms may move a bit faster, so times can always change, so need
to remain weather aware today. Main threat remains damaging wind
gusts, but first strong storm of the afternoon went up fast just
north of Nashville, and showed a strong hail signature, indicating
that drier air aloft and steep lapse rates are indeed in place
ahead of the cold front. So large hail will also be a threat this
afternoon into the early evening. Plenty of moisture will also
allow for some heavy rainfall, so cant rule out some heavy
rainfall as well. Low level shear/helicity remains on the weaker
side, so the tornado threat is low, but not zero.

Monday looks to be dry, but upper trough over the Midwest will
allow for some additional showers and storms to develop with a
shortwave mainly for the southern zones on Monday night/Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 143 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

As that upper trough slowly moves east, additional showers and
storms will be possible Wednesday, but models continue to focus on
the southern half of the area. Isolated convection will be
possible on Thursday, with models mainly keeping us between
shortwaves so not expecting more scattered showers and storms.
Models and even ensembles really spread out late next week, with
the only agreement that we stay in this active pattern and keeping
chances for showers and storms into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

Already we are seeing widely scattered convection pop up in this
afternoon's pre-frontal air mass. Winds have increased
considerably from the SW, and will continue that way until after
this evening's fropa. We don't expect much additional activity
until a squall line comes through Middle Tennessee with the front
during the late afternoon and early evening. The HRRR has been
very consistent in its timing throughout the morning, and we have
been able to narrow the window to 1-2 hours for each of our
terminals. Look for some lingering light showers after the initial
line of convection comes through, with ceilings lowering to
MVFR/IFR for several hours following the fropa.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      61  77  58  80 /  90   0  20  40
Clarksville    58  76  55  81 /  50   0  10  20
Crossville     57  71  49  71 /  90  10  20  40
Columbia       60  78  56  78 / 100   0  40  50
Cookeville     58  72  51  74 /  90   0  10  30
Jamestown      58  71  49  73 /  90  10  10  30
Lawrenceburg   60  77  57  75 / 100   0  50  50
Murfreesboro   60  79  55  79 / 100   0  20  40
Waverly        59  78  58  76 / 100   0  50  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Barnwell
LONG TERM....Barnwell
AVIATION.....Rose

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
200 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

TNZ008-027>029-111945-
Davidson TN-Wilson TN-Trousdale TN-Sumner TN-
200 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Davidson, central Sumner, northwestern Wilson and west central
Trousdale Counties through 245 PM CDT...

At 200 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hendersonville, or 10 miles southwest of Gallatin, moving northeast
at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gallatin, Hendersonville, Goodlettsville, Millersville, Lakewood, Old
Hickory, Cottontown, Bethpage, Bledsoe Creek State Park and Green
Hill.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 95 and 99.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3622 8666 3633 8675 3658 8644 3640 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 235DEG 29KT 3631 8662

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Whitehead

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
202 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

TNZ008-009-029-111945-
Trousdale TN-Sumner TN-Macon TN-
202 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Sumner,
Macon and northern Trousdale Counties through 245 PM CDT...

At 202 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hartsville, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lafayette, Hartsville, Westmoreland, Red Boiling Springs and
Bethpage.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3663 8594 3650 8581 3636 8626 3654 8641
      3664 8628
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 235DEG 29KT 3643 8624

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Whitehead

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
205 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

TNZ028-030-062-111945-
Rutherford TN-Wilson TN-Smith TN-
205 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Smith,
northeastern Rutherford and eastern Wilson Counties through 245 PM
CDT...

At 205 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Walterhill, or 11 miles northeast of Murfreesboro, moving northeast
at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Watertown, Gordonsville, Hickman, South Carthage, Alexandria, Cedars
Of Lebanon State Park and Tuckers Crossroads.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 242 and 263.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3617 8582 3610 8594 3611 8596 3609 8599
      3608 8601 3609 8601 3608 8603 3609 8606
      3607 8606 3607 8605 3604 8605 3592 8626
      3603 8638 3630 8614 3630 8612 3633 8610
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 223DEG 31KT 3601 8630

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Whitehead

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
234 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 PM     Hail             1 SE Watertown          36.09N 86.13W
06/11/2023  E1.50 inch       Wilson             TN   Emergency Mngr

            1.5 inch hail reported along Neal Road in
            Watertown.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
238 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

TNZ008-009-112000-
Sumner TN-Macon TN-
238 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Sumner
County through 300 PM CDT...

At 238 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Westmoreland, or 13 miles north of Gallatin, moving northeast at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Westmoreland and Oak Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 8612 3649 8632 3655 8647 3665 8640
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 220DEG 38KT 3657 8636

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Whitehead

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
244 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

TNZ025-026-112030-
Dickson TN-Cheatham TN-
244 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Dickson
and central Cheatham Counties through 330 PM CDT...

At 243 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dickson, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dickson, Ashland City, White Bluff, Kingston Springs, Pegram, Burns,
Pleasant View and Charlotte.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 189 and 190.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3638 8705 3612 8700 3609 8704 3605 8742
      3616 8746
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 250DEG 25KT 3613 8736

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Whitehead