Special Weather Statement, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
631 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

After a momentous amount of much needed rain across portions of
the area yesterday, another round is expected tonight. In the
meantime, skies have mostly cleared across much of the region,
allowing temperatures to rise into the 70s and reaching near 80
later this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon and evening along the higher elevations of the Guadalupe
and Delaware Mountains. More widespread activity develops late
this evening. The large upper-level trough we have been tracking
continues to translate eastward overnight, bringing with it a cold
front. Along this front, a slow-moving line of thunderstorms is
expected to form from southeast New Mexico to the Davis Mountains.
These thunderstorms slowly slide eastward overnight, reaching
Midland/Odessa shortly after midnight. Any thunderstorms within
this line will be capable of producing locally strong wind gusts
and very heavy rainfall. Flooding potential may be limited to the
leading edge of this complex but a relatively slow translational
speed could allow for a quick 1-2 inches of rainfall in some
locations. This activity begins to exit the region to the east by
sunrise tomorrow. Much more stable air follows in its wake,
keeping the area dry for Wednesday. Temperatures can be expected
to be a few degrees cooler tomorrow with clearing skies throughout
the day from west to east.

Chehak

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

Thursday, a broad, upper trough will be digging out of the PacNW,
leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under southwest flow
aloft. Thicknesses/temperatures will be on a slow and minimal
increase Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures Saturday
afternoon will be perhaps the warmest this forecast, yet topping
out only around 10F above normal as most highs remain in the 80s.
Return flow will sharpen up a weak dryline Friday, with a little
convection possible over the eastern zones.

Unfortunately, a strong cold front, perhaps the strongest this
fall, will backdoor the area late Saturday night, bringing much
colder temperatures to West texas and Southeast New Mexico into
next week. The GFS, ECMWF, and CMC are all in agreement that
temperatures From KMAF north will remain steady or even fall
throughout the day Sunday. NBM is slowly catching on to this, but
with all available long-range models in agreement, the NBM 25th
percentile looks more appropriate for highs Sunday afternoon. This
may need to be brought down even further as the event approaches
and models come into better alignment on timing/strength of the
front. As the front moves in, a triple point will develop in
Southeast New Mexico, and showers/thunderstorms will be possible
east and south Sunday through Monday morning.

Temperatures behind the front look to be cold, hinting at the
first  freeze of the fall Sunday night northern Lea County and
the higher elevations of the Guadalupes/Davis Mountains.
Temperatures will remain well-below normal through the rest of the
extended, w/dry grids after Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing at issuance west of CNM and
invof INK, though the primary concern is a line of thunderstorms
that will develop west of CNM this evening, and then sweep east
across the region overnight. Have included VCTS/TEMPO mention at
all terminals tonight, with MVFR conditions in heavy rain likely
where storms impact terminals. Winds will also be erratic and
gusty in the vicinity of any storms or outflow boundaries through
tonight. Ahead of storms, SE winds are expected, shifting to the
west as storms progress eastward, then returning to the south by
18Z. VFR conditions will prevail outside of storm activity, with
the exception of MAF, where MVFR ceilings look to persist until
around 21Z before improving to VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               64  76  56  81 /  80  70  20   0
Carlsbad                 56  76  53  81 /  80   0   0   0
Dryden                   66  81  58  81 /  70  70  10   0
Fort Stockton            60  81  55  85 /  80  30   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           52  67  51  74 /  80   0   0   0
Hobbs                    57  74  51  79 /  80  10   0   0
Marfa                    51  74  47  80 /  70   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     63  76  55  80 /  90  50  10   0
Odessa                   63  76  56  81 /  80  40  10   0
Wink                     61  79  54  84 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...91
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...84

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1131 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-251645-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
1131 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2023 /1031 AM MDT Tue Oct 24 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
tonight across Southeast New Mexico and most of West Texas.  Any
severe storms that do develop will be accompanied by large hail,
damaging winds, and an isolated tornado.  Heavy rainfall may also
result in flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a low risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and
evening, mainly across the Western Low Rolling Plains.  Any severe
storms that do develop will be accompanied by large hail and
damaging winds.  Heavy rainfall may also result in flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

44

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