Severe Thunderstorm Warning 176, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
142 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

An upper jet supporting low pressure over California is currently
directed across northern Mexico with a jet max entering far West
Texas. Lift associated with the jet should cause scattered showers
and thunderstorms to develop...initially in the Guadalupe and Davis
mountains over the next couple of hours, then spreading east into
the adjacent plains, Permian Basin, and Trans Pecos. Shear and
instability are enough to support a marginal threat for large hail,
strong winds, and very heavy rain that could create local flooding
problems in areas with poor drainage or are low lying.

We have to enjoy the below normal temperatures today because they
are the last we will see for a while. High pressure over Mexico
builds north and asserts itself as 500mb heights rise from 580dam
today to 584dam Thursday. This combined with westerly winds take
highs into the 90s tomorrow with the upward trend only beginning.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 113 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

After below-normal temperatures for the start of June, we are
flipping to the other extreme with above normal highs beginning this
weekend and continuing through the long term period. On Friday, the
upper ridge which has been comfortably sitting to our west will
shift over Texas in response to an upper low over NV, increasing
thickness for the area. This, along with consistent southerly
surface flow, will produce temperatures in the 90s and 100s
through next week. Areas along the Trans Pecos could see triple
digit temperatures as early as Friday or Saturday while much of
the Permian Basin will hit triple digits sometime Sunday through
Tuesday. In terms of precipitation, the long term looks dry with
the exception of late Friday as the ridge shifts east and a
disturbance moves across. This could potentially bring a few
thunderstorms to the eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos,
but confidence is low of anything more widespread so will just
maintain minimal POPs for this time period to account for the
uncertainly. There is a non-zero chance of an isolated
thunderstorm developing off the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains
any afternoon next week which shouldn't make it beyond the higher
terrain, but otherwise, a the long term is dry.

A little climatology fun...the current forecast has the first triple
digit day for Midland Int'l Air and Space Port this year as being
Sunday, June 11th. Since 1990, the average date of the first 100+
degree day is May 22nd, so if we hit triple digits on Sunday, that
will be around 20 days later than our average. In the 1990-present
time frame, the latest date we ever hit triple digits at Midland
Int'l occurred in 1992 which was July 1st and the earliest was in
2012 on April 25th!

-Zuber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

The main TAF concern will be scattered TS developing later today.
Storms, some severe, will initially develop in the mountains and
move east potentially affecting any of the TAF sites.
Unfortunately confidence is low so have kept them out of the TAFs
for now. The main threat time frame will be 21-03Z. Otherwise VFR
conditions and light southeast winds will continue.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               62  92  65  98 /  40   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 59  94  62  97 /  40   0   0   0
Dryden                   65  94  68 100 /  50  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            61  94  67  98 /  50   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           59  86  64  88 /  20   0   0   0
Hobbs                    57  91  62  94 /  70   0   0   0
Marfa                    52  89  55  91 /  50   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport     62  94  66  97 /  50   0   0   0
Odessa                   62  94  68  98 /  50   0   0   0
Wink                     61  97  65 100 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...10

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
114 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-081815-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
114 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023 /1214 PM MDT Wed Jun 7 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a low potential of severe storms this afternoon and evening
across all of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Any severe storms
that do develop will be accompanied by large hail and/or damaging
winds. Heavy rainfall may also result in flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
355 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

TXZ075-274-072145-
Pecos TX-Reeves County Plains TX-
355 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Pecos,
south central Reeves and eastern Jeff Davis Counties through 445 PM
CDT...

At 355 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles southeast of Balmorhea Lake, or 28 miles northeast of Fort
Davis, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Pecos,
south central Reeves and eastern Jeff Davis Counties.

This includes Interstate 10 between mile markers 226 and 242.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3107 10327 3084 10311 3070 10349 3073 10354
      3085 10361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 240DEG 16KT 3081 10349

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

93

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
407 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

TXZ075-072145-
Pecos TX-
407 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Pecos County
through 445 PM CDT...

At 406 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles south of Fort Stockton, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Pecos
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3054 10290 3069 10293 3078 10255 3051 10254
TIME...MOT...LOC 2106Z 266DEG 12KT 3064 10283

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

93

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
411 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

TXZ274-277-278-072200-
Reeves County Plains TX-Davis Mountains Foothills TX-
Davis Mountains TX-
411 PM CDT Wed Jun 7 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Reeves,
northern Jeff Davis and southeastern Culberson Counties through 500
PM CDT...

At 411 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Kent, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Saragosa.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 10 between mile markers 179 and 208.
 Interstate 20 between mile markers 0 and 10.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3097 10413 3109 10421 3127 10374 3101 10366
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 255DEG 18KT 3107 10407

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

93

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