Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
556 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

.UPDATE...
Issued at 549 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

Updated for the 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

KEY MESSAGES:

- An active pattern with daily chances for showers and storms will
  continue through Sunday morning. Some heavy rainfall is possible.

- Dry weather with more seasonable temperatures in the upper 60s and
  70s return Sunday through early next week.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...Early morning satellite imagery showed an MCS
across the region. This complex of thunderstorms was slow-moving,
with many updrafts producing locally heavy rainfall across
south/southwest Minnesota. Dualpol precip rates were in excess of 4
inches/hr with some of the strongest cores. This area of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to fall apart into the morning as the low
level jet wanes. There will likely be a few outflow boundaries in
place which will be the focus for more showers and thunderstorms
later in the day, but these won't be very widespread as the overall
synoptic forcing is rather weak and diffuse. That is why the
precipitation chances decrease during the afternoon. Friday will be
more of the same, as the main upper level low slowly makes its way
toward Minnesota/Wisconsin. This should lead to a bit more coverage
in showers and thunderstorms. Pockets of heavy rain remain the
primary concern. The directional shear is favorable for severe
weather, but mid level lapse rates are moist, and the overall speed
shear is weak. The better chances for severe storms are to the south
across Iowa, closer to the surface low.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...The upper level low will slowly spin
its way northeast toward the region, but its progress will get halted
on Saturday as the upstream ridge breaks across Canada. The
associated surface low will stall out as well, and that means
southern/western Minnesota have the highest chances for
precipitation, while other areas still could see scattered showers
and thunderstorms. On Saturday the CAPE/Shear profiles most favorable
for severe weather will still be south of the region across Iowa, but
if the surface low ends up more north than areas along I-90 could see
the potential for some rotating storms.

Looking ahead, the upstream ridge will completely shear apart the
remnants of the shortwave, and large scale subsidence will lead to
high pressure and and dry conditions settling in late on Sunday and
lasting for most of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 549 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are slowly making their way
across the southern half of Minnesota. Expecting -SHRA/TSRA to
continue at KRWF/KMKT/KMSP through 16z or so. VFR conditions return
to all terminals by this afternoon with light southeast winds.
Confidence on coverage of afternoon showers and storms is low, so
largely left out any mention of them for now. Overnight, some fog is
expected along with increasing chances of showers and MVFR conditions returning
by the end of the TAF period.

KMSP...The majority of the TSRA activity has remained well to the
south, so kept thunder out. Otherwise, no additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...MVFR likely. Chc -SHRA/-TSRA. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
Sat...MVFR/-SHRA likely, chc IFR/-TSRA. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
Sun...MVFR. Chc IFR/-SHRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...Dye

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