Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
655 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Multiple rounds of strong to severe storms are expected to impact
the region through the period. Current radar has a line of strong
to severe storms generally along the Highway 84 corridor.
Expecting this line of storms to continue tracking towards the
east-southeast through tonight. Confidence in these storms
impacting TAF sites is low to moderate during over the next few
hours, but have accounted for this potential with VCTS beginning
at 01Z-02Z. Trends will be monitored and timing will be adjusted
if needed. Otherwise, there is a high likelihood for storms that
do develop to become severe (especially for inland areas of
southeast MS and southern AL) with potential for wind gusts in
excess of 60-80 kt, large hail, frequent lightning, and torrential
downpours through a majority of the TAF period. Again, confidence
in timing of storms impacting TAF sites remains low for the next
few hours, however, expecting confidence to increase to more
moderate during the overnight hours tonight and into the early
morning hours on Thursday. For now accounting for this potential
with PROB30s given the expected time is 9 hours out or more. Have
included VCTS around 07Z for TAF sites once again to account for
the next round potentially beginning at this time. Expect winds to
remain generally westerly between 7-15kts with higher gusts up to
25-30 kts possible outside of severe convection with winds within
any convective development likely being more erratic. JEH/88

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 443 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023/

..New UPDATE...

UPDATE...

Issued at 439 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Severe thunderstorm watch #296 has been issued until 10 pm this
evening for all land zones and for bays/sounds. Zone and marine
forecast products updated to include watch headline. /10

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023/

.New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tonight)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

The first round of severe weather that we were expecting has been
just outside of our forecast area (to the north and east of our
area) where damaging winds, tornadoes and very large hail have all
occurred. Although this first round has largely missed our area, we
are still looking at the high potential for an additional round to
move in from the northwest and affect at least a portion of the area
this evening into the early overnight hours.

For this evening through tonight, a stronger shortwave is
expected to move into our area from the northwest tonight, bringing
a higher severe threat (at least over the northern half of our
forecast area) this evening and possibly lingering into the early,
predawn hours of Thursday morning. A developing MCS over northern
LA, southern AR into western MS is progged by high-res model
guidance to drop east southeast across MS and AL this evening. A PDS
Severe Thunderstorm watch has been issued just to the west of our
CWA, and will likely be extended east across at least a portion of
our area (mainly portions of southeast MS and southern AL) later
this evening.

Dewpoints will remain generally in the 70s through the evening
hours, and even though we will be losing peak instability, other
severe parameters will remain robust and severe weather should
continue well into the evening. MLCAPE values initially continue to
range from 3500-4000j/kg but gradually lowering (from north to south
across the area) by late evening (only being confined along the
immediate coast by midnight into the early predawn morning hours.
Mid level lapse rates also initially remain steep during the early to
mid evening, around 7.5c/km. As such, damaging thunderstorm wind
gusts, possibly in the 80 to 100 mph range, could occur with some of
the storms, along with hail up to at least 3.0 inches in diameter. A
few tornadoes could be possible as well. So, in summary, a
significant severe threat will exist across much of our area this
evening into the early predawn hours Thursday.

A brief lull in the convection late tonight going into early
Thursday morning, but more severe storms are expected on Thursday as
well and will be discussed below in the short term period. With the
likely potential of clusters of storms moving across many of the
same areas over the next 24 hours or so, a Flood Watch is also in
effect for portions of southeast MS, south AL and the western FL
panhandle, with potential for 2 to 4 inches of rain with pockets of
rainfall possibly in excess of 6 inches through Thursday evening.

Lows tonight in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Highs Thursday in the
mid and upper 80s. /12

SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Saturday night)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

A persistent and atypically active southern stream for June opens up
the short term period with the central Gulf coast remaining
positioned within the most productive zone for convection at the
base of a long-wave upper trof over the eastern US and the northeast
edge of an upper ridge over the southern Gulf. Within, the flow
aloft, a series of mid-level impulses will track east-southeast
bringing a contribution of enhanced forcing/ascent from aloft which
operates on a moist and unstable environment. Considering this, the
next in the series of impulses is expected to be advancing east
southeast from the Lower MS River Valley Thursday morning and
tracking across central MS/central AL during the course of the day
Thursday. This occurs to the south of a quasi-stationary surface
front draped east to west across central AL/central MS. To the south
of the boundary, not surprising is the fact forecasters anticipate
seeing a potent environment as far as instability is concerned with
most unstable convective energy (MUCape) ranging 2500-3500 J/KG.
PWATs look to be ~1.80" on average which would stand between 1 and 2
standard deviations above the climatological means for June 15th. 0-
6KM Bulk Shear magnitudes look to remain above 40 knots. Considering
this and degree of moisture, instability and lift, potential for
severe weather lingers into Thursday. The challenge is timing. With
uncertainties in the higher resolution convective allowing models
(CAMs) will lean to the camp of the 14.12Z high resolution
ensembles on this which shows an increase in storm coverage over
the interior most noticably Thursday afternoon and a subsequent
increase in severe weather threat shifting southward with a
complex of storms dropping south southeast toward the coast by mid
to late afternoon. Storms progged to move offshore during the
evening bringing potential high impacts to marine safety.

