Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
156 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

WV imagery shows southwest flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast
new Mexico this afternoon, as an upper trough moves through
Sonora/Chihuahua.  Satellite imagery/area radars show ongoing
convection southwest of Presidio, and this activity is set to cross
the river this afternoon, meeting up with a weak dryline over the
western CWA border.  As such, best chances of convection this
afternoon look to be south of I-10.  Later this evening, the
northern Permian Basin may catch the tail end of a line of
convection extending into the upper Midwest.  Mesoanalysis and 12Z
KMAF RAOB show deep-layer shear is much weaker than yesterday...which
was unimpressive in of itself.  However, CAMs show enough marginal
shear developing late this afternoon over the lower Trans Pecos and
northern Permian Basin that a supercell or two will be possible. Mid-
level lapse rates are 7C/km or better all but the Western Low
Rolling Plains, so large hail remains a threat. A 25+kt LLJ will
keep storms going into the evening hours, but otherwise activity
will diminish to all by the eastern fringes of the CWA by 06Z.
Overnight lows will be right around normal.

Monday, things start to dry out as upper-level ridging starts to
build in from the west.  As such, thicknesses will increase,
bringing highs up to around normal.  isolated convection will be
possible lower Trans Pecos.  Monday night looks dry, with lows at or
above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 155 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

The ridge that has loosely held onto our area will shift slightly to
the west and strengthen leading to near to above average
temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs across the Pecos River
Valley and Marfa Plateau will reach into the mid to upper 90s both
afternoons. Across the Permian Basin temperatures will be in the
upper 80s to low 90s. Rain chances stay low for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Heading into Thursday, the ridge begins to break down and
shower chances increase for areas east of the Pecos River through
the end of the week and into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sun May 28 2023

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Return flow will
persist, remaining elevated overnight in response to surface
troughing in New Mexico. Convective temps should be reached
shortly, spawning as widespread, low-based cu field, w/best
chances of convection KFST this afternoon. Another cu field is
anticipated near the end of the forecast period invof KMAF and
KFST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               62  86  61  88 /  50  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 58  94  60  95 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                   64  87  63  88 /  60  10   0   0
Fort Stockton            63  92  62  92 /  20  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           60  86  61  88 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                    58  88  58  90 /  30  10   0   0
Marfa                    51  87  51  89 /  20  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     62  87  61  89 /  50  10   0   0
Odessa                   63  88  62  89 /  50  10   0   0
Wink                     62  92  62  94 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...44

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