Severe Thunderstorm Warning 216, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
656 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Muggy conditions were in place across Middle TN this morning. It
was quiet with mainly clear skies and patchy fog. We are looking
upstream to northern Missouri, and back to Oklahoma and Arkansas
where thunderstorms have been developing. We are expecting these
thunderstorms to move toward the Mid State as we go through the
morning hours. Short range models are varying considerably with
how well these storms hold together this morning. Given the
uncertainty, we will look to the HREF as a guide to hourly
trends. We think a few cells or small clusters will start to reach
our northwest areas shortly after daybreak. Scattered showers and
storms will then gradually spread southeastward through the
morning and into the afternoon. Since the storms will be coming
into a very muggy air mass, there will be time for heating and
destabilization. Coverage and intensity will increase as the
activity reaches areas along and east of I-65 late this morning
into the afternoon.

SPC has drawn a slight risk bubble over much of Middle TN today.
By early afternoon, cape values will exceed 3000 J/kg for much of
the area with steep low and mid level lapse rates. Precipitable
water will approach 2 inches. This will set the stage for some
very wet and windy storms. Not everybody will be impacted, but
those who do see approaching storms will want to secure things and
move indoors until the storms pass.

Outside storms, the day will be hot and humid. Heat index values
will creep just over 100 for much of the area. Most of the
thunderstorms will move off to our east by late today, so evening
plans should be in good shape other than the continued muggy air.

Additional scattered thunderstorms are expected late tonight through
Sunday as some weak impulses move overhead and weak surface
boundaries interact with the moist and unstable air. There is
nothing on the models to give confidence about specific timing or
organization of storms through Sunday, so rain chances will be
mostly in the 30 to 40 percent range. Once again, it will be hot
and humid, but nothing unusual for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Only isolated showers or storms are expected Sunday night through
midday Monday. An approaching cold front will bring increasing
storm chances Monday afternoon and evening, some possibly severe.
Before the front arrives, Monday will be hotter and still humid.
Compressional warming ahead of the front could push temps into the
mid or even upper 90s for some.

Relief will come Tuesday and Wednesday with cooler and drier air.
A mid level trough will cross the area as dry surface high
pressure comes down from the northwest. Lows will drop to the
upper 50s and low 60s with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Summer sizzle will only be taking a brief break. As heights
quickly rebound, temps will climb again late week. Some models
show the center of the big ridge from the central states shifting
to the Mid MS and TN valley for next weekend. That would mean a
very hot and mostly rain-free pattern with highs climbing well
into the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Per continued overall short term model blending solution timing,
continued mention best two hour tempo group for shwrs/tstms impacts
at terminal sites before 13/07Z. Within these tempo groups, NWLY
gusts up to 25kts possible and up to 35-40 kts higher elevations.
High end MVFR/low VFR ceilings. Mentioned vcnty shwrs terminals
before two hour best convective window per approaching convection.
Another distinct round of convection possible after 13/07Z, but
mentioned VCTS CKV/BNA per best tstm development possible/VCSH elsewhere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      92  74  91  76 /  50  30  40  20
Clarksville    91  74  89  75 /  50  50  30  30
Crossville     85  69  85  70 /  60  30  30  20
Columbia       92  73  91  75 /  50  30  30  10
Cookeville     87  71  87  72 /  60  40  40  30
Jamestown      86  69  85  70 /  60  40  30  30
Lawrenceburg   92  72  91  74 /  60  30  40  10
Murfreesboro   93  72  92  75 /  50  30  40  20
Waverly        89  72  90  74 /  40  50  50  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....JB Wright

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1140 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1132 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 SSW Fairview          35.91N 87.16W
08/12/2023                   Williamson         TN   Emergency Mngr

            Report of trees down with scattered power
            outages in the Fairview area.

&&

APB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1143 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1137 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 SSW Fairview          35.96N 87.14W
08/12/2023                   Williamson         TN   Amateur Radio

            Tree down on Hwy 100 near Whippoorwill Hill
            blocking both lanes of traffic.

&&

APB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1144 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

TNZ008-027>029-121715-
Davidson TN-Wilson TN-Trousdale TN-Sumner TN-
1144 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of east central
Davidson, southeastern Sumner, Wilson and Trousdale Counties through
1215 PM CDT...

At 1143 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Gallatin to near Hermitage. Movement was
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gallatin, Lebanon, Hartsville, Hendersonville, Mount Juliet,
Hermitage, Rural Hill, Belinda City, Green Hill, Tuckers Crossroads,
Bledsoe Creek State Park, Dickerson Chapel Recreation Area,
Cottontown, Percy Priest Lake and Gladeville.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between mile markers 219 and 245.
 Interstate 840 between mile markers 68 and 76.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

&&

LAT...LON 3644 8610 3603 8619 3613 8664 3647 8654
TIME...MOT...LOC 1643Z 284DEG 28KT 3643 8650 3615 8659

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Shamburger

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1158 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1147 AM     Funnel Cloud     3 WSW Brentwood         35.98N 86.83W
08/12/2023                   Williamson         TN   Trained Spotter

            Funnel cloud reported 2 miles north of
            downtown Franklin along Highway 31.

&&

APB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1209 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NNW Burns             36.09N 87.33W
08/12/2023                   Dickson            TN   Trained Spotter

            Photo of tree down in Dickson on Hurt Lane.

&&

APB

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1220 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 S Greenbrier          36.40N 86.80W
08/12/2023                   Robertson          TN   Trained Spotter

            Trees down and estimated wind gusts of 60
            mph...pea size hail...power
            outages...several trees hit by lightning.

&&