Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Twin Cities, MN

859 
WWUS53 KMPX 242038
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
338 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

WIC093-109-242048-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-230724T2100Z/
Pierce WI-St. Croix WI-
338 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN PIERCE AND
SOUTHEASTERN ST. CROIX COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4487 9243 4495 9243 4496 9214 4477 9214
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 286DEG 21KT 4491 9230 

$$

TDH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
110 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Small chance for afternoon/evening storms near I-94 corridor, and
a few could produce gusty winds and hail.

- Dangerously hot conditions build midweek with heat indices of 100
to 105 Wednesday and Thursday.

Today through Sunday...Hot weather will be the main story this
coming week, and afternoon highs will be in the mid 90s Tuesday, and
upper 90s Wednesday and Thursday with a few locations making a run
at the century mark. There will also be small chances for
thunderstorms, although the forcing will be weak so widespread
rainfall is not expected. The one exception is Wednesday night into
Thursday when a complex of thunderstorms is expected to form across
the eastern Dakotas, and could sag southeast into Minnesota and
Wisconsin.

For today, expect filtered sunshine with some haze/smoke lingering
across the region. There is a small chance for an afternoon shower
or thunderstorm. The synoptic forcing doesn't really support it, but
the HiRes models are in pretty good agreement with developing
scattered convection later today, mainly along the I-94 corridor.
There is a marginal risk for severe weather, but this a lower-end
risk with mainly gusty winds or hail possible with a few stronger
storms.

Otherwise, heat will build across the region. Winds will remain
light, which means that we'll need full sunshine to realize the high
temperatures. This could be offset by any convective debris, so
continued with the blended guidance for temperatures. One time frame
to watch is Wednesday night into Tuesday, when a subtle shortwave
trough is forecast to move across the region. The airmass below will
be conditionally unstable, meaning that convection could develop if
the forcing is strong enough to break the cap. For now it's more of
a wait-and-see.

Looking ahead, temperatures do cool off a bit toward the end of the
week, but still remain above normal with highs in the 80s and lows
in the 60s. There are also small chances for thunderstorms, but this
will depend on how the storms earlier in the week pan out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

We've had an attempt at convective initiation between STC and MSP
that looks to have developed along the smoke gradient when looking at
satellite. However, this activity has since fizzled out and current
thinking is that we will eventually see some isolated activity this
afternoon, likely near and west of the smoke boundary, but not enough
to warrant putting a precip mention in any of the TAFs. Tonight,
without fresh rain, the fog potential looks much lower than what we
saw last night. Winds much of today/tonight will be light and
variable, with wind directions bouncing between southeast and
northwest, but enough of a gradient arrives on Tuesday to give us a
more consistent south wind direction.

KMSP...VAD wind profile and RAP soundings for our winds trending more
toward WSW direction this afternoon, though we'll likely see
directions bouncing between the south and north of the 210 wind
threshold for the 30s/12s. Isolated activity can't be ruled out
today, but given the fact that stuff that developed to the northwest
around 17z has already fallen apart, that shower threat looks too
low to bring in any sort of precip mention into the TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Chc -SHRA/TS in mrng. Wind SE 5 kts.
THU...VFR. Chc evening TSRA. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Chc TSRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...MPG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
322 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
250830-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
322 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening,
especially across east central Minnesota and west central
Wisconsin. Large hail and gusty winds may accompany the strongest
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Hot and humid conditions are expected throughout this week with
the warmest days coming Wednesday and Thursday. Excessive heat is
likely with temperatures in the upper 90s and maximum heat
indices in the low to mid 100s. Little relief is expected at
night with lows near 70 midweek.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation is unlikely, but may be needed this
afternoon and evening.

jrb

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
256 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0247 PM     Hail             1 N Hudson              44.99N 92.75W
07/24/2023  E1.25 inch       St. Croix          WI   Law Enforcement

            Phone report.

&&

pem

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
307 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     Hail             2 ENE Rosemount         44.76N 93.09W
07/24/2023  M1.00 inch       Dakota             MN   Public

            Photo relayed via Social Media.

&&

pem

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
310 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     Hail             1 ENE Hudson            44.98N 92.73W
07/24/2023  M1.75 inch       St. Croix          WI   Public

            Up to golf ball sized hail and sporadic tree
            damage in eastern Hudson.

&&

TDH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
311 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0302 PM     Hail             2 E Rosemount           44.74N 93.09W
07/24/2023  M1.50 inch       Dakota             MN   Public

            Photo relayed on Social Media.

&&

pem

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
316 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     Hail             2 S Rosemount           44.72N 93.12W
07/24/2023  M1.25 inch       Dakota             MN   Public

            Photo via Social Media.

&&

pem

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
316 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

MNZ049-242100-
Stearns MN-
316 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Stearns
County through 400 PM CDT...

At 316 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Holdingford, or 21 miles southwest of Little Falls, moving southeast
at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  St. Anthony and Holdingford around 320 PM CDT.
  Albany around 330 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Avon, Collegeville
and St. Joseph.

This includes Interstate 94 in Minnesota between mile markers 144 and
162.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4573 9465 4577 9452 4556 9421 4546 9464
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 335DEG 20KT 4571 9458

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TDH