Alert archive / Minnesota / Special Weather Statements in 2023

Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

July 22, 2023Sherburne County, Minnesota

NWS Twin Cities, MN issued this special weather statement at Jul 22, 2023, 3:41 PM CDT for Sherburne County, Minnesota. It was in force for 34 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 22, 2023, 3:41 PM CDT (20:41 UTC)
Expired
Jul 22, 2023, 4:15 PM CDT
In force
34 min
Issued by
NWS Twin Cities, MN
Hail
0.75 in
Wind
40

County Sherburne County, MN

The radar

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 47 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 47 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2023-07-22Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 159 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2023-07-22The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 82 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
159 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-78 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1285 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
82 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
115 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Twin Cities, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 22, 3:41 PM CDT, 0 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 22, 3:41 PM CDT, 0 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
341 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 341 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- Scattered thunderstorms will continue through the early evening;
  one or two storms may be severe.

- A dangerous heatwave still appears likely by the middle of next
  week, but the possibility of thunderstorms adds additional
  complexity.

Scattered thunderstorms have formed along an outflow boundary,
roughly along I-94, left from a cluster of thunderstorms that headed
across northern MN this morning. Another area of storms is developing
along the cold front across southwest MN. Coverage is expected to
increase during the next couple hours as storms track southeast. A
few cells have exhibited near severe hail and the environment is
favorable for a couple storms to briefly become severe into the early
evening. The shortwave will slide east this evening and skies will
clear, leaving a tranquil overnight with light winds.

The focus for the rest of the forecast period is the building heat
through the middle to latter parts of next week. The overall pattern
across the CONUS won't change much during this time, but the
northeastern trough will lift out and allow the heat dome to spread
northeastward to the Upper Midwest. Temperatures will build each
day, but will peak Wednesday and Thursday with strong thermal
ridging overhead. Highs in the mid to upper 90s still appear likely.
Dew points in the 60s to low 70s will bring the hottest heat indices
of the year which could approach 105 in some spots. The caveat to all
of this, as is always the case with extreme heat around here, is the
potential for thunderstorms. With the ridge still centered well off
to the southwest over the Rockies, a number of weak waves could
traverse the northern U.S. midweek and tap into a well-mixed,
uncapped atmosphere. Diurnal storms are possible. With the mid level
jet remaining well to the north, the prospects of an MCS that could
wipe out a day of heat seems unlikely attm.

By next weekend, the ridge will flatten and allow a surface front to
sag south, bringing cooler air and increased chances for
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Cluster of TS over northwest WI continues to track southeast midday.
It should bypass RNH, but could build into EAU during the next couple
hours. Otherwise, additional scattered showers and storms should
develop during the early afternoon, peaking in coverage mid to late
afternoon across eastern MN and western WI. Light winds and clearing
skies to follow tonight.

KMSP...TS is possible any time this afternoon, but the current
satellite trends of benign CU suggest the best TEMPO window will be
mid to late afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind S 10-15 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SE 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...Borghoff
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 22, 3:15 PM CDT, 26 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
315 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

MNZ042>045-049>053-057>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-
023>028-232015-
Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stearns-Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-
Chisago-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
315 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue through early evening. A
couple storms may be capable of producing large hail or strong
wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The possibility of a dangerous heat wave continues to increase for
next week with several days in the 90s expected. Max heat indices
by Wednesday and Thursday may reach the low to mid 100s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed through early evening.

MNZ041-047-048-054>056-232015-
Douglas-Stevens-Pope-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
315 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The possibility of a dangerous heat wave continues to increase for
next week with several days in the 90s expected. Max heat indices
by Wednesday and Thursday may reach the low to mid 100s.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Borghoff

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 22, 3:12 PM CDT, 29 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
312 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     Hail             Spring Valley           44.85N 92.24W
07/22/2023  M0.50 inch       Pierce             WI   Trained Spotter

            Large quantity of up to half inch hail.

