Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1230 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 918 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Convection trying to organize across western TN at this time.
Primary cold front is still back in central AR with impressive
dewpoint gradients noted. Pre frontal forcing over wester TN is
still expected to strengthen some although instability levels drop
toward the east. helicity and shear is still quite notable with 0-
500M helicity values of 400 M(2) S(-2) along and just east of the
developing pre frontal dynamics. Strongest storm right now is
located about 40 miles west of Wayne county.

For the forecast, wont change anything at this point. Hrrr still
brings the strongest storm potential to the I-65 corridor between
1pm and 1am. The tornado watch still remains and the situation will
continue to be monitored going forward. Best tornadic threat will be
across the western quarter where the moderate risk still resides.
Damaging straight line winds may end up being the primary threat
with perhaps some hail for our western counties

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday Night)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Bottom Line:
Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening and overnight with
damaging straight-line winds of 60-75 mph the primary threat
across all of Middle TN. Isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out
mainly west of I-65. This is still expected to be an overnight
event with main timing between 9PM and 3AM. Have multiple,
reliable ways that will wake you up in order to receive warnings
should they be issued for your area.

Forecast Details:
Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a potent upper-level low
over the northern Great Plains while latest obs indicate a deep
surface low over Iowa. Across our area, southerly surface winds
have been working to usher in favorable low-level moisture, and
this is evident on the observed soundings with notable improvement
from the 06Z, 12Z, to 18Z soundings. And while rain has been
impacting the area off-and-on all morning, we are starting to see
breaks in the clouds that should aid in destabilizing the
atmosphere. Wind shear, of course, remains very favorable for this
event. Mid-level flow will strengthen as the upper-level low
continues to approach, and the LLJ kicks in tonight with 850mb
wind speeds nearing or exceeding 70 knots by 03Z. Forecast
soundings show impressive 0-3km SRH anywhere between 400 and 700
m2/s2. But the main question remains how much instability will be
available, and even with this forecast package, models are in poor
agreement over this across our area. Aside from the numbers of
CAPE, there are some things they agree on. Highest instability
looks to be west of I-65, and in particular, in the quadrant south
of I-40. CAPE looks to fall of rapidly amongst all of the models
east of I-65. Thus, the messaging hasn't really changed with this
forecast package. With plentiful shear, damaging winds will be
possible areawide with the greatest chance for isolated tornadoes
west of I-65 where instability will be greatest.

The other thing to make mention of is that some CAMs have been
waffling all day on whether or not there will be pre-frontal
storms this evening across the west before the main event.
Confidence is low, but if they do develop, they will be in an
environment that offers more instability although not as much
shear. Thus, won't completely rule out an initial round of
isolated to scattered storms west of I-65 that could turn strong
to marginally severe. However, the main event is still expected
between that 9PM to 3AM window.

Finally, no changes were made to the Wind Advisory that begins
this evening. Southerly winds will strengthen ahead of our
convection and will stay strong post-frontal boundary. Gusts of 35
to 45 mph will be possible through Saturday afternoon. Those
stronger gusts may linger longer across the east through the early
evening hours Saturday. However, given the focus on tonight's
event first, will let the next shift take a closer look on whether
or not an extension in time will be warranted for that Wind
Advisory.

Otherwise, temperatures cool on Saturday in the wake of the cold
front and low temperatures Saturday night and into Sunday morning
will be close to the freezing mark, making widespread frost
likely.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Sunday should be a gorgeous day for Middle TN with plenty of sun,
light winds, and temperatures in the mid to upper-60's. As we head
into early next week, a more active pattern presents itself as
surface winds become southerly once again, and increasing moisture
leads to low PoPs. Models are still suggesting that additional
strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in the
Tuesday/Wednesday time frame with those details being ironed out
as we get closer. A wet pattern may even linger through the end of
next week as a stationary front parks itself to our south.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sat Apr 1 2023

Line of strong to severe storms is currently impacting terminals
and will continue through the overnight hours. CKV is clear for
the night. Tempos are in for the best possible timing of impact.
Wind gusts up to 40 kts are possible through the night with
lighter gusts (20-25 kts) staying in the forecast until 02/02Z.
VFR conditions will take over once storms clear the terminals.
Winds will be shifting to the NNW through the day tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      70  39  66  51 /   0   0   0  20
Clarksville    64  36  66  50 /   0   0   0  20
Crossville     68  33  63  45 /  10   0   0  10
Columbia       71  37  68  50 /   0   0   0  20
Cookeville     69  36  63  47 /   0   0   0  10
Jamestown      68  33  63  45 /   0   0   0  10
Lawrenceburg   72  37  68  50 /   0   0   0  20
Murfreesboro   72  36  67  49 /   0   0   0  20
Waverly        64  37  67  52 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-
Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-
Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van
Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

UPDATE.......21
SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Baggett

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
103 AM CDT SAT APR 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HARTSVILLE              36.39N 86.16W
04/01/2023                   TROUSDALE          TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN DOWNTOWN HARTSVILLE AT HAYES
            ST./RODGERS ST.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
107 AM CDT SAT APR 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S HOHENWALD           35.48N 87.56W
04/01/2023                   LEWIS              TN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            *** TORNADO POSSIBLE *** TREES AND LINES
            DOWN, ROAD IMPASSIBLE AND HEAVY RESIDENTIAL
            STRUCTURAL DAMAGE ALONG JAMES WHITEHEAD RD.
            IN GRINDERS CREEK.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
117 AM CDT SAT APR 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1218 AM     HAIL             GALLATIN                36.38N 86.45W
04/01/2023  M1.00 INCH       SUMNER             TN   PUBLIC

            TWITTER REPORT W/ PHOTO.

1251 AM     HAIL             4 SE LAFAYETTE          36.48N 85.98W
04/01/2023  M1.00 INCH       MACON              TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
122 AM CDT SAT APR 1 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0108 AM     HAIL             SPRING HILL             35.74N 86.92W
04/01/2023  M1.00 INCH       MAURY              TN   PUBLIC

            TWITTER REPORT W/ PHOTO.

&&

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