Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Omaha, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
631 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 420 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

Key Messages:

 - Widely scattered severe storms capable of hail up to ping-pong
   ball size and damaging wind gusts of up to 65 to 75 mph are
   expected between 6 PM and 10 PM. Locations southeast of a
   Beatrice, NE to Harlan, IA line are most likely to be
   affected.

 - Much cooler Saturday with northwest wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph.
   Winds could gust as high as 50 mph Sunday.

 - Light snow is possible on Saturday night. Accumulations aren't
   likely.

The cold front has pushed past the NWS office in Valley and is
nearing the Omaha and Lincoln metros. Temps have languished in
the 50s and 60s where the front pushed through earlier this
morning. Temps still read 80s ahead of it. The front has been
running about 2 hours ahead of most CAMs. Showers and
thunderstorms will be anafrontal... trailing the leading edge of
the front. Still on track to see development of strong to severe
weather later this evening as the front sinks southeast and the
surface low sweeping north along the front. Already some
convection firing in south central Kansas. Expect it to push into
our area along or east of a line from Beatrice to Lincoln to
Omaha to Harlan, IA. Best chances will be in far southeast
Nebraska.

Still capped at this point, but expect that cap to erode with the
increasing moisture and improving lapse rates. Storms will still
be high- based. The moderate moisture return this afternoon will
probably not be enough to prevent downdraft gusts peaking at 65 to
75mph. Expect initial development to be discrete supercells with
the best threat of hail and wind... but expected to transition to
an MCS as it sweeps into south-central Iowa and Missouri.

Occasional showers and rumbles of thunder are expected overnight
tonight, but the severe threat will be greatly diminished. Total
QPF will measure over an inch for areas lucky enough to find
themselves under the activity multiple times. 0.2" is a safer bet
for the rest.

Showers are possible on Saturday morning, but most areas will be
dry until a mid-level system streaks northeast through the area
once again. Expect less thunder with this next round. As temps
slip into the mid to lower 30s on Saturday night, some snow will
mix in, especially in western Iowa north of I-80. Accumulations
will be minimal at best (0" to 0.2") but even a few flakes is
noteworthy after a week of 80s.

Also worth a note is the brisk weather forecast for Sunday as
northwesterly winds howl as they wrap around the departing system.
They'll be breezy on Saturday, too, but Sunday's gusts are
currently forecast to peak near 50mph. Combined with highs in the
50s, there will be a bite in the air. Expect much of the day to
have apparent temps in the 30s.

Temps will moderate next week under a developing ridge with highs
in the 70s by Tuesday. The pattern may return chances of storms
with a shortwave pushing through on Tuesday night and southwest
flow ejecting waves into the Great Plains through the second half
of the week. Next weekend looks cool again, if the deterministic
models have the right idea with an amplified upper level trof in
the central CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

Thunderstorms impacting the KOMA TAF at TAF issuance, and then
again in the 02-05z time period. Thunderstorms may hold off at
KLNK until 1-2z, but it will be close. Otherwise, conditions
become MVFR and eventually IFR at all TAFs through the period with
scattered showers. Northerly winds at 15 to 27 mph through the
period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...DeWald

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
420 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-151130-
Monona-Harrison-Shelby-Pottawattamie-Mills-Montgomery-Fremont-
Page-Knox-Cedar-Thurston-Antelope-Pierce-Wayne-Boone-Madison-
Stanton-Cuming-Burt-Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-
Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-
Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Nemaha-Pawnee-Richardson-
420 PM CDT Fri Apr 14 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Iowa...west central Iowa...east central Nebraska...northeast
Nebraska and southeast Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday

Widely scattered severe storms capable of hail up to ping-pong ball
size and damaging wind gusts of up to 65 to 75 mph are expected
between 6 PM and midnight. Locations south of a Beatrice, NE to
Glenwood, IA line are most likely to be affected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Friday

Strong northwest winds are expected Sunday with gusts of 40 to 50
mph possible. The winds will contribute to very high rangeland
fire danger Sunday afternoon for locations west of a Hartington to
Wahoo to Beatrice line.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated, but any severe weather
reports are appreciated.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
812 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 ENE OMAHA             41.29N 95.93W
04/14/2023                   DOUGLAS            NE   PUBLIC

            WATER OVER ROADWAY NEAR LOCUST AND CARTER
            LAKESHORE DRIVE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
813 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSE COUNCIL BLUFFS    41.22N 95.85W
04/14/2023                   POTTAWATTAMIE      IA   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: STREET/ROAD FLOODING.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
841 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0837 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE STERLING           40.43N 96.35W
04/14/2023                   JOHNSON            NE   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: 1-INCH TREE LIMBS BROKEN;
            SHINGLES BLOWN OFF.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
844 PM CDT FRI APR 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S WYMORE              40.05N 96.67W
04/14/2023                   GAGE               NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            CAR LIFTED AND SPUN AROUND NEAR US 77 AND
            NEBRASKA HIGHWAY 8. SIGNS BLOWN DOWN. POWER
            LINES DOWN.

&&