&&

TDH
Local storm report, Jul 22, 3:15 PM CDT, 26 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
315 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0313 PM     Hail             4 SSW Milroy            44.36N 95.59W
07/22/2023  M1.25 inch       Redwood            MN   Public

            Picture via Twitter between Milroy and
            Tracy.

&&

TDH
Local storm report, Jul 22, 3:23 PM CDT, 18 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
323 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0317 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 S Milroy              44.36N 95.56W
07/22/2023  M67 MPH          Redwood            MN   Trained Spotter

0317 PM     Hail             4 S Milroy              44.35N 95.56W
07/22/2023  M1.50 inch       Redwood            MN   Trained Spotter

&&
Special weather statement, Jul 22, 3:31 PM CDT, 10 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
331 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

WIZ024-026-222100-
Pierce WI-Pepin WI-
331 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Pepin
and southeastern Pierce Counties through 400 PM CDT...

At 331 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ellsworth, or 11 miles southeast of River Falls, moving southeast at
40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Plum City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4469 9255 4478 9249 4465 9206 4450 9221
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 301DEG 34KT 4472 9247

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TDH
Special weather statement, Jul 22, 3:37 PM CDT, 4 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
337 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

MNZ063-WIZ023-024-222100-
Washington MN-Pierce WI-St. Croix WI-
337 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Washington,
northwestern Pierce and southwestern St. Croix Counties through 400
PM CDT...

At 337 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lake Elmo, or 10 miles northeast of St. Paul, moving southeast at 35
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Woodbury and Stillwater around 340 PM CDT.
  Bayport and Afton around 345 PM CDT.
  Hudson and North Hudson around 350 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include River Falls and
Roberts.

This includes Interstate 94 in Wisconsin between mile markers 1 and
10.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4478 9268 4499 9299 4507 9299 4509 9298
      4500 9251
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 298DEG 30KT 4502 9292

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TDH
Special weather statement, Jul 22, 3:41 PM CDT, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
341 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

MNZ051-059-060-222115-
Hennepin MN-Sherburne MN-Wright MN-
341 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Hennepin, northeastern Wright and southeastern Sherburne Counties
through 415 PM CDT...

At 341 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Monticello, or 11 miles north of Buffalo, moving southeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Monticello and Big Lake around 345 PM CDT.
  Buffalo around 350 PM CDT.
  Albertville around 400 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this storm include St. Michael,
Otsego, Rogers, Maple Grove and Corcoran.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 94 in Minnesota between mile markers 185 and 205.
 U.S. Highway 10 in Minnesota between mile markers 197 and 217.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4542 9371 4526 9351 4525 9352 4522 9346
      4516 9338 4508 9381 4536 9395
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 319DEG 34KT 4535 9384

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

TDH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Twin Cities, MN issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 22, 2:11 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMPXSherburne34 min
Jul 22, 2:46 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMPXRamsey29 min
Jul 22, 2:56 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMPXRedwood34 min
Jul 22, 3:03 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXRedwood42 min
Jul 22, 3:37 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMPXWashington23 min
Jul 22, 4:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXSherburne, Wright35 min
Jul 22, 4:35 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXGoodhue25 min
Jul 22, 4:45 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMPXSherburne30 min
Jul 22, 5:00 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMPXWabasha15 min
Jul 22, 5:14 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMPXDakota31 min
Jul 22, 5:15 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMPXFreeborn30 min
Jul 22, 5:47 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMPXGoodhue28 min
Jul 22, 6:40 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMPXSteele35 min
Jul 22, 2:02 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMPXDunn43 min
Jul 22, 2:47 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMPXDunn, Pierce28 min
Jul 22, 3:02 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXDunn, Pierce, Saint Croix28 min
Jul 22, 3:31 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMPXPierce29 min
Jul 22, 3:39 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMPXPepin, Pierce21 min
Jul 22, 4:11 PM CDTSpecial Weather StatementMPXPierce34 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Minnesota, 2023Every special weather statement in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.