Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1022 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

.UPDATE...
(Issued 1022 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023)

Light rain showers continue to lift northeastward this morning.
These showers will be gradually dissipating and decreasing in
coverage as we head into the late morning into early afternoon
hours. Isolated showers activity continues to be possible through
the afternoon and into the overnight hours due to the isotropic
ascent increasing.

Patterson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 240 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023)

Today through Tuesday:

Light rain showers are lifting northeastward through the area this
morning, ahead of a weak shortwave. Showers will likely peak in
coverage and intensity mid to late morning over central and east
central Wisconsin, with most activity moving east of the area by
late afternoon.

There will be a fairly wide gradient in temperatures across the
region today, thanks to expected partial clearing over south
central Wisconsin, and the continued shower chances and
associated cloud cover over central/east central Wisconsin. Highs
across the south and southwest look to reach the low to mid 60s,
with mid to upper 50s across the east/northeastern portions of the
forecast area.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are then expected to develop
tonight, as isentropic ascent increases across a baroclinic zone.
The greatest lift is expected to be across central Wisconsin
tonight into Tuesday morning. The axis of greatest
shower/thunderstorm coverage may lift northward a bit on Tuesday,
with the bulk of southern Wisconsin staying warm and windy, but
mostly dry. Highs on Tuesday are expected to be in the mid 70s in
many locations, warmest across the south. Some sun is expected
across this area early in the day Tuesday, before clouds fill back
in by afternoon. If the sun sticks around a little longer than
expected, a few 80s are not out of the question for far southern
Wisconsin.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 240 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023)

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to
traverse the region from Tuesday night through Friday or Saturday.
The highest rain potential right now is expected to occur Tuesday
night and again Thursday and Thursday, with a relative lull on
Wednesday. Shower/thunderstorm coverage and timing will ultimately
depend on the exact placement of the frontal zone, as well as the
timing of individual shortwaves lifting through the region. Most
likely QPF during this stretch is 1-2 inches, with amounts
increasing with northward extent. Meaningful flood impacts look
unlikely at this time.

Mild temperatures will persist through at least Thursday, when
model guidance then diverges considerably with when the frontal
zone gets kicked out, due to uncertainty about how quickly a
strong western trough will progress eastward. This will also have
a significant impact on temperatures heading into the weekend, as
much colder air is likely to filter into the region once the
front moves east.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1022 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023)

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the period. Light rain
showers moving northeast today are gradually dissipating and
decreasing in coverage. This trend with the showers are expected
to continue into the afternoon hours leading to more isolated
light rain. The best chances for rain will across central
Wisconsin, including SBM. Gusty south to southeast winds are
expected through the period with gust of 20 to 25 knots. There
will be a chance for some LLWS tonight.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 240 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023)

Southerly winds will increase across the lake today, as high
pressure moves into the Mid Atlantic, and a trough of low
pressure develops across the central and northern Plains. Gusty
winds will continue for much of the week as those features remain
largely stationary. For the open waters, widespread gales are not
expected, but occasional gusts around 30 knots are likely at
times. For the nearshore, A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for
today and tonight for elevated winds and waves, with the Advisory
extending through Tuesday for locations north of Port Washington,
where waves will remain elevated.

Boxell

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 4 AM Tuesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643 until 7 PM Tuesday.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
235 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     Hail             Dodgeville              42.96N 90.12W
10/23/2023  M0.25 inch       Iowa               WI   Law Enforcement

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
255 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

WIZ057-063-232045-
Columbia WI-Dane WI-
255 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN COLUMBIA AND
NORTHERN DANE COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM CDT...

At 254 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cross Plains, or near Middleton, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Sun Prairie, Fitchburg, Middleton, Waunakee, Verona,
McFarland, Monona, Windsor, Marshall, Deforest, Cottage Grove, Cross
Plains, Lodi, Poynette, Mazomanie, Shorewood Hills, Black Earth,
Maple Bluff, and Rio.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 39/90/94 between mile markers 117 and 137.
 U.S. Highway 18 between mile markers 74 and 84.
 U.S. Highway 12 between mile markers 249 and 269.
 U.S. Highway 151 between mile markers 98 and 113.
 Interstate 39/90 between mile markers 138 and 142.
 Interstate 94 between mile markers 241 and 254.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4295 8959 4319 8983 4352 8915 4311 8901
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 243DEG 49KT 4313 8960

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KUROSKI

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