Flash Flood Warning 80, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

904 
WGUS74 KMAF 042102
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
402 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

TXC371-042330-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0080.000000T0000Z-231004T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Pecos TX-
402 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT THIS 
EVENING FOR CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY...

At 402 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy 
rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have 
fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 2 to 3 inches in 1 hour. Flash 
flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
         drainage and low-lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  mainly rural areas of Central Pecos County

This includes the following streams and drainages...
  Sixshooter Draw, Nineteen Draw and Tunas Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law 
enforcement and request they pass this information to the National 
Weather Service when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3094 10276 3092 10260 3094 10238 3079 10237
      3080 10269

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED
EXPECTED RAINFALL RATE...2-3 INCHES IN 1 HOUR

$$

James DeBerry

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
245 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday night)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Buckle up folks, today's weather looks to feature very similar
conditions to yesterday with the added bonus of some extra low level
moisture and a cold front late this evening.

Surface observations show dewpoints of 65-70+ across the Permian
Basin and Stockton Plateau with a dryline backed up against the
higher terrain. Satellite is already showing agitated cumulus and
some preliminary convective initiation across western Pecos County
where the Davis lee-cyclone is present. With fairly straight
hodographs, splitting supercells will be favored in the mid-late
afternoon. With this, the CAMs are depicting an eerily similar
scenario to yesterday in that the convection in Pecos County splits,
sending a left mover through the Permian Basin, perhaps near
Midland/Odessa again. Additional scattered storm development is
expected as the afternoon progresses across the Big Bend along the
dryline as well as the northern Permian Basin in the vicinity of the
cold front. A special 18z sounding launched here shows explosive
SBCAPE of nearly 5500 J/kg with effective shear of 45 kts. With such
great instability and steep lapse rates, the main concern will be
large to very large hail up to 2-3 inches - especially within
supercells. Damaging winds, flash flooding, and even an isolated
tornado will be possible with LCLs under 1km thanks to the increased
moisture. The tornado threat looks to be focused towards the
northern/northeastern Permian Basin where the cold front may provide
the added low level shear. This storm activity looks to move out of
the area to the east by 02-03z.

Late this evening as the cold front begins to push southward,
additional thunderstorms may develop overnight though this activity
looks to remain sub-severe. As this front pushes southward, lower
dewpoints are advected in, restricting any storm chances for
tomorrow to along and south of the Highway 90 corridor.

As for temperatures, the front will bring in cooler air, knocking
tomorrow's high temperatures into the upper 70s and low 80s for
most.

-Munyan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Friday, the upper trough will be swinging through the Great Lakes
region, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under cool
northwest flow aloft.  At the surface, post-frontal winds will veer
to easterly before another shot of cold air backdoors the region
Friday night/Saturday.  Highs Saturday will be the nadir for this
forecast as temperatures top out 6-8F below normal, w/most locations
enjoying the lower 70s.  A few showers will be possible extreme
south through Saturday evening invof the old frontal boundary.
Otherwise, extended grids will remain dry in a considerably drier
post-frontal airmass.

Temperatures will slowly recover into next week under weak ridging,
which will transition to zonal w/the approach of the next trough. By
next Wednesday, highs should be back to a respectable 6-8F above
normal as most locations are back in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Stiff southerly winds are still present remnant from this
morning's low level jet. Scattered thunderstorms are possible once
again this afternoon, with the highest confidence for impacts
found at FST and MAF. Will amend TAFs as necessary for
gusty/erratic winds and incoming TSRA. A cold front moving
through late this evening will spur a wind shift to the north-
northeast. Texas terminals may see CIGs fall to MVFR behind the
front early tomorrow morning, have kept TAFs VFR but this may be
adjusted in future updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               63  79  56  79 /  70  10   0   0
Carlsbad                 59  81  56  78 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   69  81  63  79 /  40  30  20  10
Fort Stockton            64  79  57  78 /  40  30  10  10
Guadalupe Pass           57  74  54  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    57  78  53  76 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                    59  77  51  75 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     64  79  57  78 /  50  10   0   0
Odessa                   64  79  58  79 /  40  10   0   0
Wink                     64  83  56  81 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...16

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
249 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-052000-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
249 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023 /149 PM MDT Wed Oct 4 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast New Mexico,
southwest Texas and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 PM CDT for much of
West Texas.  Damaging winds to 75 mph and hail to 3 inches are
possible.  A tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

There is a medium risk of severe storms this afternoon and evening,
mainly across the Western Low Rolling Plains, Permian Basin, and
Stockton Plateau.  Any severe storms that do develop may be
accompanied by damaging winds, large hail, and an isolated tornado.
Heavy rainfall may also result in flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

44

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
242 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0228 PM     Hail             1 W Fort Stockton       30.89N 102.90W
10/04/2023  E1.00 inch       Pecos              TX   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency manager reports quarter size hail
            at Spur 194 west of Fort Stockton.

0233 PM     Hail             1 S Fort Stockton       30.88N 102.89W
10/04/2023  M1.25 inch       Pecos              TX   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency manager reports half dollar size
            hail and localized flash flooding on the
            south side of Fort Stockton.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
259 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     Hail             1 S Fort Stockton       30.88N 102.89W
10/04/2023  E1.75 inch       Pecos              TX   Emergency Mngr

            Emergency manager reports golf ball size
            hail at Spur 194 west of Fort Stockton. This
            is with a second thunderstorm.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
320 PM CDT Wed Oct 4 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     Hail             3 NNW Belding           30.83N 103.05W
10/04/2023  E1.25 inch       Pecos              TX   Public

            Belding mesonet land owner reports half
            dollar size hail at the mesonet.

&&