Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
730 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Thunderstorms expected across central Minnesota into western
  Wisconsin this afternoon into the evening. Damaging wind and large hail
  will be the main risks.

- Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday are likely,
  strong storms unlikely.

Rest of Today... Ample forcing at multiple levels from a jet streak
to 500 mb shortwave provides plenty of forcing to get convection
going this afternoon. Temperatures in the low to mid 80s combined
with dew points in the 60s will provide ample surface based
instability for storms. Shear is rather unidirectional so not
expected a tornado threat. This will be more of a hail and wind
threat based upon the previously described environment. The main
uncertainty right now for the rest of the afternoon and evening is
not will storms form, but the exact location. A Severe Thunderstorm
Watch is in effect for much of the area along the current bubbling
cumulus clouds in western Minnesota and east into Wisconsin. It is
this area that will be favored for convective initiation and
continued storms. Looking towards the CAMs there is still a spread
throughout central and southern Minnesota for the initiation
location.

Saturday and Sunday... High pressure moves in behind Friday's storms
for a nice summer day. Biggest concern will be a chance for some fog
in the morning, especially for locations that get ample rainfall from
Friday's thunderstorms. By Sunday a pronounced wave will moved into
the Upper Midwest providing broad forcing for precipitation. While
precipitable water values are not anomalously high they are high
enough for widespread rain. There is widespread agreement in the
GEFS, EPS, and CMC ensemble system in this rain event. Thus the high
PoP, but what continues to vary are QPF amounts. For the Twin Cities,
as an example, the primary ensemble cluster extends from 0.2 up to
1.2 inches with multiple outliers well above that. The main severe
risk appears to be to the south with our location remaining within
the cool sector of this larger system. So expecting more of a rain
event with a chance for some thunderstorms in areas where some
localized instability supports it. Sunday into Sunday night is the
most likely time for this rain.

Monday through Friday... Some wrap around around rain could be seen
on Monday, but overall dry until midweek. The deterministic global
models show a frontal passage midweek and that would be out next
chance for rain and thunderstorms. Still more of a spread in the
ensembles, so PoPs remain low at this time. High pressure behind this
front would favor a dry end to the week. Temperatures are rather
uncertain for next week based on a wide spread in the ensembles. The
GEFS is generally running hot with the EPS running mild and the CMC
somewhere between them on average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Outside of EAU, main TS activity has moved east of MPX terminals as
the 00z TAF period starts. The center of the shortwave that kicked
off all of this activity is currently just northwest of AXN and has
some scattered convection heading toward AXN, but it is on a downward
trend. By 3z, all storms will be done in the MPX area and attention
then turns to fog potential tonight. Think fog threat will be tied to
who got rain today, so brought a mention into RNH/EAU. Some fog is
possible for MSP as well, though it's really difficult to get
radiational fog at MSP. For Saturday, the weather will be quite, but
to expect NW winds to gust into the 20s kts, with a cu field making
it about as far south as the MN River Valley.

KMSP...We will have light winds and clear skies tonight and given the
late afternoon TS, there will be some fog potential, but given this
is MSP, kept that mention out for now.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...MVFR/-SHRA likely aftn/evening. Chc TS. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
Mon...AM MVFR/-SHRA likely. Chc IFR. Wind N 10G20kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...MPG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
302 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
122015-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
302 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms likely with hail and wind are the primary threats.
See watch and warning statements for more information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is another chance of thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday
evening, severe weather is not likely, but still possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
802 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     Hail             2 NW North St. Paul     45.03N 93.02W
08/11/2023  E0.75 inch       Ramsey             MN   Public

            Report from mPING: Dime (0.75 in.).

&&

TDH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
803 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0537 PM     Hail             4 NE Richfield          44.92N 93.22W
08/11/2023  E2.00 inch       Hennepin           MN   Public

            Report from mPING: Hen Egg (2.00 in.).

&&

TDH

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