River Flood Warning 7, NWS Louisville, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
231 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2023

.Short Term (Now through Friday)...
Issued at 230 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2023

...Slight Risk for Severe Storms This Afternoon...

Key Messages:

* Widespread moderate to heavy rain continues into this evening
  before diminishing from west to east. Flooding issues will linger
  into tonight, and additional isolated flash flooding is possible

* Isolated severe storms possible this afternoon and early evening,
  mainly across south-central Kentucky

Sfc low pressure is now passing northeast over the Lower Wabash
River Valley, with a sfc cold front draped SSW through western
KY/TN/MS. Effective warm front has been reinforced today by
widespread rain and convection across KY, limiting northward
destabilization despite strong low-level moisture advection.

MLCAPE values are approaching 1000 J/kg across western and Middle TN
according to recent SPC mesoanalysis data, where low-level lapse
rates are slightly steeper due to a dry period today with modest
clearing. 0-3 km MLCAPE has increased to 25-50 J/kg in the far
southwestern CWA and is forecast to increase across south-central KY
over the next few hours. Will be watching the northern portion of a
QLCS closely as it pushes across south-central KY. This area has the
best overlap of instability and low-level shear. The line, oriented
SW to NE, has a sufficient line-normal component of the 0-3 km shear
vector (WSW 50 kts) to produce bowing segments, increasing the risk
for mesovortex genesis. Sfc winds are generally veering slightly
immediately ahead of the QLCS from due south, which does reduce ESRH
slightly (around 200-300 m2/s2). But certainly sufficient to cause
concern. Also still have a 45 kt southwesterly LLJ over south-
central KY immediately ahead of the convection. The mid/upper level
trough remains off to the west and will continue to provide broad
lift and cooling temperatures aloft.

Bottom line...Main risk for severe weather is this afternoon across
south-central Kentucky. Based on synoptic features and forcing
described above, showers will linger east of I-65 past sunset.
However, after 7 PM EST, instability should be pretty minimal and
insufficient to sustain severe convection. Scattered storms will
remain possible along the cold front into the evening hours. Eastern
areas such as the Bluegrass Region and Lake Cumberland could get
rumbles of thunder into late evening with the instability elevated
in nature after 00z.

Showers diminish in the far eastern CWA by late tonight, with some
flooding issues possibly lingering overnight. Colder air pours into
the region overnight in the wake of the cold front. Temperatures
drop into the low to mid 30s just prior to daybreak. May have to
keep an eye on black ice potential on bridges and overpasses. It
will be fairly breezy overnight, but any lingering moisture on
elevated surfaces could freeze into a few slick spots. Temperatures
will be fairly steady in the low to mid 30s through mid to late
morning given CAA and overcast low clouds. Temperatures will
struggle back into the mid/upper 30s for afternoon highs. Cannot
rule out a few isolated flurries on Friday given strong CAA and
lingering low-level moisture. But the moisture layer is awfully thin
so not expecting much.

.Long Term (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 200 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2023

Friday Night - Monday Night...

Looking for a dry and cool first part of the weekend as Canadian
high pressure settles over the region, beneath zonal flow aloft.
Surface high should be centered near our region by sunrise Saturday
with excellent radiational cooling conditions for Friday
night/Saturday morning. Looking for the coldest lows of the long
term with most spots dipping to the 20 to 25 degree range. The
coldest and sheltered valleys will likely dip into the upper teens.
Saturday high temperatures should be at or just below normal in the
45 to 50 degree range.

Surface high shifts off to the mid Atlantic by Saturday night into
Sunday, and we'll see a return of S/SW low level flow between that
feature and a surface low moving into the Great Lakes. Saturday
night lows, will be milder and into the 30s, and then temps surge
above normal for highs Sunday. Sunday looks like a good day to
overachieve on temperatures with gusty/mixy SW winds and mostly
clear skies. Have most values in the 55 to 60 degree range, but
expect some spots could reach the lower 60s.

A weak, but seemingly dry, cold front should pass through on Monday,
which will drop temps a bit from Thursday. However, still looking
for above average temps. Could see a pretty good gradient from north
to south with low 50s across southern IN, to around 60 across
southern KY.

