Flash Flood Warning 88, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

208 
WGUS74 KMAF 240327
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1027 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

TXC329-240500-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0088.000000T0000Z-231024T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Midland TX-
1027 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT 
FOR NORTHWESTERN MIDLAND COUNTY...

At 1027 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing 
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain 
have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1 inch are possible 
in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin 
shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Midland and Midland Airpark.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3209 10197 3196 10193 3191 10215 3206 10220
      3209 10206 3209 10203

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

David Hennig

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
714 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

Current radar shows a shield of showers and storms stretching from
the Davis Mountains across to the Stockton Plateau and northward
across the Permian Basin. A few spots have already recorded between
a half inch to an inch with locally higher amounts possible. KMAF
has already recorded 0.57" today, which is the highest in a single
day all year. More rain is expected over the course of this
afternoon and into tonight mainly for areas east of Fort Stockton
and Midland/Odessa. With PWATs remaining well above an inch, another
half inch to an inch of rain is possible, especially in stronger
rain storms. Localized flash flooding also continues to be a threat.

Much of the region will see a lull in the rain tonight and into
early tomorrow morning as the remnants of Norma push to the east.
Tomorrow afternoon should see highs rebound back into the upper 70s
to low 80s as rain chances and cloud cover will be much lower
compared to today. An upper level low will move into the area behind
the remnants of Norma late Tuesday and into early Wednesday morning.
Associated with this upper low will be a front moving in from the
west that will setup our region's second round of precipitation. Hi-
resolution guidance suggests a line of storms moving across the area
around that time. Severe storms may be possible with this line as
ample shear and lapse rates between 6-7 C/km with some instability
will be available. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main
threats along with lightning and brief heavy rain. Temperatures
Wednesday night fall into the 60s to the east and into the mid to
upper 50s to the west.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

Wednesday begins with a closed low over Nrn Mexico with a ridge
centered over the Gulf Coast.  The low will lift across NM Wednesday
and track across the Panhandle overnight moving into KS by Thursday
morning.  As it does a low over the NW will move inland across WA
and OR before tracking across ID Thursday.  On Friday a secondary
lobe will swing across WA and OR and move down across the Great
Basin over the weekend. This will put the region into SW flow aloft.

Cooler temperatures Wednesday with highs in the 70s with 80s
returning to most of the region Thursday and Friday.  Similar on
Saturday before dropping a bit Sunday. Lows in the 50s and 60s. Late
in the forecast a strong cold front blows into the area so a colder
temps are on the horizon.

So far to date 2023 has been the driest year on record for MAF.
However moisture from former Hurricane Norma is flowing up across
TX, and showers and storms that develop will be tropical in nature
and efficient rain producers.  The rain is forecast to continue
Wednesday with rain likely over the Eastern Permian Basin with pops
decreasing going west.  This will be a continuation of potential for
heavy rain from the short term, A Flash Flood Watch may be
necessary.  May see some lingering rain Wednesday night mainly east
as this rain event comes to an end.  Thursday expected to be dry
then low pops start skirting the area Friday. Could see a little
better chances east Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 710 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

A mixture of VFR/MVFR/IFR CIG/VIS is seen across the area this
evening. Best conditions are west where less rainfall is
occuring. Overnight CIG/VIS will drop to IFR at MAF/HOB/INK. VFR
conditions expected around 18Z tomorrow. No lightning is being
observed in any of the showers so no TS is forecast.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               64  80  65  75 /  90  30  70  70
Carlsbad                 58  82  58  76 /  20  20  60  40
Dryden                   65  81  66  80 /  70  20  70  60
Fort Stockton            60  84  61  78 /  60  10  70  60
Guadalupe Pass           56  74  53  68 /  10  20  70  30
Hobbs                    60  78  58  73 /  30  10  70  50
Marfa                    54  78  53  73 /  20  10  70  40
Midland Intl Airport     64  80  63  75 /  70  20  70  70
Odessa                   65  81  64  75 /  60  20  70  60
Wink                     62  84  62  78 /  40  10  80  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
140 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-241845-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
140 PM CDT Mon Oct 23 2023 /1240 PM MDT Mon Oct 23 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Heavy rainfall with localized flash flooding is possible this
afternoon and tonight mainly over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans
Pecos.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Localized flash flooding is possible Tuesday night and Wednesday,
especially across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Some of
these storms could contain strong winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland