Special Weather Statement, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1022 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

.UPDATE...
(Issued 1022 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023)

Light rain showers continue to lift northeastward this morning.
These showers will be gradually dissipating and decreasing in
coverage as we head into the late morning into early afternoon
hours. Isolated showers activity continues to be possible through
the afternoon and into the overnight hours due to the isotropic
ascent increasing.

Patterson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 240 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023)

Today through Tuesday:

Light rain showers are lifting northeastward through the area this
morning, ahead of a weak shortwave. Showers will likely peak in
coverage and intensity mid to late morning over central and east
central Wisconsin, with most activity moving east of the area by
late afternoon.

There will be a fairly wide gradient in temperatures across the
region today, thanks to expected partial clearing over south
central Wisconsin, and the continued shower chances and
associated cloud cover over central/east central Wisconsin. Highs
across the south and southwest look to reach the low to mid 60s,
with mid to upper 50s across the east/northeastern portions of the
forecast area.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are then expected to develop
tonight, as isentropic ascent increases across a baroclinic zone.
The greatest lift is expected to be across central Wisconsin
tonight into Tuesday morning. The axis of greatest
shower/thunderstorm coverage may lift northward a bit on Tuesday,
with the bulk of southern Wisconsin staying warm and windy, but
mostly dry. Highs on Tuesday are expected to be in the mid 70s in
many locations, warmest across the south. Some sun is expected
across this area early in the day Tuesday, before clouds fill back
in by afternoon. If the sun sticks around a little longer than
expected, a few 80s are not out of the question for far southern
Wisconsin.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 240 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023)

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to
traverse the region from Tuesday night through Friday or Saturday.
The highest rain potential right now is expected to occur Tuesday
night and again Thursday and Thursday, with a relative lull on
Wednesday. Shower/thunderstorm coverage and timing will ultimately
depend on the exact placement of the frontal zone, as well as the
timing of individual shortwaves lifting through the region. Most
likely QPF during this stretch is 1-2 inches, with amounts
increasing with northward extent. Meaningful flood impacts look
unlikely at this time.

Mild temperatures will persist through at least Thursday, when
model guidance then diverges considerably with when the frontal
zone gets kicked out, due to uncertainty about how quickly a
strong western trough will progress eastward. This will also have
a significant impact on temperatures heading into the weekend, as
much colder air is likely to filter into the region once the
front moves east.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1022 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023)

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light rain
showers moving northeast today are gradually dissipating and
decreasing in coverage. This trend with the showers are expected
to continue into the afternoon hours leading to more isolated
light rain. The best chances for rain will across central
Wisconsin, including SBM. Gusty south to southeast winds are
expected through the period with gust of 20 to 25 knots. There
will be a chance for some LLWS tonight.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 240 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023)

Southerly winds will increase across the lake today, as high
pressure moves into the Mid Atlantic, and a trough of low
pressure develops across the central and northern Plains. Gusty
winds will continue for much of the week as those features remain
largely stationary. For the open waters, widespread gales are not
expected, but occasional gusts around 30 knots are likely at
times. For the nearshore, A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for
today and tonight for elevated winds and waves, with the Advisory
extending through Tuesday for locations north of Port Washington,
where waves will remain elevated.

Boxell

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 AM Tuesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643 until 7 PM Tuesday.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
255 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-240800-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
255 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight, with
the best chances across central Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorm chances will continue into Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ643>646-240800-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
255 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for elevated winds and waves.

There is a chance for thunderstorms this evening and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The Small Craft Advisory will continue through Tuesday afternoon
for locations north of Port Washington. Additional Advisories may
be needed at times later this week.

There will be several chances for thunderstorms through Friday.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-240800-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
255 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There will be chances for thunderstorms at times today and
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Thunderstorm chances will continue into Friday.

www.weather.gov/mkx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
221 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

WIZ062-063-232000-
Iowa WI-Dane WI-
221 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT IOWA AND SOUTHWESTERN DANE
COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM CDT...

At 221 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mineral Point, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Horeb, Dodgeville, Mineral Point, Barneveld, Blue Mounds,
Arena, Ridgeway, Linden, Cobb, Rewey, Hollandale, Governor Dodge St
Park, Edmund, Blue Mound St Park, Mount Vernon, Blackhawk Lake Rec
Area, London, and Jonesdale.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 18 between mile markers 49 and 69.
 U.S. Highway 151 between mile markers 34 and 47.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4320 8995 4319 8992 4320 8988 4287 8957
      4286 8984 4285 8984 4281 9038 4289 9043
      4297 9043
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 244DEG 49KT 4289 9030

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KUROSKI