Tuesday - Thursday...

The zonal flow aloft will remain over our region through mid week,
with ridging over the Gulf of Mexico, and cutoff energy off the SW
CONUS. A generally W-E oriented baroclinic zone is expected to set
up somewhere near our region, with waves of precipitation ejecting
through the fast zonal flow over our area. This will occur as the SW
CONUS cutoff energy begins to eject out across the southern CONUS.
Will have to watch trends with these individual waves as this type
of pattern can tend to produce heavy rainfall across the region.
Given the rain we are getting now, we could be a little more
susceptible to some flooding/river flooding concerns if we do get
some good soaking rains. Depending on surface low tracks/strength,
we could also have a strong storm threat at times under this
scenario. Confidence will remain low on any individual wave or time
period through mid week, but confidence is higher in the
general pattern and antecedent conditions having potential.

Temperatures during this time will stay pretty mild (assuming we
stay on the warm side of the quasi-stationary boundary). Right now
we have values in the 60 and 70s for highs, with generally small
overnight diurnal swings.

&&

.Aviation (18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1241 PM EST Thu Feb 16 2023

IMPACTS:

* Showers and storms this afternoon, some of which could be strong

* MVFR, and brief IFR, ceilings will persist through much of this
  TAF period

DISCUSSION:

Widespread convection continues across much of KY and far southern
IN this afternoon. Some strong storms remain possible this
afternoon, especially across southern KY near BWG. Showers and
storms will gradually begin to diminish from west to east late this
afternoon through the evening hours. Rain could linger at LEX into
late tonight.

Southerly winds this afternoon could occasionally gust over 20 kts,
but widespread rain and clouds are limiting mixing and the gusty
potential. Winds veer northwesterly after 00z Friday and become
gusty, even with MVFR stratus and only shallow mixing. The low
clouds will linger through the end of the period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Flood Watch until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Friday for KYZ023>043-
     045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...Flood Watch until 1 AM EST Friday for INZ079-090>092.

&&

Short Term........EBW
Long Term.........BJS
Aviation..........EBW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
347 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2023

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053-061-062-070>072-
170900-
Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison-
Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt-
Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-
Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Butler-
Edmonson-Logan-Warren-Simpson-
Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper,
English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport,
Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield,
Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford,
Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana,
Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle,
Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester,
Hodgenville, Morgantown, Brownsville, Russellville, Bowling Green,
Franklin, and Providence
347 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2023 /247 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Strong to severe storms will continue to be possible across the
region today ahead of a strong cold front. All severe hazards are
possible, with damaging winds posing the greatest threat. All
interests in the outlook area should continue to monitor the latest
forecasts.

Besides the thunderstorms chances, non-thunderstorm wind gusts will
be between 30-40 mph today, with locally higher gusts possible.
Large profile vehicles may have difficult driving conditions on
east- west roads, and isolated power outages may be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Storms late tonight will generally travel southwest to northeast
around 60 mph.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity
can be erratic and constantly evolving.  Please use this with caution
and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

KYZ054>057-063>067-073>078-081-082-170900-
Marion-Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln-Allen-
Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
Including the cities of Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond,
Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford,
Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown,
Burkesville, and Albany
347 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2023 /247 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2023/

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Indiana and Central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Strong to severe storms will continue to be possible across the
region today ahead of a strong cold front. All severe hazards are
possible, with damaging winds posing the greatest threat. All
interests in the outlook area should continue to monitor the latest
forecasts.

Besides the thunderstorms chances, non-thunderstorm wind gusts will
be between 30-40 mph today, with locally higher gusts possible.
Large profile vehicles may have difficult driving conditions on
east- west roads, and isolated power outages may be possible.

A Flood Watch is in effect for this area, which could see repeating
rounds of thunderstorms throughout today, resulting in rainfall
amounts of 2 to 3+ inches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Storms late tonight will generally travel southwest to northeast
around 60 mph.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity
can be erratic and constantly evolving.  Please use this with caution
and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

CJP/BTN

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