Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
343 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Thunderstorms will continue through the evening hours. A few
storms could be severe with heavy rain, hail and gusty winds being
the main threats. Sunday will bring a chance of severe storms to
most of the Midsouth, ahead of a low pressure trough lifting out
of the Great Plains. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
primary severe weather threats on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the evening hours.
Some storms can be severe with hail, winds, and heavy rain being
the main threats. Storms are training over the same areas so some
minor street flooding is possible. The good news is that storms
should diminish over the next 3 to 6 hours. We catch a break
Saturday as upper level ridging will limit storm chances. This
ridging will be brief, ahead of a progressive trough lifting
through the plains. We still have a Slight Risk over the Mid South
for Sunday, and we expect this area to be expanded and possibly
upgraded. The unfortunate thing is guidance still is struggling
with timing of storms on Sunday. We expect some prefrontal
convection on Sunday morning, but the more significant storms that
carry the greater chance to be severe should occur in the
afternoon and evening hours on Sunday. For early next week,
the medium range models are consistent in forming a cut-off low,
centered over middle and east TN. Scattered, mainly daytime storms
will be possible east of the MS River. To the west, an upper
level ridge will build through the plains, providing midsummer
like heat and dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

Upstream convection over northwest and central Arkansas combined
with peak afternoon heating will be the focus for showers and
thunderstorms at TAF sites this afternoon and evening. Convective
initiation is anticipated to occur in the 19-21Z timeframe at TAF
sites and last into tonight. Instability may be weak enough to go
with prevailing VCSH for a few hours but enough elevated
instability justifies a mention of VCTS for the 4-8Z time frame
tonight. Mainly VFR conditions outside of thunderstorms and light
winds expected through the period.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...MJH
AVIATION...CJC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
500 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     Hail             1 W Independence        34.70N 89.82W
06/16/2023  E1.75 inch       Tate               MS   Public

&&

DKJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
501 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     Hail             1 SSW New Hamilton      33.73N 88.45W
06/16/2023  E1.75 inch       Monroe             MS   Public

            Corrects previous hail report from 1 SSW New
            Hamilton.

&&

DKJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
501 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

MSZ017-024-162230-
Itawamba MS-Monroe MS-
501 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Itawamba and northeastern Monroe Counties through 530 PM CDT...

At 500 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Smithville, or 9 miles east of Amory, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Smithville, Gattman, Splunge, Parham, Sipsey Fork and Turon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northeastern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3387 8823 3398 8839 3409 8842 3416 8820
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 327DEG 10KT 3404 8832

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

MJ

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
502 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     Hail             6 NE Aberdeen           33.89N 88.48W
06/16/2023  E1.75 inch       Monroe             MS   Trained Spotter

            Trained spotter reports golf ball size hail
            on light rock road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
507 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     Hail             4 SW New Wren           33.92N 88.66W
06/16/2023  E1.75 inch       Monroe             MS   Trained Spotter

            Corrects previous hail report from 6 NE
            Aberdeen. Trained spotter reports golf ball
            size hail on light rock road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
519 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     Hail             5 N Prairie             33.87N 88.66W
06/16/2023  E0.88 inch       Monroe             MS   Public

&&

DKJ