Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
341 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered thunderstorms will continue through the early evening;
  one or two storms may be severe.

- A dangerous heatwave still appears likely by the middle of next
  week, but the possibility of thunderstorms adds additional
  complexity.

Scattered thunderstorms have formed along an outflow boundary,
roughly along I-94, left from a cluster of thunderstorms that headed
across northern MN this morning. Another area of storms is developing
along the cold front across southwest MN. Coverage is expected to
increase during the next couple hours as storms track southeast. A
few cells have exhibited near severe hail and the environment is
favorable for a couple storms to briefly become severe into the early
evening. The shortwave will slide east this evening and skies will
clear, leaving a tranquil overnight with light winds.

The focus for the rest of the forecast period is the building heat
through the middle to latter parts of next week. The overall pattern
across the CONUS won't change much during this time, but the
northeastern trough will lift out and allow the heat dome to spread
northeastward to the Upper Midwest. Temperatures will build each
day, but will peak Wednesday and Thursday with strong thermal
ridging overhead. Highs in the mid to upper 90s still appear likely.
Dew points in the 60s to low 70s will bring the hottest heat indices
of the year which could approach 105 in some spots. The caveat to all
of this, as is always the case with extreme heat around here, is the
potential for thunderstorms. With the ridge still centered well off
to the southwest over the Rockies, a number of weak waves could
traverse the northern U.S. midweek and tap into a well-mixed,
uncapped atmosphere. Diurnal storms are possible. With the mid level
jet remaining well to the north, the prospects of an MCS that could
wipe out a day of heat seems unlikely attm.

By next weekend, the ridge will flatten and allow a surface front to
sag south, bringing cooler air and increased chances for
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Cluster of TS over northwest WI continues to track southeast midday.
It should bypass RNH, but could build into EAU during the next couple
hours. Otherwise, additional scattered showers and storms should
develop during the early afternoon, peaking in coverage mid to late
afternoon across eastern MN and western WI. Light winds and clearing
skies to follow tonight.

KMSP...TS is possible any time this afternoon, but the current
satellite trends of benign CU suggest the best TEMPO window will be
mid to late afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind S 10-15 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Borghoff

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
315 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

MNZ042>045-049>053-057>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-
023>028-232015-
Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stearns-Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-
Chisago-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
315 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue through early evening. A
couple storms may be capable of producing large hail or strong
wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The possibility of a dangerous heat wave continues to increase for
next week with several days in the 90s expected. Max heat indices
by Wednesday and Thursday may reach the low to mid 100s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed through early evening.

MNZ041-047-048-054>056-232015-
Douglas-Stevens-Pope-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
315 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The possibility of a dangerous heat wave continues to increase for
next week with several days in the 90s expected. Max heat indices
by Wednesday and Thursday may reach the low to mid 100s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Borghoff

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
352 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     Hail             Becker                  45.39N 93.88W
07/22/2023  M1.25 inch       Sherburne          MN   Public

            Quarter to Half Dollar Hail via picture on
            twitter.

&&

TDH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
402 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     Hail             Monticello              45.30N 93.80W
07/22/2023  M0.75 inch       Wright             MN   Storm Chaser

&&

tdk

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
411 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

MNZ078-WIZ024-222145-
Goodhue MN-Pierce WI-
411 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Goodhue
and central Pierce Counties through 445 PM CDT...

At 411 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles west of Ellsworth, or 7 miles south of River Falls, moving
southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Ellsworth around 425 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include Red Wing and Bay
City.

This includes U.S. Highway 61 between mile markers 86 and 96.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4476 9277 4486 9257 4462 9225 4448 9257
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 321DEG 25KT 4475 9261

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TDH

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