Alert archive / Mississippi / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2023

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Memphis, TN

June 16, 2023Prentiss County, Mississippi

NWS Memphis, TN issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 16, 2023, 3:07 PM CDT for Prentiss County, Mississippi. It was in force for 38 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jun 16, 2023, 3:07 PM CDT (20:07 UTC)
Expired: Jun 16, 2023, 3:45 PM CDT
In force: 38 min
Issued by: NWS Memphis, TN
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Prentiss County, MS

The radar

The Columbus AFB radar (KGWX), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 133 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2043 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 75 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 93 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 16, 12:42 PM CDT, 2 hours 25 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 16, 12:42 PM CDT, 2 hours 25 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1242 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 354 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Seasonally warm and humid conditions will prevail over the
Midsouth through the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will be
possible each day, with peak rain chances on Sunday. The severe
thunderstorm risk area will extend along and south of a line from
Jonesboro to Memphis to Tupelo through Saturday.

Sunday will bring a chance of severe storms to most of the Midsouth,
ahead of a low pressure trough lifting out of the Great Plains.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary severe weather
threats on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Split upper level flow will prevail over the US and southern
Canada through the weekend, as a vestigial omega block pattern
remains. An upper level height ridge over the central and northern
Great Plains will continue to bring dry and warm conditions to
those areas. To the south of this ridge, a 75-90kt 250mb
subtropical jet will round the main subtropical height ridge,
centered over northern Mexico. This subtropical jet axis will
extend from the southern plains into the lower MS River valley.
Besides influencing the position of the main storm corridor, this
upper jet will provide spring-like bulk shear in proximity to
summer instability. As an example, last evening's 00Z FWD (Fort
Worth, TX) RAOB measured 5100 J/kg of mixed layer instability and
70kt of effective bulk shear.

Today's main storm track will extend from the Arklatex into
central and southern MS. This afternoon will likely see a
secondary storm corridor develop downstream of a weakening upper
low moving east/southeast of southern KS. Scattered storms will
likely form over central and northern AR by midafternoon, then
continue to develop southeast into the Midsouth. Areas along and
south of a Jonesboro to Memphis to Tupelo line appear most likely
to experience mid/late afternoon thunderstorms. Mixed layer CAPE
will prevail near 2000 J/kg over this area, accompanied by 35-45kt
effective bulk shear. Steeper midlevel lapse rates and slightly
greater instability will favor larger hail over the delta,
south and west of Memphis. The aforementioned weakening upper low
will drop southeast through the Midsouth tonight, providing a
continued chance of storms over north MS.

Upper level ridging will limit storm chances over the Midsouth on
Saturday. This ridging will be brief, ahead of a progressive
trough lifting through the plains. Storms will form over the
southern plains Saturday afternoon and likely enter eastern AR in
the predawn hours Sunday. This initial round of storms will be
tied to an initial shortwave. A second, possibly stronger shortwave
will eject through the Midsouth late Sunday afternoon and evening,
which will enhance severe thunderstorm chances during peak heating.

For early next week, the medium range models are consistent in
forming a cut-off low, centered over middle and east TN. Scattered,
mainly daytime storms will be possible east of the MS River. To
the west, an upper level ridge will build through the plains,
providing midsummer like heat and dry conditions.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Upstream convection over northwest and central Arkansas combined
with peak afternoon heating will be the focus for showers and
thunderstorms at TAF sites this afternoon and evening. Convective
initiation is anticipated to occur in the 19-21Z timeframe at TAF
sites and last into tonight. Instability may be weak enough to go
with prevailing VCSH for a few hours but enough elevated
instability justifies a mention of VCTS for the 4-8Z time frame
tonight. Mainly VFR conditions outside of thunderstorms and light
winds expected through the period.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...CJC

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 16, 2:47 PM CDT, 20 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jun 16, 2:49 PM CDT, 18 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jun 16, 2:52 PM CDT, 15 minutes before

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Local storm report, Jun 16, 3:04 PM CDT, 3 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
304 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0203 PM     Hail             2 W Trumann             35.68N 90.56W
06/16/2023  E0.88 inch       Poinsett           AR   Public

            Nickel size hail reported at Central Ford
            Dealership.

&&

AC3

Special weather statement, Jun 16, 3:06 PM CDT, 1 minute before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
306 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

ARZ036-TNZ088-162030-
Crittenden AR-Shelby TN-
306 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Crittenden and central Shelby Counties through 330 PM CDT...

At 305 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Frayser, or 8 miles south of Meeman Shelby Forest State Park, moving
east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bartlett, Marion, Millington, Meeman Shelby Forest State Park,
Cordova, Memphis, Sunset, Jericho, Ellendale, Downtown Memphis,
Frayser, Midtown Memphis, Mound City, Griffin Corner, Gammon,
Woodstock, St Clair, Harvard, Locke and Elmore Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3527 9028 3540 9011 3538 9008 3539 9004
      3517 8974 3506 8995
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 257DEG 10KT 3522 9003

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

CJC

Local storm report, Jun 16, 3:07 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
307 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     Hail             Ripley                  34.73N 88.95W
06/16/2023  E1.00 inch       Tippah             MS   Public

            Quarter size hail fell in Ripley. Time is
            radar estimated.

&&

AC3

The office that day

Everything else NWS Memphis, TN issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 16, 2:24 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Tippah	36 min
Jun 16, 2:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Marshall	29 min
Jun 16, 2:49 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Prentiss	26 min
Jun 16, 3:19 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Itawamba, Lee, Prentiss	41 min
Jun 16, 3:27 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	DeSoto	33 min
Jun 16, 3:34 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Union	41 min
Jun 16, 3:48 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	DeSoto, Marshall	3 hr
Jun 16, 3:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Itawamba, Prentiss	50 min
Jun 16, 4:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Monroe	29 min
Jun 16, 4:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	DeSoto, Tate	23 min
Jun 16, 4:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lee, Tippah, Union	49 min
Jun 16, 4:14 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Chickasaw	31 min
Jun 16, 4:23 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MEG	Itawamba, Lee, Union	3 hr
Jun 16, 4:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning Considerable damage threat	MEG	DeSoto, Tate	34 min
Jun 16, 4:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Monroe	45 min
Jun 16, 4:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Chickasaw, Monroe	42 min
Jun 16, 4:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lafayette, Marshall, Tate	23 min
Jun 16, 4:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Lee, Pontotoc, Union	41 min
Jun 16, 4:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Monroe	49 min
Jun 16, 5:01 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Monroe	29 min
Jun 16, 5:06 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Monroe	39 min
Jun 16, 5:22 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MEG	DeSoto, Marshall, Tate	113 min
Jun 16, 5:23 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Chickasaw, Itawamba, Lee, Monroe, Pontotoc, Prentiss and 1 more	3 hr
Jun 16, 5:44 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Chickasaw, Monroe	31 min
Jun 16, 1:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Fayette, Shelby, Tipton	33 min
Jun 16, 2:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Fayette, Shelby	36 min
Jun 16, 2:39 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MEG	Fayette, Shelby	3 hr
Jun 16, 3:06 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Shelby	24 min
Jun 16, 1:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Craighead, Crittenden, Mississippi, Poinsett	25 min
Jun 16, 3:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MEG	Mississippi	30 min
Jun 16, 4:22 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MEG	Crittenden	38 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Mississippi, 2023 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2023

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.