Tornado Warning 45, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
139 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

We are continuing to monitor the ongoing severe weather situation
across the forecast area. Strong to severe storms remain likely
across portions of the CWA through around 9-10pm tonight.

An upper low and storm system will move across the Midwest region
today, with a warm front lifting northeastward across the CWA today,
and a cold front sweeping eastward across the CWA through this
evening. In a moisture-rich environment (dewpoints in the 60s, PWATs
up to 1.5), severe weather parameters support development of severe
thunderstorms capable of producing violent tornadoes: SRH values 0-
3km 400+, 0-1km 300+; CAPE values 1000+ J/kg; bulk shear values 60-
70 kt.

Storms are moving along a line oriented NE-SW, moving into central
portions of the state as of early this afternoon. Another line is
developing over eastern OK/NE TX. The best chances for violent
tornadoes (EF2+) are in eastern portions of the state, but cannot be
ruled out elsewhere. Additional hazards include large hail and
damaging winds. Storms are expected to move east of the forecast
area by later this evening, around 9-10pm.

Dry conditions are forecast by late tonight through early Sunday.
Rain chances return Sunday when a warm front begins to lift
northward across the south-central U.S. returning warmer air and
moisture to the region.

Temps today will top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s, cooling
behind tonights cold front, with lows dropping to the lower 40s to
lower 50s tonight. Temps tomorrow will top out in the upper 50s to
mid 70s. Highs Sunday will return to the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 138 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING:

The beginning of the long-term forecast discussion will begin with
active weather north of a warm front that will bring the opportunity
of showers and thunderstorms to the Natural State overnight Sunday
into Monday morning.

MONDAY:

An area of sfc low pressure intensifies out across the Rocky
Mountain region of the CONUS. Expect clearing conditions w/ upper
lvl ridging across the southeastern region of the CONUS and a trof
beginning to dig significantly across the Western region of the
CONUS. Monday afternoon looks to be our greatest opportunity at rain-
free weather.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY/FRIDAY:

An upper lvl closed low approaches the Central Plains region of the
CONUS. In tandem w/ a lifting warm front that will travel well north
of the Natural State into northern Missouri/southern Iowa by late in
the day on Tuesday. Tuesday will likely see an increase of rain and
thunderstorm activity. This will create a warm sector with abundant
moisture and parameter space that could be conducive for severe
weather. Into the day on Wednesday, a north-south oriented cold
front will sweep across the state from west to east and provide a
continued chance for showers and thunderstorms. Looking late next
week, into Thursday and Friday, the cold front stalls out along the
Gulf Coast region of the CONUS and becomes a stationary front. Rain
and isolated thunderstorm chances will continue for the southern
half of the Natural State for the remainder of the workweek.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     52  65  41  70 /  20   0   0   0
Camden AR         51  75  46  75 /  50   0   0  30
Harrison AR       45  59  39  69 /   0   0   0  10
Hot Springs AR    51  70  44  73 /  10   0   0  30
Little Rock   AR  53  71  45  74 /  30   0   0  20
Monticello AR     57  77  48  76 /  50   0   0  20
Mount Ida AR      51  69  42  72 /  10   0   0  30
Mountain Home AR  46  61  38  70 /  10   0   0   0
Newport AR        51  63  42  68 /  30   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     53  73  46  74 /  50   0   0  20
Russellville AR   50  67  42  72 /   0   0   0  20
Searcy AR         49  68  41  70 /  30   0   0  10
Stuttgart AR      53  69  45  71 /  50   0   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-
025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130-
137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-
341.

&&

SHORT TERM...71
LONG TERM....234
AVIATION...71

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
143 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-011000-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
143 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to pose a threat to
much of the forecast area through late this evening. Hazards
include damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

After a brief lull on Saturday, chances for showers and isolated
thunderstorms will return late Sunday, with a more widespread heavy
rain event unfolding Tuesday through Thursday. The forecast calls
for two to more than four inches of rain, and the heaviest amounts
should be over southern Arkansas. This is concerning given that some
rivers are already elevated, and soil moisture is well above average
and cannot hold much additional water. There is also a potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter Activation May Be Needed Today.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

71/234

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