Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS Omaha, NE

234 
WWUS53 KOAX 150030
SVSOAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
730 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

IAC129-NEC025-131-150130-
/O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-230415T0130Z/
Mills IA-Otoe NE-Cass NE-
730 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MILLS...NORTH CENTRAL OTOE AND EASTERN CASS
COUNTIES...

At 729 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 4 miles south of
Avoca, or 13 miles west of Nebraska City, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Emergency management. At 727 PM, golf ball sized hail was 
         reported 1 mile north of Syracuse.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Avoca around 735 PM CDT.
  Union and Nehawka around 745 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this severe thunderstorm include
Murray, Beaver Lake, Plattsmouth, Pacific Junction and Glenwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4091 9578 4090 9581 4089 9581 4087 9585
      4084 9584 4071 9597 4073 9627 4106 9589
      4105 9588 4106 9588 4106 9565
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 210DEG 33KT 4073 9612 

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

CA

918 
WWUS53 KOAX 150112
SVSOAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
812 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

NEC131-150120-
/O.CAN.KOAX.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-230415T0130Z/
Otoe NE-
812 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL OTOE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. However, 
a severe thunderstorm warning remains in effect for portions of 
northwestern Otoe County.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southwestern Iowa...and southeastern and east central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4091 9578 4098 9597 4106 9589 4105 9588
      4106 9588 4106 9565
TIME...MOT...LOC 0110Z 210DEG 33KT 4106 9587 

$$

IAC129-NEC025-150130-
/O.CON.KOAX.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-230415T0130Z/
Mills IA-Cass NE-
812 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN MILLS AND NORTHEASTERN CASS COUNTIES...

At 810 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 4 miles north of
Plattsmouth, or 4 miles southeast of Offutt AFB, moving northeast at
40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Emergency management. This storm has a history of producing 
         large hail.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Glenwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4091 9578 4098 9597 4106 9589 4105 9588
      4106 9588 4106 9565
TIME...MOT...LOC 0110Z 210DEG 33KT 4106 9587 

HAIL THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

CA

738 
WWUS53 KOAX 150130
SVSOAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley Nebraska
830 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

IAC129-NEC025-150140-
/O.EXP.KOAX.SV.W.0013.000000T0000Z-230415T0130Z/
Mills IA-Cass NE-
830 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MILLS AND
NORTHEASTERN CASS COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southwestern Iowa...and southeastern and east central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4091 9578 4098 9597 4106 9589 4105 9588
      4106 9588 4106 9565
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 210DEG 33KT 4121 9576 

$$

CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
631 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 420 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

Key Messages:

 - Widely scattered severe storms capable of hail up to ping-pong
   ball size and damaging wind gusts of up to 65 to 75 mph are
   expected between 6 PM and 10 PM. Locations southeast of a
   Beatrice, NE to Harlan, IA line are most likely to be
   affected.

 - Much cooler Saturday with northwest wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph.
   Winds could gust as high as 50 mph Sunday.

 - Light snow is possible on Saturday night. Accumulations aren't
   likely.

The cold front has pushed past the NWS office in Valley and is
nearing the Omaha and Lincoln metros. Temps have languished in
the 50s and 60s where the front pushed through earlier this
morning. Temps still read 80s ahead of it. The front has been
running about 2 hours ahead of most CAMs. Showers and
thunderstorms will be anafrontal... trailing the leading edge of
the front. Still on track to see development of strong to severe
weather later this evening as the front sinks southeast and the
surface low sweeping north along the front. Already some
convection firing in south central Kansas. Expect it to push into
our area along or east of a line from Beatrice to Lincoln to
Omaha to Harlan, IA. Best chances will be in far southeast
Nebraska.

Still capped at this point, but expect that cap to erode with the
increasing moisture and improving lapse rates. Storms will still
be high- based. The moderate moisture return this afternoon will
probably not be enough to prevent downdraft gusts peaking at 65 to
75mph. Expect initial development to be discrete supercells with
the best threat of hail and wind... but expected to transition to
an MCS as it sweeps into south-central Iowa and Missouri.

Occasional showers and rumbles of thunder are expected overnight
tonight, but the severe threat will be greatly diminished. Total
QPF will measure over an inch for areas lucky enough to find
themselves under the activity multiple times. 0.2" is a safer bet
for the rest.

Showers are possible on Saturday morning, but most areas will be
dry until a mid-level system streaks northeast through the area
once again. Expect less thunder with this next round. As temps
slip into the mid to lower 30s on Saturday night, some snow will
mix in, especially in western Iowa north of I-80. Accumulations
will be minimal at best (0" to 0.2") but even a few flakes is
noteworthy after a week of 80s.

Also worth a note is the brisk weather forecast for Sunday as
northwesterly winds howl as they wrap around the departing system.
They'll be breezy on Saturday, too, but Sunday's gusts are
currently forecast to peak near 50mph. Combined with highs in the
50s, there will be a bite in the air. Expect much of the day to
have apparent temps in the 30s.

Temps will moderate next week under a developing ridge with highs
in the 70s by Tuesday. The pattern may return chances of storms
with a shortwave pushing through on Tuesday night and southwest
flow ejecting waves into the Great Plains through the second half
of the week. Next weekend looks cool again, if the deterministic
models have the right idea with an amplified upper level trof in
the central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

Thunderstorms impacting the KOMA TAF at TAF issuance, and then
again in the 02-05z time period. Thunderstorms may hold off at
KLNK until 1-2z, but it will be close. Otherwise, conditions
become MVFR and eventually IFR at all TAFs through the period with
scattered showers. Northerly winds at 15 to 27 mph through the
period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...DeWald

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
420 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-151130-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
420 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

Widely scattered severe storms capable of hail up to ping-pong ball
size and damaging wind gusts of up to 65 to 75 mph are expected
between 6 PM and midnight. Locations south of a Beatrice, NE to
Glenwood, IA line are most likely to be affected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Friday

Strong northwest winds are expected Sunday with gusts of 40 to 50
mph possible. The winds will contribute to very high rangeland
fire danger Sunday afternoon for locations west of a Hartington to
Wahoo to Beatrice line.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated, but any severe weather
reports are appreciated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
705 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             2 W PAPILLION           41.15N 96.08W
04/14/2023  E1.00 INCH       SARPY              NE   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: QUARTER (1.00 IN.).

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
707 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 PM     HAIL             PALMYRA                 40.70N 96.39W
04/14/2023  E1.25 INCH       OTOE               NE   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: HALF DOLLAR (1.25 IN.).

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
709 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 PM     HAIL             6 S BURCHARD            40.07N 96.35W
04/14/2023  E1.00 INCH       PAWNEE             NE   PUBLIC

&&

LM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
718 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SE OMAHA              41.24N 95.99W
04/14/2023                   DOUGLAS            NE   PUBLIC

            NEAR 48TH AND WOOLWORTH.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
719 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             3 SW ELMWOOD            40.81N 96.33W
04/14/2023  E0.88 INCH       CASS               NE   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
726 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 PM     HAIL             6.5 S BURCHARD          40.06N 96.35W
04/14/2023  M1.25 INCH       PAWNEE             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&