At this time, the potential exists for all modes of severe weather.
Concern exists for damaging winds in excess of 60 mph with bowing
segments along with some tornado potential given enough low level
curvature in hodographs (0-1 km SRH between 150-250 m2/s2) will
exist across the southern half of our CWA Thursday afternoon.
Instability and shear profiles will be more than supportive of large
hail with the most intense convective updrafts Thursday.

Another concern remains the potential of excessive rain as storms
will be very efficient in high rainfall rates which could lead to
rapid runoff and potential flooding problems. Will see how the
antecedent soil moisture conditions charge from near term storms,
but appears the best threat remains over the northeast half of the
local area where a flash flood watch will remain in effect through
Thursday night.

Closing out the work week and entering the first half of the
weekend, the unsettled weather pattern appears to hold with a series
of upper level impulses bringing convective systems southeast across
the area. Some of the storms could be severe.
Outside of the storm threat, we could be dealing with heat problems.
Gridded values indicate values exceed to or exceeding 108 (heat
advisory criteria) over portions of interior southeast MS Friday and
Saturday.

The risk of dangerous to potentially deadly rip currents is HIGH
through Saturday night. /10

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

The active pattern persists with several waves of storms expected
through next week.

An upper level ridge over the central CONUS gets nudged further east
into the Midwest as another potent shortwave dives into the Plains
with a trough encompasses the East Coast. The ridge breaks down as
it moves east and the flow flattens out locally late in the weekend.
The shortwave quickly pivots across the Midwest and drops into the
Southeast early next week as ridging builds into the central CONUS
once again. Multiple rounds of storms are expected to impact the
region, but timing will remain uncertain until we get closer in
time. That said, more MCSs will slide into the region from the
northwest throughout the period (through at least early next week)
and will bring the threat for severe storms and the potential for
flash flooding with each round.

Beach Note: HIGH risk for rip currents persists at local beaches
through Sunday. The RCMOS (Rip Current MOS) probabilities indicate
that the HIGH risk will likely extend into at least next
Tuesday. 07/mb

MARINE...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Some impacts to small craft over the next few days as a moderate
southwesterly wind will prevail over the marine area through
Thursday. Small craft should exercise caution as winds in the 15
to 20 knot range will are expected. A brief period of light to
moderate offshore flow may develop on Friday as a cold front may
drift just off the coast, but this should be short lived as a
lighter onshore flow is generally expected for later in the week
and into the weekend. Strong gusty winds in thunderstorms could
continue to create hazards for small craft through most of the
forecast period, however. /12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  90  72  92  73  91  75  92 /  30  70  40  60  40  60  20  40
Pensacola   76  89  75  89  75  88  78  89 /  50  60  60  70  40  70  30  50
Destin      78  89  76  89  76  88  79  89 /  50  60  60  70  40  60  40  50
Evergreen   69  89  68  90  69  90  71  91 /  80  80  50  70  50  60  30  60
Waynesboro  68  86  68  89  69  91  72  93 /  70  80  50  60  40  50  30  50
Camden      66  84  66  86  67  90  69  90 /  90  90  50  60  50  50  30  60
Crestview   71  89  70  92  70  91  72  92 /  50  80  60  70  40  70  30  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for ALZ051>060-262.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for FLZ201-203-205.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for MSZ067.

GM...None.
&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
855 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NE Saville            31.90N 86.31W
06/14/2023                   Crenshaw           AL   Dept of Highways

            ALGO reports storm debris on US331 blocking
            both directions near Sardis Rd. Time using
            radar.

&&

JEH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
859 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Rutledge                31.73N 86.31W
06/14/2023                   Crenshaw           AL   Dept of Highways

            ALGO reports storm debris blocking roads in
            both directions @ 3rd ave. Time using radar.

&&

JEH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
909 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 SSE Patsburg          31.73N 86.19W
06/14/2023                   Crenshaw           AL   Dept of Highways

            ALGO reports storm debris on AL 10 @ N
            Goshen Rd blocking traffic in all
            directions.

&&

JEH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
913 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNW Flomaton          31.01N 87.27W
06/14/2023                   Escambia           AL   Trained Spotter

            Spotter reports winds estimated between
            60-65mph. Time using radar.

&&

JEH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
927 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NW Bay Minette        30.90N 87.79W
06/14/2023                   Baldwin            AL   Law Enforcement

            Law enforcement reports tree blocking rd at
            intersection of Jaycee and McMeans. Time
            using radar.

&&

JEH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
928 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 NNW Bay Minette       30.90N 87.78W
06/14/2023                   Baldwin            AL   Law Enforcement

            Law enforcement reports tree down at
            intersection of 14th and Hand ave. Time
            using radar.

&&

JEH