Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS St. Louis, MO

205 
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SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
641 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

ILC005-027-119-163-010015-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-230401T0015Z/
Clinton IL-Bond IL-Madison IL-St. Clair IL-
641 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CLINTON AND BOND COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...MADISON AND NORTHERN ST. CLAIR COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN
ILLINOIS...

At 641 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Fairview
Heights, moving northeast at 80 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters reported in Belleville.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect damage 
         to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles.

This severe storm will be near...
  Lebanon around 645 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this severe thunderstorm include Glen
Carbon, Troy, Maryville, St. Jacob, Marine, Highland, Alhambra,
Pocahontas, Greenville, Sorento, Reno and Woburn.

This also includes Horseshoe Lake State Park.
 
This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Illinois between exits 21 and 52.
 Interstate 55 in Illinois between exits 23 and 37.
 Interstate 64 in Illinois between exits 9 and 19.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for southwestern
Illinois. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
south central and southwestern Illinois.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3866 8960 3843 9014 3867 9018 3900 8984
      3900 8959 3902 8959 3903 8958 3903 8925
      3900 8925 3899 8926 3879 8926
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 226DEG 67KT 3859 8997 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

Glass

223 
WWUS53 KLSX 312353
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
653 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

ILC005-027-119-163-010015-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-230401T0015Z/
Clinton IL-Bond IL-Madison IL-St. Clair IL-
653 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CLINTON AND BOND COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EASTERN MADISON AND NORTHERN ST. CLAIR COUNTIES IN
SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...

At 652 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over St. Jacob, 
moving northeast at 80 mph. Another sevee storm was located near 
Highland moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect damage 
         to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles.

This severe storm will be near...
  Highland and Jamestown around 700 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this severe thunderstorm include
Pocahontas, Greenville, Reno, Mulberry Grove and Woburn.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Illinois between exits 21 and 52.
 Interstate 55 in Illinois between exits 23 and 37.
 Interstate 64 in Illinois between exits 9 and 19.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for southwestern
Illinois. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
south central and southwestern Illinois.

This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3866 8960 3843 9014 3866 9006 3900 8980
      3900 8959 3902 8959 3903 8958 3903 8925
      3900 8925 3899 8926 3879 8926
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 233DEG 68KT 3872 8975 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

Glass

900 
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SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
659 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

ILC005-027-119-163-010015-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-230401T0015Z/
Clinton IL-Bond IL-Madison IL-St. Clair IL-
659 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CLINTON AND BOND COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...SOUTHEASTERN MADISON AND NORTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTIES
IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...

At 658 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Lebanon, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters repored ping pong ball size hail 
         in O'fallon.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect damage 
         to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles.

This severe storm will be near...
  St. Jacob around 705 PM CDT.
  Marine around 710 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this severe thunderstorm include
Highland, Jamestown, Pocahontas, Greenville, Reno, Woburn and
Mulberry Grove.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Illinois between exits 21 and 52.
 Interstate 64 in Illinois between exits 14 and 19.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for south central
and southwestern Illinois.

This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3853 8990 3861 8998 3894 8970 3900 8959
      3902 8959 3903 8958 3903 8925 3900 8925
      3899 8926 3879 8926 3866 8960
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 228DEG 49KT 3864 8984 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.50 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

Glass

053 
WWUS53 KLSX 010007
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
707 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

ILC163-010017-
/O.CAN.KLSX.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-230401T0015Z/
St. Clair IL-
707 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for south central
and southwestern Illinois.

LAT...LON 3866 8965 3867 8986 3887 8961 3896 8953
      3898 8950 3902 8950 3903 8925 3900 8925
      3899 8926 3879 8926 3866 8960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 232DEG 68KT 3875 8966 

$$

ILC005-027-119-010015-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-230401T0015Z/
Clinton IL-Bond IL-Madison IL-
707 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CLINTON...BOND COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS
AND SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...

At 707 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Highland,
moving northeast at 80 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

This severe storm will be near...
  Jamestown around 710 PM CDT.
  Pocahontas and Beaver Creek around 715 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this severe thunderstorm include
Greenville, Reno, Mulberry Grove and Woburn.

This includes Interstate 70 in Illinois between exits 30 and 52.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for south central
and southwestern Illinois.

This storm is producing large hail. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3866 8965 3867 8986 3887 8961 3896 8953
      3898 8950 3902 8950 3903 8925 3900 8925
      3899 8926 3879 8926 3866 8960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 232DEG 68KT 3875 8966 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

Glass

167 
WWUS53 KLSX 010011
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
711 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

ILC005-027-119-010021-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-230401T0015Z/
Clinton IL-Bond IL-Madison IL-
711 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CLINTON...BOND
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTIES
IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS WILL EXPIRE AT 715 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for south central
and southwestern Illinois.

LAT...LON 3866 8965 3867 8986 3887 8961 3896 8953
      3898 8950 3902 8950 3903 8925 3900 8925
      3899 8926 3879 8926 3866 8960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 233DEG 68KT 3879 8960 

$$

Glass

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
234 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Saturday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

As of 2PM, we were beginning to see more in the way of surface
based instability spreading across the entire forecast area as the
best moisture just ahead of the front is pushing into our area.
With a very strong wind field, especially aloft, we continue to
expect severe thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front as it
moves east this afternoon and evening. All severe hazards will be
possible, including large hail. However, the greatest threats will
likely be from damaging winds and tornadoes. Storms will be fast
moving and exit the area early this evening.

