Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
110 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Small chance for afternoon/evening storms near I-94 corridor, and
a few could produce gusty winds and hail.

- Dangerously hot conditions build midweek with heat indices of 100
to 105 Wednesday and Thursday.

Today through Sunday...Hot weather will be the main story this
coming week, and afternoon highs will be in the mid 90s Tuesday, and
upper 90s Wednesday and Thursday with a few locations making a run
at the century mark. There will also be small chances for
thunderstorms, although the forcing will be weak so widespread
rainfall is not expected. The one exception is Wednesday night into
Thursday when a complex of thunderstorms is expected to form across
the eastern Dakotas, and could sag southeast into Minnesota and
Wisconsin.

For today, expect filtered sunshine with some haze/smoke lingering
across the region. There is a small chance for an afternoon shower
or thunderstorm. The synoptic forcing doesn't really support it, but
the HiRes models are in pretty good agreement with developing
scattered convection later today, mainly along the I-94 corridor.
There is a marginal risk for severe weather, but this a lower-end
risk with mainly gusty winds or hail possible with a few stronger
storms.

Otherwise, heat will build across the region. Winds will remain
light, which means that we'll need full sunshine to realize the high
temperatures. This could be offset by any convective debris, so
continued with the blended guidance for temperatures. One time frame
to watch is Wednesday night into Tuesday, when a subtle shortwave
trough is forecast to move across the region. The airmass below will
be conditionally unstable, meaning that convection could develop if
the forcing is strong enough to break the cap. For now it's more of
a wait-and-see.

Looking ahead, temperatures do cool off a bit toward the end of the
week, but still remain above normal with highs in the 80s and lows
in the 60s. There are also small chances for thunderstorms, but this
will depend on how the storms earlier in the week pan out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

We've had an attempt at convective initiation between STC and MSP
that looks to have developed along the smoke gradient when looking at
satellite. However, this activity has since fizzled out and current
thinking is that we will eventually see some isolated activity this
afternoon, likely near and west of the smoke boundary, but not enough
to warrant putting a precip mention in any of the TAFs. Tonight,
without fresh rain, the fog potential looks much lower than what we
saw last night. Winds much of today/tonight will be light and
variable, with wind directions bouncing between southeast and
northwest, but enough of a gradient arrives on Tuesday to give us a
more consistent south wind direction.

KMSP...VAD wind profile and RAP soundings for our winds trending more
toward WSW direction this afternoon, though we'll likely see
directions bouncing between the south and north of the 210 wind
threshold for the 30s/12s. Isolated activity can't be ruled out
today, but given the fact that stuff that developed to the northwest
around 17z has already fallen apart, that shower threat looks too
low to bring in any sort of precip mention into the TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Chc -SHRA/TS in mrng. Wind SE 5 kts.
THU...VFR. Chc evening TSRA. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Chc TSRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...MPG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
322 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
250830-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
322 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening,
especially across east central Minnesota and west central
Wisconsin. Large hail and gusty winds may accompany the strongest
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hot and humid conditions are expected throughout this week with
the warmest days coming Wednesday and Thursday. Excessive heat is
likely with temperatures in the upper 90s and maximum heat
indices in the low to mid 100s. Little relief is expected at
night with lows near 70 midweek.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation is unlikely, but may be needed this
afternoon and evening.

jrb

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
206 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

MNZ062-063-WIZ023-241930-
Washington MN-Ramsey MN-St. Croix WI-
206 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Washington,
eastern Ramsey and west central St. Croix Counties through 230 PM
CDT...

At 206 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Vadnais Heights, or 8 miles north of St. Paul, moving southeast at 30
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Maplewood around 210 PM CDT.
  Oakdale and Mahtomedi around 215 PM CDT.
  Lake Elmo around 225 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Woodbury,
Stillwater, Hudson, North Hudson and Bayport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4507 9267 4484 9287 4497 9312 4506 9316
      4513 9310 4513 9308
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 299DEG 25KT 4507 9305

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

TDH