Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
420 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 415 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Severe storms continue across portions of south central AL late this
afternoon, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is currently in effect for
Escambia and Covington counties of south central AL, Mobile and
Baldwin counties of coastal AL and all of the western FL panhandle
through 9 PM this evening. These storms have produced widespread
wind damage and hail up to at least tennis ball size. CAMS,
specifically the HRRR, seems  to have a decent handle on this (for a
change) and it appears that the current cluster of severe storms
should continue sagging slowly southward and into the FL panhandle
counties late this afternoon and early evening. The airmass
downstream of this activity remains moderately to strongly unstable,
with MLCAPE generally ranging 2500-3000 J/KG. Strong deep layer
shear will allow for continued updraft organization, including
supercells, so damaging winds and large hail will continue to be
possible with the storms. By around 8-9 PM we think that this
cluster of storms will be moving offshore and the severe threat will
be ending, hopefully for the remainder of the night.

Another shortwave will be approaching the area from the west by
early Friday morning, and another cluster of strong to severe storms
will likely move east across our forecast area on Friday morning.
The potential for severe weather will also be there with this
cluster of storms as well, with damaging wind and large hail again
being the primary threat. There is some indication that Friday
afternoon may not be as busy weather-wise as the past several days,
but CAMs have had trouble with the timing of these systems and we
will have to monitor to see if that changes.

Lows tonight in the upper 60s well inland and the low to mid 70s
coast. Highs on Friday mainly in the upper 80s. /12

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 415 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

The active weather pattern we have been dealing with over the past
several days appears to continue right on through the weekend.
Several mid-level impulses, embedded in a persistent and
unseasonably strong mid and upper level northwesterly flow, will
continue to bring episodes of enhanced ascent across the area.
Energy aloft will overspread/interact with a moderately to
strongly unstable airmass in place. Clusters of showers and
thunderstorms appear likely to form along the Interstate 10
corridor on Saturday near a remnant quasi-stationary front with
other clusters of storms forming on old convective outflows and
over the interior in response to the passage of high level energy
maximums. Storm motion from the northwest to the southeast remains
favored. The severe weather risk remains possible Saturday given
the expectation that more than sufficient instability will be in
place as well as 0-6 km bulk shear magnitudes 35 to 45 kts.

The latest 15.12Z physical solutions suggest a more significant
upper level impulse will be riding east southeast from the Lower
MS River Valley to across central/southern sections of MS/AL
through the day Sunday. This may bring yet another increased
severe weather threat.

In addition to weekend storms, other concerns will be first =>
heat with highest heat indices (102 to 107) appearing in the
forecast by Sunday and more focused along and south of a line from
Crestview FL to New Augusta MS. Secondly, a HIGH risk of
dangerous to potentially deadly rip currents exists along area
beaches through the weekend. /10

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 415 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

It doesn't appear there will be much reprieve next week too as the
southern stream remains in a persistently active state. An upper
level ridge centered over Mexico noses northward into the
southern Plains while there is some indication of an upper level
low pressure system to form over the TN Valley/southern Appalachians.
The position of these two systems maintains a flow supporting an
extended period where spokes of mid-level energy will drop southward
bringing the potential of multiple rounds of storms over the
central Gulf coast. Appears there will be potential for severe
storms and heavy rain with each round.

Additionally, a HIGH risk for rip currents persists at local
beaches through at least Monday. Hot and humid conditions could
also lead to heat stress related concerns as we head into early
next week. /10

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 415 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Moderate to occasionally strong southwesterly winds prevail into
tonight and then weaken slightly Friday and into the weekend. A
Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 10 pm tonight. A brief
period of light to moderate offshore flow may develop on Friday as
a cold front may drift just off the coast, but this should be
short lived as a lighter onshore flow is generally expected as we
move into the weekend. /12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  91  71  91  73  90  76  91 /  60  70  60  60  20  70  30  70
Pensacola   75  89  74  88  75  88  78  89 /  70  70  70  70  30  70  50  70
Destin      78  89  76  88  77  88  78  88 /  70  70  70  70  30  60  40  70
Evergreen   69  90  69  90  69  89  70  88 /  50  70  70  60  20  70  50  80
Waynesboro  69  88  68  90  70  89  71  89 /  30  70  60  50  20  70  50  70
Camden      67  87  66  88  67  86  68  86 /  30  70  60  40  20  70  60  80
Crestview   70  91  69  91  70  91  71  89 /  60  70  70  70  20  70  40  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ630>632-
     650-670.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1041 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

ALZ057-058-060-151630-
Butler AL-Covington AL-Crenshaw AL-
1041 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Butler,
southern Crenshaw and northern Covington Counties through 1130 AM
CDT...

At 1040 AM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near McKenzie, or 16 miles northeast of
Evergreen, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Brantley, McKenzie and Dozier.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT for south central
Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3142 8620 3141 8620 3150 8670 3152 8670
      3152 8676 3167 8672 3166 8624 3144 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 1540Z 283DEG 30KT 3158 8674

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1134 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

ALZ053>055-151715-
Clarke AL-Wilcox AL-Monroe AL-
1134 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of north central Monroe,
northeastern Clarke and southwestern Wilcox Counties through 1215 PM
CDT...

At 1133 AM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 5 miles east of
Magnolia to 4 miles south of Dixons Mill. Movement was southeast at
35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Thomasville and Vredenburgh.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 300 PM CDT for south central
and southwestern Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3185 8717 3175 8752 3199 8793 3199 8767
      3200 8767
TIME...MOT...LOC 1633Z 292DEG 31KT 3215 8757 3200 8779

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
153 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0132 PM     Hail             Lyeffion                31.54N 86.98W
06/15/2023  E1.00 inch       Conecuh            AL   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
251 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     Hail             2 WSW Vocation          31.25N 87.46W
06/15/2023  E2.50 inch       Escambia           AL   Public

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
314 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     Hail             3 NNE Holman Prison     31.18N 87.44W
06/15/2023  E1.75 inch       Escambia           AL   CO-OP Observer

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
412 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0232 PM     Hail             1 NW Carolina           31.24N 86.53W
06/15/2023  E1.50 inch       Covington          AL   Public

            Report from mPING: Ping Pong Ball (1.50
            in.).

&&