Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1155 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

...New AVIATION, MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

VFR to MVFR ceilings are spread across the region at issuance
time. Showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe,
are beginning to enter our southeast MS and southwest AL counties
in association with a cold front. These storms will continue to
push eastward throughout the afternoon, bringing brief reductions
in visibility and ceilings to MVFR or IFR. VFR conditions should
return by the late afternoon and last through the evening.
Overnight tonight, MVFR ceilings are expected to prevail through
the mid morning hours. Gusty southwesterly winds today, with gusts
up to 30 to 35 knots, will turn northwesterly this evening in the
wake of the cold front. Gusts to around 25 knots are expected to
continue overnight and into Friday morning. /96

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

A deep trough digging into the lower MS Valley has resulted in
the development of strong to severe convection this morning. This
activity is now spreading into our western zones and will continue
to progress east through the afternoon. Interestingly, we have
seen some discrete cell development ahead of the main line this
morning. Any cells that can develop ahead of the main line, will
carry the best tornado potential, especially over far inland SW AL
where surface winds have remained more southerly than
southwesterly this morning. As we go into the afternoon, surface
winds are forecast to veer to more of a southwest direction, which
in turn, will limit directional shear in the lower levels.
However, effective bulk shear will remain 50-60 kt across the
region, along with MLCAPES up to 1500 J/kg. This suggests a
primary damaging wind and large hail event, particularly given mid
level lapse rates near 7-7.5 C/km. Given substantial speed shear
present in the lower levels, we will still have to keep a close
eye on any circulations that may develop within the evolving QLCS
along and just ahead of the synoptic cold front.

The threat will end from west to east as we go through the
afternoon. Storms should clear SE MS by 2pm at the latest with
storms exiting far eastern portions of the area by 6pm. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      41  53  31  55  34  65  50  72 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0  20
Pensacola   45  54  34  55  37  63  52  71 /  20   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Destin      48  55  37  56  40  63  52  71 /  40   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Evergreen   41  50  28  52  27  61  39  68 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0  10
Waynesboro  38  49  28  52  29  61  44  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0   0  20
Camden      39  48  28  49  27  59  40  65 /  10   0   0   0   0   0   0  20
Crestview   44  51  30  53  30  61  42  69 /  30   0   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

     High Surf Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ630-633>636.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for GMZ631-632-650-
     655-670-675.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
944 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

MSZ067-121630-
Wayne MS-
944 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Wayne
County through 1030 AM CST...

At 944 AM CST, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Sandersville, or 10 miles northeast of
Laurel, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northern Wayne
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3182 8894 3185 8865 3189 8847 3179 8847
      3173 8894
TIME...MOT...LOC 1544Z 251DEG 38KT 3178 8900

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1140 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

ALZ261-262-MSZ076-079-121830-
Baldwin Inland AL-Mobile Inland AL-Greene MS-George MS-
1140 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Mobile,
northwestern Baldwin, northeastern George and southeastern Greene
Counties through 1230 PM CST...

At 1140 AM CST, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Lucedale, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Citronelle, Lucedale, Chunchula, Gulfcrest, Axis, Mount Vernon and
Movico.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 500 PM CST for southwestern
Alabama...and southeastern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3114 8817 3114 8802 3117 8799 3117 8797
      3115 8797 3115 8794 3114 8794 3116 8793
      3093 8787 3093 8791 3092 8791 3093 8792
      3093 8799 3088 8867 3101 8871
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 257DEG 41KT 3094 8861

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MM