Severe Thunderstorm Warning 228, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
151 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday Night)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

Observations early this afternoon show the cold front over
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois with a few thunderstorms
developing ahead of it. Across Middle TN, our temperatures have
warmed into the low to mid-90's with mostly clear skies. We still
have a Heat Advisory in place for most of the area until 7 PM.
Like this morning, did consider canceling it early with this
forecast package. But with our area still dry as of now and
current heat index values hovering around 103 to 107 degrees, will
continue to let it go. As far as thunderstorms for the rest of
today, hit-and-miss storms will continue to be possible ahead of
the cold front through this evening. With plenty of instability,
some of these may be strong to severe with damaging winds and
heavy rain the main threats. There's very little shear available
so do not expect much organization or for any strong storms to
stay strong for very long.

Activity looks to gradually diminish after sunset, but another
wave approaching the area will bring additional shower and
thunderstorm activity to the area starting Sunday morning. This
slow-moving wave will keep showers and storms over Middle TN into
Sunday night. Still plenty of instability available for a stronger
thunderstorm or two during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, look
for much cooler temperatures on Sunday behind the cold front.
Current forecast highs for Sunday are in the 80's, but a nice
rainy, cloudy day may even bring these forecast temps down a few
more degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 120 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

As we end the month of August, temperatures will stay on the
cooler side with highs through Wednesday in the mid to low-80's
(which is definitely an improvement from what we've been
experiencing lately). Meanwhile, a boundary will stall to the
southeast of Middle TN. This may be close enough to bring
scattered storms to southern and eastern portions of our area
early this week.

Confidence is low in what happens late next week as our attention
will likely be turning towards the Gulf. Models are showing a
tropical system impacting the Gulf Coast and the eastern CONUS
late next week. As expected this far out, its path is highly
uncertain. Did not include much in the way of precipitation
chances beyond Wednesday, but it will definitely be something to
watch.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

A diffuse frontal zone will pass through the area during the next
24 hours. This taf cycle presents low confidence regarding timing
and coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Any showers and storms
today will be isolated to scattered with main front still well to
our northwest. HREF and max diurnal heating suggest VCTS 21Z-02Z.
It does look like enough coverage will develop around CKV to
include a tempo for impacts at that site.

Overnight coverage of convection will be isolated at best.
Coverage should increase on Sunday as a wave approaches from the
northwest. Outside storms, conditions will be mainly VFR with
light winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      75  84  70  85 /  30  70  30  20
Clarksville    73  81  67  84 /  50  60  10   0
Crossville     68  82  64  78 /  20  70  40  50
Columbia       72  84  68  84 /  30  70  40  30
Cookeville     70  84  67  81 /  30  60  30  40
Jamestown      69  81  65  79 /  20  50  30  40
Lawrenceburg   71  85  68  83 /  20  70  60  40
Murfreesboro   72  86  69  85 /  30  70  30  30
Waverly        70  80  65  83 /  40  70  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-
Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-
Montgomery-Perry-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-
Trousdale-Wayne-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
326 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

TNZ025-026-057-059-262100-
Hickman TN-Williamson TN-Dickson TN-Cheatham TN-
326 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT DICKSON...NORTHWESTERN
WILLIAMSON...SOUTHERN CHEATHAM AND NORTHEASTERN HICKMAN COUNTIES
THROUGH 400 PM CDT...

At 325 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from McEwen to near White
Bluff. Movement was south at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dickson, White Bluff, Kingston Springs, Burns, Fairview, Charlotte,
Vanleer, Bon Aqua, and Lyles.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 161 and 187.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 1 and 15.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3623 8753 3627 8752 3608 8710 3586 8707
      3593 8752 3619 8756
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 003DEG 3KT 3621 8751 3606 8718

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Shamburger

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
336 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

TNZ005-006-023-025-026-262130-
Stewart TN-Dickson TN-Cheatham TN-Montgomery TN-Houston TN-
336 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2023

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN DICKSON...MONTGOMERY...
STEWART...HOUSTON AND NORTHWESTERN CHEATHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM
CDT...

At 336 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Murray to Clarksville. Movement was south at
10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clarksville, Ashland City, Dover, Erin, Tennessee Ridge, Big Rock,
Vanleer, Cumberland City, Slayden, Cheatham Dam, Palmyra, Woodlawn,
Land Between The Lakes, Houston County Airport, Indian Mound, and
Cunningham.

This includes Interstate 24 between mile markers 1 and 15.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3666 8785 3663 8785 3664 8725 3624 8701
      3624 8795 3631 8796 3645 8806 3647 8805
      3649 8806 3652 8804 3656 8803 3668 8807
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 348DEG 10KT 3655 8842 3654 8733

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Shamburger

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