River Flood Warning 10, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
235 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

.SHORT TERM...
(Issued 235 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023)

Rest of this afternoon through Wednesday night:

Low level easterly prevails while surface warm front continues to
nudge closer from central Illinois. Isolated to scattered elevated
convection has prevailed with MUCAPE values increasing into far
srn WI/northern Il. Potential continues for large hail with any
cells in this environment. Watching the cells in far SE WI into
NE IL. Stout low level inversion should keep the stronger wind potential
at bay with this afternoon activity. The RAP Bufkit sounding shows
the scenario quite well with the impressive low level inversion
with the pre-warm frontal easterly flow and elevated CAPE exceeding
1300 J/KG rooted from around 5k feet.

Primary focus then shifts to next rounds overnight that will have
even more instability to work with as the surface warm front starts
to work into srn WI. High MUCAPE/impressive mid level lapse rates
will be in play. The tornado threat will likely be with any discrete
cells near the warm front into far south central WI where low level
inversion erodes and potential for surface based convection increases.
Much of the widespread storms may focus with lower level/925-700 millibar
frontogenetical forcing.

Have issued a flash flood watch with potential for the west/east
oriented band of lower level frontogenesis ahead of surface warm
front. 925/850 moisture transport pushing precipitable water
values to 1.3 inches which is in the 99th percentile. LLJ will be
enhancing the lift into the boundary with Corfidi vectors becoming
smaller/weakening considerably during the night. So there is
concern for not only training north of the warm front but also
higher rainfall rates associated with the more discrete cells that
may evolve due to the unusually high moisture.

The cold front is expected to clear our eastern areas around
midday Wednesday with gusty cold advection taking hold with a
westerly flow regime through Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Issued 235 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023)

Thursday through Tuesday:

The westerly winds will persist into Thursday. Surface ridging starts
to take hold Thursday night into Friday. May see a frontogenetical
band of precip graze our north Friday night into Saturday but at
this point the better chance of this looks to be more across northern
and central WI. Main story then looks to be a warmer pattern
setting up into early next week that will likely last into the
middle of the week as well.

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 235 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023)

Main focus is on rounds of storms through midday Wednesday.
Elevated convection will prevail into the evening hours and for
much of the overnight. Still thinking that surface warm front may
sneak in to the far south later this evening. Some surfaced based
convection possible along and south of the surface warm front.
Bulk of storms should wind down towards 09z or thereabouts.
Widespread IFR ceilings will persist anywhere north of the
advancing warm front. May transition to MVFR for a time south of
the front possibly becoming VFR for a time in the far southeast
later tonight into Wednesday morning. MVFR cigs will likely return
in the wake of the cold front Wednesday afternoon/evening with the
strengthening caa and low level thermal trough. We may then see
an additional band of storms take shape along that eastward advancing
cold front during the morning into the early afternoon hours on
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
(Issued 235 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023)

Have left going marine small craft and gale headlines in place
with strong easterly flow in place ahead of northward moving warm
front approaching from the south. Strong cold front will pass
midday wednesday with a strong westerly flow after its passage.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flood Watch...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058-
     WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ067-
     WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072...7 PM Tuesday to 4 AM
     Wednesday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878 until 1 AM Wednesday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
     LMZ868 until 7 AM Wednesday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 AM Wednesday to 7
     PM Wednesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 AM
     Wednesday.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
213 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-051915-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
213 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected. Large hail,
damaging winds and heavy rainfall is expected. A few tornadoes
are possible this evening and into tonight primarily south of
I-94.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect from 7 PM through 4 AM for all of
southern Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms are Wednesday morning. A few strong to severe storms
are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm reports will be much appreciated through Wednesday morning.

LMZ643>646-051915-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
213 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect.

Strong to potentially severe storms are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

A Gale Warning goes into effect Wednesday morning into Wednesday
evening. These gales may continue into Thursday.

There is a chance for strong to severe storms Wednesday morning.
Large hail is possible.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-051915-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
213 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Gale Warning is in effect.

There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms.

Locally dense fog may develop over Lake Michigan.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

Additional gales are possible later Wednesday and Thursday,
especially across the northern third of Lake Michigan.

There is a chance for strong to severe storms Wednesday morning.

www.weather.gov/mkx

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