Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
708 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2023

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.Short Term...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2023

A narrow window of opportunity remains open for thunderstorms late
this afternoon into early evening as a cold front moves into the
area from the northwest. Record high temps this afternoon have
yielded steep lapse rates and some modest instability, however low-
level dry air will limit our ability to generate thunderstorms.

If we do see thunderstorms before roughly 8pm EST, we could have
sufficient DCAPE to support a damaging wind threat, while low
freezing levels and steep mid-level lapse rates could also support a
few hailers. SPC Marginal Risk seems reasonable, especially across
north central Kentucky.

Precip coverage will increase through the night as the front
continues to push south and east across Kentucky. However the
thunderstorm chances and intensity will decrease with the loss of
instability. QPF will run around a half inch, which shouldn't result
in significant flooding but could cause some short-lived nuisance
flooding in low-lying areas. Best chance for ponding or minor
flooding will be along and south of the Western Kentucky and
Bluegrass Parkways, where storms will have the longer residence
time.

Last of the precip should exit the Lake Cumberland area around
daybreak Thursday, with high pressure nosing in from the north. Most
of the day will be dry and markedly cooler, but still solidly above
normal with max temps either side of 60. The front will be hung up
across the Tennessee Valley, and even though isentropic lift will
develop it should be after 0Z Fri by the time that precip shield
starts to lift north into Kentucky.

.Long Term...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM EST Wed Mar 01 2023

...ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION...

Key Messages:

1. Strong non-thunderstorm wind gusts are expected again on Friday
along with a conditional risk of severe weather.

2. Severe potential for Friday, with damaging winds possible

3. Some river flooding may be possible across the area.

Thursday Night:

As the upper wave takes on a negative tilt, the associated sfc low
will deepen as it tracks from northeast Texas to the Missouri
Ozarks. This propagation will result in the stalled boundary across
the Tennessee Valley to lift back north through the Commonwealth
late Thursday night, increasing our rain chances for the overnight
period. At least moderate, perhaps brief heavy rain, will be
possible as strong integrated vapor transport pushes PWAT anomalies
above 250% of normal values. There remains some variation is QPF
amounts, though it appears the axis of highest QPF will be along the
Ohio River from western Kentucky to southwestern Indiana. This
aligns well with the updated Day 2 ERO by WPC. Model soundings are
quite interesting for the overnight period, which do not feature
much in the way of instability, except for maybe a small pocket of
CAPE located above a low level stable layer. Wind profiles do show
quite a bit of veering in the lower levels, which could promote some
rotation within the elevated cells. WAA showers will be pushing
north of the Kentucky Parkways by daybreak on Friday.

Friday:

Full set of hazards are on the table for Friday, including severe,
strong non-thunderstorm wind gusts, and a low-end flood threat. Our
southeastern portion of the region may dry out for a period of time
during Friday morning as we become centered within the warm sector.
However, a robust cold front will be pushing through the region from
late morning to early afternoon. Linear storm mode is expected, with
embedded rotation possible as SRH is expected to be extremely high
due to the proximity of the sfc low. Damaging wind gusts will be the
primary threat, though some brief spin-up tornadoes will be possible
as well. Wind profiles support large looping hodographs in the
lowest 3km, though SBCAPE profiles are relatively weak. Should we
see better destabilization ahead of the front, then severe potential
will dramatically increase.

Aside from any severe threat, non-thunderstorm wind gusts will be in
the order of 45-55+mph as a strengthening LLJ between 60-70kts
passes over the region. A Wind Advisory for Friday is a solid bet,
with the potential for a High Wind Warning on the table as well.
Ensembles are in really good agreement for 6-hr max wind gusts. Wind
gusts of this magnitude will result in scattered power outages and
difficult traveling conditions on east-west roads.

In addition to the strong wind gusts, river flooding is still a
potential for some of the basins, though overall QPF has dropped off
a bit compared to this morning's package, and so river flooding
potential is lowering some. For example, HEFS 10-day river level
probs do have some chance of minor river flooding, though overall
best chance is to remain in action stage. This remains an evolving
situation, so will continue to monitor trends closely.

Weekend:

Drier and cooler weather is anticipated for the weekend as sfc high
pressure builds into the region. We'll likely keep clouds going for
the first half of Saturday as an upper wave passes through, though
we should see increasing sunshine by the Saturday afternoon hours.
Temps for the weekend will be a bit cooler, though still slightly
above normal for this time of year.

Early Next Week:

We start out the new work week dry, though small chances for rain
return to the region by Monday night and into Tuesday. Temperatures
are expected to be the warmest of the long term period on Monday,
with a slight cooling trend again into the middle of next week.

&&

.Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 707 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2023

Main aviation concern is SCT high-based TSRA over the next few
hours. Strong wind gusts and large hail will be possible in the
strongest storms. TSRA expected to gradually weaken by 04z Thursday
with showers mostly sinking south and east of the terminals by 07-
08z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Short Term...RAS
Long Term...CJP
Aviation...EBW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
333 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2023

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-022045-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle-
Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-
Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-
Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown,
Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty,
Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
333 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2023 /233 PM CST Wed Mar 1 2023/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated strong storms will be possible this evening. Brief gusty
winds and small hail would be the main threat with any storms that
develop.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms late Thursday and again on Friday.
Heavy rainfall, an increasing chance of severe storms, and strong
gusty winds are expected. Flash flood and minor river flooding are
also possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed at times today through Friday.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

CJP/RAS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
821 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2023

KYZ034-035-038>040-045>047-020145-
Shelby KY-Mercer KY-Woodford KY-Franklin KY-Spencer KY-Washington KY-
Nelson KY-Anderson KY-
821 PM EST Wed Mar 1 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Spencer, southeastern Shelby, northeastern Nelson, Mercer, Woodford,
Anderson, Washington and southwestern Franklin Counties through 845
PM EST...

At 821 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southeast of Taylorsville, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Shelby, Mercer, Woodford, southwestern Franklin, southeastern
Spencer, Washington, northeastern Nelson and Anderson Counties,
including the following locations... Mackville, Wayside, Booker,
Dugansville, Anderson City, Glensboro, Polin, Farmdale, Johnsonville
and Croakes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Louisville.

&&

LAT...LON 3806 8464 3786 8471 3785 8469 3783 8473
      3779 8470 3777 8471 3776 8469 3773 8470
      3764 8528 3765 8533 3795 8543 3812 8510
      3818 8465 3816 8466 3816 8464 3815 8465
      3812 8463 3812 8465 3811 8463
TIME...MOT...LOC 0121Z 272DEG 43KT 3793 8516

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

EBW

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