Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
656 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Muggy conditions were in place across Middle TN this morning. It
was quiet with mainly clear skies and patchy fog. We are looking
upstream to northern Missouri, and back to Oklahoma and Arkansas
where thunderstorms have been developing. We are expecting these
thunderstorms to move toward the Mid State as we go through the
morning hours. Short range models are varying considerably with
how well these storms hold together this morning. Given the
uncertainty, we will look to the HREF as a guide to hourly
trends. We think a few cells or small clusters will start to reach
our northwest areas shortly after daybreak. Scattered showers and
storms will then gradually spread southeastward through the
morning and into the afternoon. Since the storms will be coming
into a very muggy air mass, there will be time for heating and
destabilization. Coverage and intensity will increase as the
activity reaches areas along and east of I-65 late this morning
into the afternoon.

SPC has drawn a slight risk bubble over much of Middle TN today.
By early afternoon, cape values will exceed 3000 J/kg for much of
the area with steep low and mid level lapse rates. Precipitable
water will approach 2 inches. This will set the stage for some
very wet and windy storms. Not everybody will be impacted, but
those who do see approaching storms will want to secure things and
move indoors until the storms pass.

Outside storms, the day will be hot and humid. Heat index values
will creep just over 100 for much of the area. Most of the
thunderstorms will move off to our east by late today, so evening
plans should be in good shape other than the continued muggy air.

Additional scattered thunderstorms are expected late tonight through
Sunday as some weak impulses move overhead and weak surface
boundaries interact with the moist and unstable air. There is
nothing on the models to give confidence about specific timing or
organization of storms through Sunday, so rain chances will be
mostly in the 30 to 40 percent range. Once again, it will be hot
and humid, but nothing unusual for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 255 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Only isolated showers or storms are expected Sunday night through
midday Monday. An approaching cold front will bring increasing
storm chances Monday afternoon and evening, some possibly severe.
Before the front arrives, Monday will be hotter and still humid.
Compressional warming ahead of the front could push temps into the
mid or even upper 90s for some.

Relief will come Tuesday and Wednesday with cooler and drier air.
A mid level trough will cross the area as dry surface high
pressure comes down from the northwest. Lows will drop to the
upper 50s and low 60s with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Summer sizzle will only be taking a brief break. As heights
quickly rebound, temps will climb again late week. Some models
show the center of the big ridge from the central states shifting
to the Mid MS and TN valley for next weekend. That would mean a
very hot and mostly rain-free pattern with highs climbing well
into the 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

Per continued overall short term model blending solution timing,
continued mention best two hour tempo group for shwrs/tstms impacts
at terminal sites before 13/07Z. Within these tempo groups, NWLY
gusts up to 25kts possible and up to 35-40 kts higher elevations.
High end MVFR/low VFR ceilings. Mentioned vcnty shwrs terminals
before two hour best convective window per approaching convection.
Another distinct round of convection possible after 13/07Z, but
mentioned VCTS CKV/BNA per best tstm development possible/VCSH elsewhere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      92  74  91  76 /  50  30  40  20
Clarksville    91  74  89  75 /  50  50  30  30
Crossville     85  69  85  70 /  60  30  30  20
Columbia       92  73  91  75 /  50  30  30  10
Cookeville     87  71  87  72 /  60  40  40  30
Jamestown      86  69  85  70 /  60  40  30  30
Lawrenceburg   92  72  91  74 /  60  30  40  10
Murfreesboro   93  72  92  75 /  50  30  40  20
Waverly        89  72  90  74 /  40  50  50  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....JB Wright

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
919 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

TNZ005-023-121500-
Stewart TN-Houston TN-
919 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Stewart and
northeastern Houston Counties through 1000 AM CDT...

At 918 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Paris Landing State Park, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dover, Erin, Tennessee Ridge, Big Rock, Cumberland City, Land Between
The Lakes, Houston County Airport and Indian Mound.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If on or near Kentucky Lake, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3666 8785 3663 8785 3664 8764 3637 8759
      3622 8768 3633 8797 3645 8806 3656 8803
      3668 8807
TIME...MOT...LOC 1418Z 289DEG 26KT 3652 8816

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

TNZ005-006-023-025-121530-
Stewart TN-Dickson TN-Montgomery TN-Houston TN-
1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Dickson,
Montgomery, Stewart and Houston Counties through 1030 AM CDT...

At 959 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a large cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from Woodlawn to Dover to Erin.
Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Clarksville, Dover, Erin, Tennessee Ridge, Big Rock, Vanleer,
Cumberland City, Slayden, Palmyra, Woodlawn, Land Between The Lakes,
Indian Mound and Cunningham.

This includes Interstate 24 between mile markers 1 and 17.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3666 8785 3663 8785 3664 8712 3656 8714
      3655 8712 3646 8712 3644 8715 3642 8715
      3643 8717 3641 8718 3641 8721 3635 8728
      3631 8730 3614 8749 3620 8759 3620 8763
      3635 8798 3645 8806 3656 8803 3668 8807
TIME...MOT...LOC 1459Z 260DEG 29KT 3650 8753 3647 8794 3627 8756

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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