Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1201 AM CDT Tue May 9 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 PM CDT Mon May 8 2023

Showers and thunderstorms have blossomed across southern MO. A
cold pool is starting to develop and the MCS will continue tracking
toward the Mid-South. It should reach the Bootheel by 0330Z.
MLCAPES are still running around 3000 j/kg and mid level lapse
rates remain quite steep at 7.5 c/km. There is about 30 kts of
0-6km bulk shear along and north of the KY/MO border that is
aiding storm organization. Expect a few severe storms across the
northern tier overnight with damaging wind and large hail.
Activity should gradually weaken as the MCS drops south away from
the zone of higher 0-6km shear while at the same time the airmass
gradually stabilizes.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon May 8 2023

An unsettled pattern featuring warm temperatures, high humidity
and periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue for the
next several days. A cold front is expected to stall across the
Midsouth for at least a couple of days Wednesday through Friday
further enhancing our chance of rain. Expect high temperatures in
the 80s with lows mostly in the 60s tonight through the weekend.
Long term guidance is suggesting cooler conditions could return
next week.

30/Sirmon

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Sunday) Issued at 207 PM
CDT Mon May 8 2023

Area radars are quiet early this afternoon. Temperatures are in
the low to middle 80s across most of the area and will likely warm
another degree or two resulting in afternoon highs in the upper
80s or even low 90s. There is a chance of thunderstorm development
this afternoon, mainly over west Tennessee where outflow from this
mornings MCS lingers. Forecast SB CAPE this afternoon is over
3,000J/KG for much of the area. Moderately strong 35-45kt deep
layer shear is in place over west TN along with steep lapse
rates. Healthy updrafts should be well maintained with any storms
that develop. Storm clusters capable of producing large hail and
damaging wind are possible.

High resolution short term guidance continues to be fairly
bullish in bringing another MCS through the Midsouth tonight.
Global long term models aren't as aggressive but given what we
have seen for the past couple of nights, I would have to favor the
more aggressive solutions. Expect storms to develop over central
and south Missouri around sunset and move south across the
Midsouth at 30-40 mph overnight. Damaging wind should be the
primary threat tonight. The storm threat should diminish quickly
around sunrise.

The Storm Prediction Center has included much of the Midsouth
along and north of the Interstate 40 corridor in a Slight risk
for severe storms in their day 1(today and tonight) outlook with a
Marginal risk for the remainder of the Midsouth.

A ridge will build into the area from the west tomorrow helping
to suppress convection. However, we are expected to see high
temperatures approach 90 degrees which should be enough to break
the cap. Thunderstorms will be most likely during the afternoon
and any lingering outflow from an overnight MCS could promote
convective initiation.

Return flow should begin late Wednesday and a warm front will lift
into the region early Thursday. The front will likely stall
somewhere across north Mississippi into northeast Arkansas and
linger through the end of the work week or maybe even into
Saturday. This feature will keep our rain chances elevated
although nothing looks very organized from a severe weather
perspective. The weekend looks warm and showery. Long term
guidance suggests we may see an airmass change early next week.

30/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Mon May 8 2023

An MCS will dive into the area in the next few hours. This fast
moving system will push through each TAF site and likely be out of
the area around 11z. All sites should remain VFR outside of
thunderstorm development. Expect southwest winds around 04-06 kts
to shift northwest by mid morning.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...SWB

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1103 PM CDT Mon May 8 2023

TNZ002-003-019-020-090445-
Weakley TN-Obion TN-Dyer TN-Gibson TN-
1103 PM CDT Mon May 8 2023

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Weakley,
northeastern Dyer, northwestern Gibson and eastern Obion Counties
through 1145 PM CDT...

At 1103 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Clayton to near Ridgely to near Hayti
Heights. Movement was southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Dyersburg, Martin, Union City, Fulton, Newbern, South Fulton, Dyer,
Troy, Kenton, Rutherford, Obion, Bradleytown, Trimble, Rives,
Yorkville, Lapata, Locust Grove, Jenkinsville, Shaffner and Maxey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 8873 3615 8891 3598 8915 3598 8918
      3600 8919 3599 8919 3603 8955 3616 8933
      3650 8907
TIME...MOT...LOC 0403Z 303DEG 32KT 3650 8928 3629 8947 3617 8979

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SJM

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