Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
151 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday Night)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

Observations early this afternoon show the cold front over
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois with a few thunderstorms
developing ahead of it. Across Middle TN, our temperatures have
warmed into the low to mid-90's with mostly clear skies. We still
have a Heat Advisory in place for most of the area until 7 PM.
Like this morning, did consider canceling it early with this
forecast package. But with our area still dry as of now and
current heat index values hovering around 103 to 107 degrees, will
continue to let it go. As far as thunderstorms for the rest of
today, hit-and-miss storms will continue to be possible ahead of
the cold front through this evening. With plenty of instability,
some of these may be strong to severe with damaging winds and
heavy rain the main threats. There's very little shear available
so do not expect much organization or for any strong storms to
stay strong for very long.

Activity looks to gradually diminish after sunset, but another
wave approaching the area will bring additional shower and
thunderstorm activity to the area starting Sunday morning. This
slow-moving wave will keep showers and storms over Middle TN into
Sunday night. Still plenty of instability available for a stronger
thunderstorm or two during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, look
for much cooler temperatures on Sunday behind the cold front.
Current forecast highs for Sunday are in the 80's, but a nice
rainy, cloudy day may even bring these forecast temps down a few
more degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

As we end the month of August, temperatures will stay on the
cooler side with highs through Wednesday in the mid to low-80's
(which is definitely an improvement from what we've been
experiencing lately). Meanwhile, a boundary will stall to the
southeast of Middle TN. This may be close enough to bring
scattered storms to southern and eastern portions of our area
early this week.

Confidence is low in what happens late next week as our attention
will likely be turning towards the Gulf. Models are showing a
tropical system impacting the Gulf Coast and the eastern CONUS
late next week. As expected this far out, its path is highly
uncertain. Did not include much in the way of precipitation
chances beyond Wednesday, but it will definitely be something to
watch.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

A diffuse frontal zone will pass through the area during the next
24 hours. This taf cycle presents low confidence regarding timing
and coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Any showers and storms
today will be isolated to scattered with main front still well to
our northwest. HREF and max diurnal heating suggest VCTS 21Z-02Z.
It does look like enough coverage will develop around CKV to
include a tempo for impacts at that site.

Overnight coverage of convection will be isolated at best.
Coverage should increase on Sunday as a wave approaches from the
northwest. Outside storms, conditions will be mainly VFR with
light winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      75  84  70  85 /  30  70  30  20
Clarksville    73  81  67  84 /  50  60  10   0
Crossville     68  82  64  78 /  20  70  40  50
Columbia       72  84  68  84 /  30  70  40  30
Cookeville     70  84  67  81 /  30  60  30  40
Jamestown      69  81  65  79 /  20  50  30  40
Lawrenceburg   71  85  68  83 /  20  70  60  40
Murfreesboro   72  86  69  85 /  30  70  30  30
Waverly        70  80  65  83 /  40  70  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-
Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-
Montgomery-Perry-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-
Trousdale-Wayne-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....13

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