Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS St. Louis, MO

932 
WWUS53 KLSX 312156
SVSLSX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service St Louis MO
456 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

ILC013-149-MOC163-312215-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-230331T2215Z/
Calhoun IL-Pike IL-Pike MO-
456 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...
SOUTHEASTERN PIKE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN PIKE
COUNTIES IN NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI...

At 456 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Louisiana,
moving northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Atlas and Clarksville around 500 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this severe thunderstorm include
Pleasant Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for southwestern
and west central Illinois...and northeastern and east central
Missouri.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3963 9097 3942 9062 3934 9062 3922 9072
      3923 9118 3918 9119 3915 9130 3929 9129
      3941 9119 3939 9110
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 240DEG 63KT 3939 9102 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Elmore

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
234 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Saturday Night)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

As of 2PM, we were beginning to see more in the way of surface
based instability spreading across the entire forecast area as the
best moisture just ahead of the front is pushing into our area.
With a very strong wind field, especially aloft, we continue to
expect severe thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front as it
moves east this afternoon and evening. All severe hazards will be
possible, including large hail. However, the greatest threats will
likely be from damaging winds and tornadoes. Storms will be fast
moving and exit the area early this evening.

Winds shift to the southwest behind the initial front, with a
secondary front (with actual cold air behind it) bringing a shift
to westerly winds during the overnight. This secondary front
brings the cold advection which will aid in low level mixing and
transporting the higher winds from aloft down toward the surface
in the form of strong wind gusts. The Wind Advisory continues into
midday Saturday across the northern half of the area where the
potential for gusts over 45 MPH is highest. It will turn much
colder as well, especially considering the widespread 70+
temperatures we've seen today. Tomorrow will top out only in the
50s. Winds decrease in the second half of the day as the low
pressure system continues to pull away to the east. Temperatures
fall off into the 30s tonight.

Kimble

.LONG TERM...  (Sunday through Next Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

The colder conditions don't last long. We quickly transition
toward upper level ridging by early next week. Surface high
pressure shifting to the east will allow a southerly low level
flow to return on Sunday with the temperature warming back into
the 60s to low 70s.

Another trough digs into the western US on Monday, with its
primary trough axis moving out into the Plains on Tuesday. The
southerly flow ahead of the trough will reintroduce moisture out
into the Plains and set the stage for another round of strong to
severe thunderstorms. How exactly this pans out is still
uncertain, but there's been better agreement on the timing with
the latest model runs than there has been in prior days. The
threat for our area seems centered on late Tuesday into Tuesday
night. There's significant instability and shear available, with
supercells the likely storm mode and all severe weather types
possible. One concern is the timing of the trough with the best
forcing for storms coming through overnight when surface based
instability may be harder to come by.

Showers and storms may begin as early as Monday as a warm front
sets up across our area, so the best chance of showers and storms
will be along and north of the front in the northern half of the
forecast area. Storms in this environment would be elevated, and
any severe weather threat should be limited to hail. It's Tuesday
when the best chance of surface based instability across the
entire are exists, and thus the greatest chance of severe weather.
This is consistent with the SPC Day 5 outlook.

NBM hangs on to POP on Wednesday, but we believe with the growing
consensus on timing that the shower and thunderstorm threat will
be ending quickly early Wednesday mornith the threat being during the night, surface based
instability may be harder to come by during the period of stronger
forcing. So while all severe weather threats are possible, the
threat for our area may lean more toward large hail and perhaps
some damaging wind gusts if storms are no longer surface based
when they arrive.ing. Future runs of the NBM will likely pull
back on POP Wednesday as our area will largely be behind a cold
front at that point. Temperatures ahead of the front on Tuesday
are likely to soar into the 80s which contributes to the greater
instability potential. Behind the front we drop down into the 50s
again through Thursday.

Kimble

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

Primary concern for TAFs today is timing and impact of
thunderstorms across the area. Multiple rounds of fast moving thunderstorms
are possible, which makes narrowing down timing much more
difficult. TEMPO was the best way to handle it as conditions would
be brief when they occur. Severe storms are possible with large
hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes all possible. The most
organized timing of the storms will be with a cold front moving in
from the west this evening and that's when much of the TEMPO
groups for TS is centered around. Winds will be strong ahead of
and behind the front, with the strongest gusts likely in
thunderstorms as well as behind the front tonight into tomorrow
morning when 40KT or higher gusts are possible. An area of lower
ceilings (MVFR) is possible tomorrow morning mainly in the north
affecting Quincy but could reach as far south as St Louis.

Kimble

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for Audrain MO-Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-Jefferson MO-
     Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
     Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Saint Charles MO-
     Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for Crawford MO-Iron MO-
     Madison MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve
     MO-Washington MO.

IL...Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown
     IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
     Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.

     Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for Randolph IL.

&&

WFO LSX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service St Louis MO
413 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-011200-
Greene IL-Macoupin IL-Montgomery IL-Bond IL-Fayette IL-Clinton IL-
Marion IL-Washington IL-Randolph IL-Adams IL-Brown IL-Pike IL-
Calhoun IL-Jersey IL-Madison IL-Saint Clair IL-Monroe IL-Knox MO-
Lewis MO-Shelby MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Ralls MO-Pike MO-Boone MO-
Audrain MO-Moniteau MO-Cole MO-Osage MO-Callaway MO-Montgomery MO-
Lincoln MO-Gasconade MO-Warren MO-Saint Charles MO-Franklin MO-
Saint Louis MO-Saint Louis City MO-Jefferson MO-Crawford MO-
Washington MO-Saint Francois MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-Iron MO-
Madison MO-Reynolds MO-
413 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern and
central Missouri as well as west central and southwest Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected across most of the area today...mainly
this afternoon and evening. Some of the thunderstorms this afternoon
and evening may be severe with damaging winds, large hail, and
possible tornadoes.

Winds this afternoon will gust as high as 50 mph at times. Please see
the Wind Advisory for more information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Winds on Saturday will continue to gust up to 50 mph at
times...mainly along and north of the Missouri River, as well as
along and north of Interstate 64 in Illinois. Please see the Wind
Advisory for more information.

There is a chance of thunderstorms across portions of the area again
Sunday night through Tuesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and evening.

Carney

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
422 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0416 PM     HAIL             LADDONIA                39.24N 91.64W
03/31/2023  E1.50 INCH       AUDRAIN            MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: PING PONG BALL (1.50
            IN.).

&&

MRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
423 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     HAIL             1 E LADDONIA            39.24N 91.62W
03/31/2023  M1.25 INCH       AUDRAIN            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MAPLES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
425 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0405 PM     HAIL             1 E HANNIBAL            39.71N 91.36W
03/31/2023  E1.75 INCH       MARION             MO   PUBLIC

&&

BRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
427 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             2 ESE COLUMBIA          38.94N 92.30W
03/31/2023  M1.50 INCH       BOONE              MO   PUBLIC

&&

BRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
428 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             LADDONIA                39.24N 91.64W
03/31/2023  U1.75 INCH       AUDRAIN            MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: GOLF BALL (1.75 IN.).

&&

MRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
431 PM CDT FRI MAR 31 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0409 PM     HAIL             2 SW HANNIBAL           39.69N 91.40W
03/31/2023  E2.00 INCH       MARION             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BRC