Tornado Warning 39, NWS Little Rock, AR

674 
WWUS54 KLZK 311839
SVSLZK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
139 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

ARC019-051-059-097-109-311900-
/O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0039.000000T0000Z-230331T1900Z/
Clark AR-Pike AR-Garland AR-Montgomery AR-Hot Spring AR-
139 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN CLARK...NORTHEASTERN PIKE...SOUTHWESTERN GARLAND...
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY AND WEST CENTRAL HOT SPRING COUNTIES...
    
At 139 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Glenwood, or 18 miles south of Mount Ida, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Glenwood...                       Amity...
Meyers...                         Lofton...
Bismarck...                       Point Cedar...
Salem in Pike County...           Bonnerdale...
Welsh...                          Rosboro...
Pearcy...                         

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3420 9357 3435 9367 3452 9330 3430 9312
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 242DEG 49KT 3431 9351 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN

$$

233

902 
WWUS54 KLZK 311854
SVSLZK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
154 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

ARC019-051-059-097-109-311903-
/O.EXP.KLZK.TO.W.0039.000000T0000Z-230331T1900Z/
Clark AR-Pike AR-Garland AR-Montgomery AR-Hot Spring AR-
154 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CLARK...NORTHEASTERN PIKE...
SOUTHWESTERN GARLAND...SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY AND WEST CENTRAL HOT
SPRING COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 200 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail
and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for central,
western and southwestern Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3420 9357 3435 9367 3452 9330 3430 9312
TIME...MOT...LOC 1853Z 242DEG 49KT 3438 9334 

$$

233

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1214 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Updated to include the 18Z aviation discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night )
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Main focus of the short term period remains the threat for severe
weather across the state today, mainly from early this afternoon
into the evening hours.

Early morning sfc observations have shown an increase in
low level moisture, especially across S/SW Arkansas where
dewpoints are approaching the mid 60s F. Additionally, little in
the way of cooling took place overnight with temperatures in the
60s/70s F holding across much of the state. KLZK VWP data shows a
strengthening LLJ in place with persistent S-SW winds above 50-60
kts.

Some isolated to scattered showers/storms will be possible across
the area this morning in response to the strengthening LLJ and
some passing mid-level disturbances in the SW flow aloft. By
late morning there could be a break in precip, srly winds however
will continue to increase.

Primary H500 storm system will begin intensification across the
Central Plains today with a 100+ kt jet streak expected to develop
just NW of the state at the base of the accompanying trough. As
the sfc low lifts northeastward and the trailing dryline and cold
front move into the state, thunderstorms are expected to develop.

Data continues to suggest that initial development will be in the
form of isolated, supercell thunderstorms oriented N-S. CAM
guidance depicts this activity developing by 18z in a corridor
from KHRO to KMWT. From there, storm mode should remain
supercellular for a few hours as activity shifts eastward across
the state. An eventual transition to a line of storms is
expected, but may not take place until activity reaches the MS
River around 00z-02z.

There are several severe weather parameters in place that give us
cause for concern, particularly across the northeast quarter of
the state. Storms that develop and move into these areas (outlined
by the DY1 MOD risk) will have the potential to produce damaging
winds and tornadoes, some strong tornadoes are possible as well.

Afternoon school dismissal could be impacted by these storms as
they move eastward across parts of the state. Storm motion will
be very fast, 50-60 kts toward the E/NE. Be prepared for this
possibility before storms develop.

The threat should end fairly efficiently from west to east as the
cold front progresses eastward. Dry conditions are expected for
Saturday into Saturday night, but more rain is expected by Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 306 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

The period will begin with high pressure exiting toward the
southeast United States Sunday. Warm air advection will kick in, and
clouds will increase. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will be noted
Sunday night.

Precipitation will become more spotty or temporarily end
Monday/Monday night. By the time Tuesday rolls around, a big storm
system will begin intensifying in the central Plains. A deep
southerly flow will be in place, and the warmest temperatures of the
week will be realized with afternoon readings in the upper 70s to
upper 80s. It will also be windy.

The Plains system will head toward the upper Midwest, and will drag
a cold front into Arkansas Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Another
round of thunderstorms is expected, and some storms could be severe.
The northward track of the system will work against a severe weather
outbreak.

The front will stall to the south, with a large area of high
pressure and cooler/more seasonable air trying to settle over the
region from the north. A southwest flow aloft will drive moisture
over the front and into Arkansas, and this will lead to areas of
heavy rain.

