Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
730 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Thunderstorms expected across central Minnesota into western
  Wisconsin this afternoon into the evening. Damaging wind and large hail
  will be the main risks.

- Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday are likely,
  strong storms unlikely.

Rest of Today... Ample forcing at multiple levels from a jet streak
to 500 mb shortwave provides plenty of forcing to get convection
going this afternoon. Temperatures in the low to mid 80s combined
with dew points in the 60s will provide ample surface based
instability for storms. Shear is rather unidirectional so not
expected a tornado threat. This will be more of a hail and wind
threat based upon the previously described environment. The main
uncertainty right now for the rest of the afternoon and evening is
not will storms form, but the exact location. A Severe Thunderstorm
Watch is in effect for much of the area along the current bubbling
cumulus clouds in western Minnesota and east into Wisconsin. It is
this area that will be favored for convective initiation and
continued storms. Looking towards the CAMs there is still a spread
throughout central and southern Minnesota for the initiation
location.

Saturday and Sunday... High pressure moves in behind Friday's storms
for a nice summer day. Biggest concern will be a chance for some fog
in the morning, especially for locations that get ample rainfall from
Friday's thunderstorms. By Sunday a pronounced wave will moved into
the Upper Midwest providing broad forcing for precipitation. While
precipitable water values are not anomalously high they are high
enough for widespread rain. There is widespread agreement in the
GEFS, EPS, and CMC ensemble system in this rain event. Thus the high
PoP, but what continues to vary are QPF amounts. For the Twin Cities,
as an example, the primary ensemble cluster extends from 0.2 up to
1.2 inches with multiple outliers well above that. The main severe
risk appears to be to the south with our location remaining within
the cool sector of this larger system. So expecting more of a rain
event with a chance for some thunderstorms in areas where some
localized instability supports it. Sunday into Sunday night is the
most likely time for this rain.

Monday through Friday... Some wrap around around rain could be seen
on Monday, but overall dry until midweek. The deterministic global
models show a frontal passage midweek and that would be out next
chance for rain and thunderstorms. Still more of a spread in the
ensembles, so PoPs remain low at this time. High pressure behind this
front would favor a dry end to the week. Temperatures are rather
uncertain for next week based on a wide spread in the ensembles. The
GEFS is generally running hot with the EPS running mild and the CMC
somewhere between them on average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Outside of EAU, main TS activity has moved east of MPX terminals as
the 00z TAF period starts. The center of the shortwave that kicked
off all of this activity is currently just northwest of AXN and has
some scattered convection heading toward AXN, but it is on a downward
trend. By 3z, all storms will be done in the MPX area and attention
then turns to fog potential tonight. Think fog threat will be tied to
who got rain today, so brought a mention into RNH/EAU. Some fog is
possible for MSP as well, though it's really difficult to get
radiational fog at MSP. For Saturday, the weather will be quite, but
to expect NW winds to gust into the 20s kts, with a cu field making
it about as far south as the MN River Valley.

KMSP...We will have light winds and clear skies tonight and given the
late afternoon TS, there will be some fog potential, but given this
is MSP, kept that mention out for now.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sun...MVFR/-SHRA likely aftn/evening. Chc TS. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
Mon...AM MVFR/-SHRA likely. Chc IFR. Wind N 10G20kts.
Tue...VFR. Wind W 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...MPG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
302 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
122015-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
302 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms likely with hail and wind are the primary threats.
See watch and warning statements for more information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

There is another chance of thunderstorms Sunday and Sunday
evening, severe weather is not likely, but still possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
657 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

MNZ075>077-120030-
Le Sueur MN-Rice MN-Nicollet MN-
657 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Le Sueur,
southwestern Rice and northeastern Nicollet Counties through 730 PM
CDT...

At 657 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cleveland, or 17 miles northeast of Mankato, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Le Center around 705 PM CDT.
  Montgomery around 710 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Faribault and
Warsaw.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 between mile markers 56 and 59, and between mile
markers 63 and 66.
 U.S. Highway 169 between mile markers 70 and 77.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4439 9403 4446 9400 4447 9392 4443 9329
      4420 9330
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 285DEG 40KT 4440 9384

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
706 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

MNZ078-120030-
Goodhue MN-
706 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Goodhue
County through 730 PM CDT...

At 705 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wanamingo, or 15 miles north of Mantorville, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Wanamingo around 710 PM CDT.
  Zumbrota around 715 PM CDT.
  Pine Island around 720 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in the Twin Cities.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southeastern Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4425 9293 4432 9292 4435 9255 4420 9255
      4420 9256
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 271DEG 44KT 4427 9286

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

ETA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
706 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

MNZ078-120030-
Goodhue MN-
706 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Goodhue
County through 730 PM CDT...

At 706 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Wanamingo, or 15 miles north of Mantorville, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Zumbrota around 715 PM CDT.
  Pine Island around 720 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southeastern Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4434 9295 4436 9255 4420 9256 4420 9294
TIME...MOT...LOC 0006Z 269DEG 45KT 4428 9285

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MPG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
712 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 PM     Hail             Rockford                45.09N 93.74W
08/11/2023  M3.00 inch       Wright             MN   Public

            Picture via facebook comments.

&&

TDH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
727 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     Hail             Blue Earth              43.64N 94.10W
08/11/2023  E1.25 inch       Faribault          MN   Public

            Picture via twitter.

&&

TDH

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