Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
325 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 325 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023)

Today through Thursday:

The warm front has lifted across southern Wisconsin, but the
numerous outflow boundaries moving through the area have kind
of washed the front out. These outflow boundaries are helping to
initiate multiple clusters of thunderstorms across the area and
have brought gusty outflow winds. These showers and storms are
moving quickly and have become more isolated to scattered, so
will allow the Flood Watch to expire at 4 AM.

The surface low, which is currently lifting into southeast Minnesota
will continue to lift north into northwest Wisconsin and the
Arrowhead of Minnesota later this afternoon and evening. This will
push a cold front across our area later this morning. It still
looks like this cold front will initiate some showers and storms
through mid-day. There remains a potential for a few strong to
severe storm through mid-day, but overall models have backed off
quite a bit on the expectations for severe weather.

By this afternoon, the front moves over into lower Michigan and
conditions dry out across southern Wisconsin. Behind the front,
west-southwest winds will increase and gust 35 to 40 mph. The
cold air advection continues into Wednesday night, along with
gusty westerly winds. Thus, expect a colder night ahead. The
gusty west winds will hang on through Thursday, but conditions
will remain dry. While temperatures will be mainly in the 40s we
should see full sunshine.

Anderson

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 325 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023)

Thursday Night through Tuesday:

Models have backed off a bit on the potential for a narrow band of
light snow Thursday night. While it remains possible, have kept
the forecast dry for now given the latest trends. Otherwise, high
pressure moves over for the end of the work week and brings
pleasant weather to the area. As WAA returns, a front boundary
looks to sharpen up across Wisconsin late Friday and into the
weekend. This area will become the focus for precipitation;
however, there remains uncertainty in how far north this frontal
boundary sets up. It could be across central WI or far northern
WI. Opted to leave NBM PoPs alone for now, which keeps the focus
for precipitation north of the area for the weekend and gradually
introduces a nice warm up. By late weekend and into early next
week, we could be looking at 70 degree temperatures across much of
the area. Of course, depending on the wind direction near Lake
Michigan it could be cooler.

Anderson

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 325 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023)

Ceilings and visibilities differ greatly across the area this
morning, depending on where the terminal is in relation to the
warm front, ongoing convection, and Lake Michigan. Expect the
potential for LIFR to MVFR conditions through mid to late morning,
with chances for showers and thunderstorms. A cold front moves
through mid-day, bringing gusty southwest to west winds. As cold
air aloft moves in, there may be a lingering period of MVFR
ceilings through this evening.

Anderson

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 325 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023)

Issued a Marine Dense Fog for the nearshore waters and southern
half of Lake Michigan as models have strong indications of dense
fog developing this morning and lingering until the cold front
clears the area later today. We also have fog already evident in
the nearshore via shoreline webcams.

A few areas of easterly gales may continue across the northern
third of Lake Michigan, especially across the Straits of Mackinac
this morning. These easterly winds should relax later this morning
as the surface low currently in northern Iowa tracks north across
the Arrowhead of Minnesota and western Lake Superior by this
afternoon and evening. As this low lifts north, a cold front will
pass over Lake Michigan later this morning/early afternoon. It is
possible there will be a few gale force gusts as the front moves
through, but it doesn't look to linger long enough to need a gale
headline.

While we should see a break in the gales today, southwest to west
gales return to the northern two-thirds of Lake Michigan late
this afternoon and through much of the day on Thursday. An
additional gale warning has been issued for this second round of
gales. Further south on the lake, southwest to west winds gust
upwards of 30 knots later this afternoon through Thursday. Winds
over Lake Michigan will relax Thursday night as high pressure
builds in for the end of the week. Later this weekend/early next
week, southerly winds return.

For the nearshore, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect, but
does transition over to a Gale Warning later this morning and
lingers through this afternoon. It may be marginal at times, but
as colder air moves in behind the passing cold front later this
morning wind gusts of 35 knots cannot be ruled out.

Anderson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flood Watch...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058-
     WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ067-
     WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 4 AM Wednesday.

LM...Dense Fog Advisory...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-
     LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 3 PM
     Wednesday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563 until 7 AM Wednesday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565...4 PM
     Wednesday to 7 PM Thursday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 AM Wednesday to 7
     PM Wednesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 AM
     Wednesday.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
159 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-060700-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
159 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms will impact the area this morning. A few strong to
severe storms are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm reports will be much appreciated this morning.

LMZ643>646-060700-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
159 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through early morning, then a
Gale Warning goes into effect later this morning and into this
evening. Gales wind down this evening, but Small Craft
conditions may linger into the overnight hours.

Strong to potentially severe storms are possible through this
morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Small Craft conditions linger through Thursday.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-060700-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
159 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A Gale Warning is in effect for the northern third of Lake
Michigan through early morning. Another Gale Warning goes into
effect this evening through Tonight across the northern two-
thirds.

There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms through this
morning.

Locally dense fog may develop over Lake Michigan through mid-day.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Gales continue across the northern two-thirds on Thursday.

www.weather.gov/mkx

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
309 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

WIZ066-070>072-050845-
Walworth WI-Milwaukee WI-Racine WI-Kenosha WI-
309 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

...Strong line of thunderstorms will impact portions of southern
Milwaukee, southeastern Walworth, Racine and Kenosha Counties
through 345 AM CDT...

At 308 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Wind Point to near Pell Lake. Movement was
northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Milwaukee, Kenosha, Racine, Greenfield, Oak Creek, Mount Pleasant,
South Milwaukee, Pleasant Prairie, Cudahy, Antioch, Greendale, St.
Francis, Lake Geneva, Sturtevant, Union Grove, Paddock Lake,
Franklin, Camp Lake, Winthrop Harbor, and Twin Lakes.

This includes the following highways...
 U.S. Highway 12 between mile markers 331 and 338.
 Interstate 41/94 between mile markers 317 and 349.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4284 8810 4284 8807 4287 8807 4296 8796
      4296 8785 4285 8783 4278 8775 4261 8782
      4249 8780 4250 8851
TIME...MOT...LOC 0808Z 232DEG 52KT 4281 8781 4250 8837

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

WAGNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
322 AM CDT WED APR 5 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 S HUSTISFORD          43.31N 88.60W
04/05/2023                   DODGE              WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF 2 OR 3 UPROOTED TREES WITH A SHED
            BLOWN APART. THE ROOF WAS BLOWN ACROSS THE
            ROAD. REPORT WAS DURING THE TIME A OUTFLOW
            BOUNDARY CAME THROUGH.

&&

JA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
425 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

WIZ062-067-051000-
Lafayette WI-Iowa WI-
425 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Lafayette and
southwestern Iowa Counties through 500 AM CDT...

At 424 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Platteville to near St. Donatus. Movement
was northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mineral Point, Darlington, Shullsburg, Belmont, Benton, New Diggings,
Elk Grove, Rewey, Platte Mounds, Calamine, and Lead Mine.

This includes U.S. Highway 151 between mile markers 23 and 38.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4285 9043 4286 9042 4287 9006 4251 9012
      4251 9042
TIME...MOT...LOC 0924Z 239DEG 43KT 4278 9057 4237 9064

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

ANDERSON