As of now, two to more than four inch totals are projected through
the end of the period, with the highest amounts over the southern
counties. This is concerning given a nearly saturated soil and
elevated rivers.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Severe storms will move across the forecast area through the
evening hours. Violent tornadoes are possible for portions of
eastern AR. A wind advisory is issued for the forecast area as
well, with southerly wind speeds sustained at 15-25 mph and
gusting 35-45 mph. Wind direction will shift out of the NW
overnight. Wind shear conditions are also forecast for most
location across the state.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     51  64  40  69 /  30   0   0   0
Camden AR         52  75  46  74 /  20   0   0  20
Harrison AR       43  59  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hot Springs AR    51  71  43  73 /  10   0   0  20
Little Rock   AR  54  71  44  74 /  20   0   0  10
Monticello AR     57  76  46  73 /  40   0   0  20
Mount Ida AR      51  69  42  73 /   0   0   0  20
Mountain Home AR  45  60  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
Newport AR        51  62  41  68 /  30   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     54  73  45  73 /  30   0   0  10
Russellville AR   49  67  41  73 /   0   0   0  10
Searcy AR         48  68  39  71 /  20   0   0  10
Stuttgart AR      53  69  45  71 /  30   0   0  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ004>008-014>017-024-
025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-130-
137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-
341.

&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....46
AVIATION...71

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
408 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-011000-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
408 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Gusty southerly winds will be noted today, with wind speeds of 20
to 30 mph and gusts above 40 mph at times. Strong to severe
thunderstorms will become likely, especially across northern into
eastern Arkansas in the afternoon and early evening hours. Where
severe weather occurs, the main concerns will be damaging winds
and tornadoes, some large hail is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

After a brief lull on Saturday, chances for showers and isolated
thunderstorms will return late Sunday, with a more widespread heavy
rain event unfolding Tuesday through Thursday. The forecast calls
for two to more than four inches of rain, and the heaviest amounts
should be over southern Arkansas. This is concerning given that some
rivers are already elevated, and soil moisture is well above average
and cannot hold much additional water. There is also a potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter Activation May Be Needed Today.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

67/46

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
948 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

ARZ053-054-062-311515-
Hot Spring AR-Clark AR-Dallas AR-
948 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Clark,
northwestern Dallas and south central Hot Spring Counties through
1015 AM CDT...

At 948 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gum Springs in Clark County, or 7 miles southwest of Arkadelphia,
moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Arkadelphia...                    Caddo Valley...
Gum Springs in Clark County...    Richwoods...
Donaldson...                      Friendship...
Lower Lake Recreation Area...     Curtis...
Hollywood...                      Joan...
Griffithtown...                   Midway in Hot Spring County...
Dalark...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3395 9319 3408 9330 3433 9296 3409 9272
TIME...MOT...LOC 1448Z 229DEG 62KT 3407 9319

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

71

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1031 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

ARZ112-121-221-222-311600-
Pope County Higher Elevations AR-Newton County Higher Elevations AR-
Johnson County Higher Elevations AR-Southern Johnson County AR-
1031 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Newton and
northern Johnson Counties through 1100 AM CDT...

At 1031 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Woodland, or 12 miles north of Clarksville, moving
northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dillen...                         Woodland...
Devils Knob...                    Walnut...
Bertha...                         Rosetta...
Catalpa...                        Fort Douglas...
Crossroad...                      Fallsville...
Swain...                          Haw Creek Falls Campground...
Gum Springs in Newton County...   Oark...
Nail...                           Wolf Pen Campground...
Lurton...                         Mineral Springs Recreation Area...
Wayton...                         Salus...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3601 9320 3599 9320 3599 9319 3579 9296
      3551 9353 3565 9367 3577 9354 3577 9352
      3578 9352 3603 9323
TIME...MOT...LOC 1531Z 230DEG 56KT 3563 9353

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

61

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1124 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

ARZ137-140-237-238-240-241-340-311700-
Northern Scott County AR-Yell Excluding Northwest AR-
Polk County Lower Elevations AR-Central and Southern Scott County AR-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations AR-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations AR-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations AR-
1124 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Scott,
northeastern Polk, southwestern Yell and northwestern Montgomery
Counties through NOON CDT...

At 1123 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mena, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mena...                           Cardiff...
Mena Intermountain Airport...     Muddy Creek WMA...
Acorn...                          Board Camp...
Olio...                           Cedar Creek...
Nunley...                         Ink...
Y City...                         Nola...
Needmore...                       Cherry Hill in Polk County...
Harvey...                         Boles...
Parks...                          Union Hill...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3502 9390 3502 9388 3476 9358 3449 9417
      3463 9431
TIME...MOT...LOC 1623Z 229DEG 49KT 3461 9417

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

61

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1225 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     HAIL             1 NNE CLARKRIDGE        36.50N 92.34W
03/31/2023  M1.50 INCH       BAXTER             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1.5 INCH HAIL REPORTED JUST SOUTH OF THE
            MISSOURI STATE LINE ON AR-HIGHWAY 201.

&&

CTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1243 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     HAIL             HARTMAN                 35.43N 93.61W
03/31/2023  E0.25 INCH       JOHNSON            AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PEA SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN HARTMAN, AR.

&&

CTP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
128 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     PEARCY                  34.43N 93.29W
03/31/2023                   GARLAND            AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&