Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Miami, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
317 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Showers and thunderstorms dominate the sensible weather across South
Florida for the next couple of days. Deep mid to upper level
troughing remains dominant across the eastern CONUS. A deep upper
level trough is pushing away from the Northeast states while an
additional upper low is deepening and pushing towards the Southeast
this afternoon. As a result, surface flow across South Florida
remains west to southwest through the period, keeping abundant
moisture through the boundary layer. Shower and thunderstorm
development is likely once again later this afternoon as the sea
breezes push inland. Convective initiation will likely occur
across the Everglades and push to the east-southeast through the
evening hours. With more of a westerly component to the winds
today, a greater concentration of showers and storms over the
metro areas is expected. With PWATs of about 2 inches, ample
moisture is in place for any slow-moving or training activity to
cause localized flooding issues across portions of the eastern
metro areas. A few of these storms may become strong to severe
with damaging wind gusts being the primary hazard in any stronger
activity that develops.

Tuesday is an almost identical forecast to today. Surface flow
remains southwesterly with a round of isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms expected to develop in the mid-afternoon hours. A
mid-level dry air intrusion may be able to limit coverage for the
afternoon hours tomorrow although there should still be enough
moisture and instability for at least a few thunderstorms. High
temperatures will be in the lower 90s today and tomorrow with heat
indices pushing into the lower 100s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Not to much change in the weather pattern across the region
towards the middle of the week as a cut off mid level low over
the Southeast will continue to be the dominate feature during
this time frame. With deep tropical moisture continuing to advect
into the region, the chances of showers and thunderstorms will
remain elevated and the potential for heavy downpours will remain
in place. This will continue to create the potential for
localized flooding as well especially over the east coast metro
areas where recent rounds of heavy rainfall have occurred over
the past several days. Some strong thunderstorm development will
also be possible each day as the cut off low could continue to
enhance lift over the area. The strongest storms could contain
gusty winds as well as frequent lightning. High temperatures
towards the middle of the week will generally remain in the lower
90s across most of South Florida.

Heading towards the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend,
the latest ensemble guidance shows the mid level cut off low
lifting off to the north and opening up to a mid level trough over
the eastern seaboard. With the south to southwesterly steering
flow continuing over the mid levels, this will continue to allow
for deep tropical moisture surges to move over the region during
this time frame. While the exact details still remain highly
uncertain, the chances of showers and thunderstorms will remain
on the higher side through the end of the week and into the
weekend. This will allow for the potential for localized flooding
to continue especially over the east coast metro areas where
rounds of heavy rainfall have occurred earlier in the week. High
temperatures will generally remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s
across most areas for the end of the week and into the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with west-southwest
winds across all sites. TEMPOs for thunderstorms for eastern sites
through 23Z. Short fuse amendments may be necessary as convection
develops later this afternoon. L/V winds and dry conditions expected
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1232 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

A generally moderate to robust south to southwesterly flow is
expected to continue across the Atlantic marine zones and the Gulf
waters through the majority of the week. Expect seas mainly around 2
feet or less over the Gulf waters and 3 feet or less over the
Atlantic waters. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will be possible each day. Any thunderstorms that form could produce

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  92  78  91 /  30  50  20  60
West Kendall     75  93  76  93 /  20  50  20  50
Opa-Locka        75  92  77  92 /  30  50  20  60
Homestead        74  91  76  90 /  30  40  20  50
Fort Lauderdale  75  90  77  89 /  40  50  20  60
N Ft Lauderdale  76  92  77  91 /  40  50  20  60
Pembroke Pines   75  92  76  92 /  30  50  20  60
West Palm Beach  74  92  75  91 /  50  60  30  70
Boca Raton       75  93  76  92 /  50  60  30  60
Naples           80  92  80  93 /  20  40  30  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...Rizzuto
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...Rizzuto

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