Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
142 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

An upper jet supporting low pressure over California is currently
directed across northern Mexico with a jet max entering far West
Texas. Lift associated with the jet should cause scattered showers
and thunderstorms to develop...initially in the Guadalupe and Davis
mountains over the next couple of hours, then spreading east into
the adjacent plains, Permian Basin, and Trans Pecos. Shear and
instability are enough to support a marginal threat for large hail,
strong winds, and very heavy rain that could create local flooding
problems in areas with poor drainage or are low lying.

We have to enjoy the below normal temperatures today because they
are the last we will see for a while. High pressure over Mexico
builds north and asserts itself as 500mb heights rise from 580dam
today to 584dam Thursday. This combined with westerly winds take
highs into the 90s tomorrow with the upward trend only beginning.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

After below-normal temperatures for the start of June, we are
flipping to the other extreme with above normal highs beginning this
weekend and continuing through the long term period. On Friday, the
upper ridge which has been comfortably sitting to our west will
shift over Texas in response to an upper low over NV, increasing
thickness for the area. This, along with consistent southerly
surface flow, will produce temperatures in the 90s and 100s
through next week. Areas along the Trans Pecos could see triple
digit temperatures as early as Friday or Saturday while much of
the Permian Basin will hit triple digits sometime Sunday through
Tuesday. In terms of precipitation, the long term looks dry with
the exception of late Friday as the ridge shifts east and a
disturbance moves across. This could potentially bring a few
thunderstorms to the eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos,
but confidence is low of anything more widespread so will just
maintain minimal POPs for this time period to account for the
uncertainly. There is a non-zero chance of an isolated
thunderstorm developing off the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains
any afternoon next week which shouldn't make it beyond the higher
terrain, but otherwise, a the long term is dry.

A little climatology fun...the current forecast has the first triple
digit day for Midland Int'l Air and Space Port this year as being
Sunday, June 11th. Since 1990, the average date of the first 100+
degree day is May 22nd, so if we hit triple digits on Sunday, that
will be around 20 days later than our average. In the 1990-present
time frame, the latest date we ever hit triple digits at Midland
Int'l occurred in 1992 which was July 1st and the earliest was in
2012 on April 25th!

-Zuber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

The main TAF concern will be scattered TS developing later today.
Storms, some severe, will initially develop in the mountains and
move east potentially affecting any of the TAF sites.
Unfortunately confidence is low so have kept them out of the TAFs
for now. The main threat time frame will be 21-03Z. Otherwise VFR
conditions and light southeast winds will continue.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               62  92  65  98 /  40   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 59  94  62  97 /  40   0   0   0
Dryden                   65  94  68 100 /  50  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            61  94  67  98 /  50   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           59  86  64  88 /  20   0   0   0
Hobbs                    57  91  62  94 /  70   0   0   0
Marfa                    52  89  55  91 /  50   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     62  94  66  97 /  50   0   0   0
Odessa                   62  94  68  98 /  50   0   0   0
Wink                     61  97  65 100 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
114 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-081815-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
114 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 /1214 PM MDT Wed Jun 7 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low potential of severe storms this afternoon and evening
across all of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Any severe storms
that do develop will be accompanied by large hail and/or damaging
winds. Heavy rainfall may also result in flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
529 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

TXZ272-276-072315-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor TX-Marfa Plateau TX-
529 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Jeff Davis
and southwestern Culberson Counties through 615 PM CDT...

At 529 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Van Horn, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Van Horn, Plateau and Culberson County Airport.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 136 and 164.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3115 10490 3112 10446 3106 10442 3085 10447
      3096 10491
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 281DEG 22KT 3106 10487

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

93

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
540 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     Hail             2 N Balmorhea           31.01N 103.74W
06/07/2023  M1.50 inch       Reeves             TX   Public

            ping pong ball sized hail observed along
            I-10 near Balmorhea.

0535 PM     Hail             Balmorhea               30.98N 103.74W
06/07/2023  M2.00 inch       Reeves             TX   Trained Spotter

            2 inch diameter hail observed on the south
            side of Balmorhea.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
553 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     Hail             Van Horn                31.04N 104.83W
06/07/2023  E2.00 inch       Culberson          TX   Law Enforcement

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
558 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     Hail             16 SSE Belding          30.57N 102.93W
06/07/2023  E1.00 inch       Pecos              TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Quarter (1.00 in.).

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
601 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0556 PM     Hail             16 SSE Belding          30.59N 102.89W
06/07/2023  E1.75 inch       Pecos              TX   Trained Spotter

            Quarter to golf ball size hail.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
609 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 PM     Hail             17 SSE Belding          30.56N 102.93W
06/07/2023  E1.50 inch       Pecos              TX   Public

            Report from mPING: Ping Pong Ball (1.50
            in.).

&&