Winds shift to the southwest behind the initial front, with a
secondary front (with actual cold air behind it) bringing a shift
to westerly winds during the overnight. This secondary front
brings the cold advection which will aid in low level mixing and
transporting the higher winds from aloft down toward the surface
in the form of strong wind gusts. The Wind Advisory continues into
midday Saturday across the northern half of the area where the
potential for gusts over 45 MPH is highest. It will turn much
colder as well, especially considering the widespread 70+
temperatures we've seen today. Tomorrow will top out only in the
50s. Winds decrease in the second half of the day as the low
pressure system continues to pull away to the east. Temperatures
fall off into the 30s tonight.

Kimble

.LONG TERM...  (Sunday through Next Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

The colder conditions don't last long. We quickly transition
toward upper level ridging by early next week. Surface high
pressure shifting to the east will allow a southerly low level
flow to return on Sunday with the temperature warming back into
the 60s to low 70s.

Another trough digs into the western US on Monday, with its
primary trough axis moving out into the Plains on Tuesday. The
southerly flow ahead of the trough will reintroduce moisture out
into the Plains and set the stage for another round of strong to
severe thunderstorms. How exactly this pans out is still
uncertain, but there's been better agreement on the timing with
the latest model runs than there has been in prior days. The
threat for our area seems centered on late Tuesday into Tuesday
night. There's significant instability and shear available, with
supercells the likely storm mode and all severe weather types
possible. One concern is the timing of the trough with the best
forcing for storms coming through overnight when surface based
instability may be harder to come by.

Showers and storms may begin as early as Monday as a warm front
sets up across our area, so the best chance of showers and storms
will be along and north of the front in the northern half of the
forecast area. Storms in this environment would be elevated, and
any severe weather threat should be limited to hail. It's Tuesday
when the best chance of surface based instability across the
entire are exists, and thus the greatest chance of severe weather.
This is consistent with the SPC Day 5 outlook.

NBM hangs on to POP on Wednesday, but we believe with the growing
consensus on timing that the shower and thunderstorm threat will
be ending quickly early Wednesday mornith the threat being during the night, surface based
instability may be harder to come by during the period of stronger
forcing. So while all severe weather threats are possible, the
threat for our area may lean more toward large hail and perhaps
some damaging wind gusts if storms are no longer surface based
when they arrive.ing. Future runs of the NBM will likely pull
back on POP Wednesday as our area will largely be behind a cold
front at that point. Temperatures ahead of the front on Tuesday
are likely to soar into the 80s which contributes to the greater
instability potential. Behind the front we drop down into the 50s
again through Thursday.

Kimble

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Primary concern for TAFs today is timing and impact of
thunderstorms across the area. Multiple rounds of fast moving thunderstorms
are possible, which makes narrowing down timing much more
difficult. TEMPO was the best way to handle it as conditions would
be brief when they occur. Severe storms are possible with large
hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes all possible. The most
organized timing of the storms will be with a cold front moving in
from the west this evening and that's when much of the TEMPO
groups for TS is centered around. Winds will be strong ahead of
and behind the front, with the strongest gusts likely in
thunderstorms as well as behind the front tonight into tomorrow
morning when 40KT or higher gusts are possible. An area of lower
ceilings (MVFR) is possible tomorrow morning mainly in the north
affecting Quincy but could reach as far south as St Louis.

Kimble

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Jefferson MO-
     Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
     Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Saint Charles MO-
     Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for Crawford MO-Iron MO-
     Madison MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve
     MO-Washington MO.

IL...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown
     IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
     Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for Randolph IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service St Louis MO
413 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-011200-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
413 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected across most of the area today...mainly
this afternoon and evening. Some of the thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening may be severe with damaging winds, large hail, and
possible tornadoes.

Winds this afternoon will gust as high as 50 mph at times. Please see
the Wind Advisory for more information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Winds on Saturday will continue to gust up to 50 mph at
times...mainly along and north of the Missouri River, as well as
along and north of Interstate 64 in Illinois. Please see the Wind
Advisory for more information.

There is a chance of thunderstorms across portions of the area again
Sunday night through Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and evening.

Carney

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
541 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     HAIL             1 SW LATTY              37.97N 90.90W
03/31/2023  E0.88 INCH       WASHINGTON         MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MMG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
602 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0544 PM     HAIL             1 S KAMPSVILLE          39.30N 90.63W
03/31/2023  E0.70 INCH       CALHOUN            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

MAPLES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
610 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NNE ASHLAND           38.82N 92.22W
03/31/2023  M59 MPH          BOONE              MO   ASOS

            NON-THUNDERSTORM GUST FROM THE ASOS AT
            COLUMBIA REGIONAL AIRPORT.

&&

MAPLES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
612 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 N ORCHARD FARMS       38.93N 90.43W
03/31/2023  M63 MPH          ST. CHARLES        MO   ASOS

            NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST FROM SMART FIELD
            ASOS.

&&

MAPLES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
621 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     HAIL             POTOSI                  37.94N 90.78W
03/31/2023  E0.70 INCH       WASHINGTON         MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            RELAYED REPORT.

&&

MAPLES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
623 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             ELSBERRY                39.17N 90.79W
03/31/2023  E0.50 INCH       LINCOLN            MO   PUBLIC

&&

MMG