Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1237 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023

Current MCS moving through the area. Yes, it is moving west and
developing NW which is another unusual thing, but then again what
parameters have been normal lately. The outflow boundary is firing
new cells this morning where it meets the sfc trough boundary north
of BTR. Stability should begin to increase over this area as the
morning progresses though so a general weakening trend should begin
shortly. New activity should begin to fire by mid to late this
morning back over the gulf and reach inland again as the day moves
forward. This is due to the almost stalled nature of the sfc trough.
Then later in the day another area of activity will get started
farther NW along the boundary along where the current stuff if
ongoing. This will likely be helped along by outflow boundaries
again interacting with this sfc trough axis. All of this new
activity should do much of the same as yesterday's has done with
heavy rainfall and severe storms. The training issue with heavy rain
will remain a real threat today due to the slow movement of the
trough axis. The flood watch will remain where it is but will be
extended through 10pm since the storms that develop during the late
afternoon look to continue well into the evening hours. Could have
probably dropped Jackson and even Harrison Counties, but there are
some discrepancies in model agreement this morning for the
mesoscale production(CAMS and synoptic) of the new storms
developing. This may be due to the dew pt temps not falling out of
the 70s until one gets east and NE of Pensacola. But areas east
of where these new storms develop today, could possibly be
whittled away from the rest. By Wed morning the sfc trough should
have moved to the coast and the same style of convective bursts
look to continue near the coast and over the near shore waters.
But the majority of land areas could be almost rain free with
somewhat drier air. Heat warnings will likely go away for at least
several days. But advisory may continue for a portion of the
area, if those areas remain in high dew pt numbers and little
cloudy cover.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023

The stalled sfc trough will stay along the coast Wed night. Thursday
will find this sfc trough moving back to the north and you guessed
it, this could bring these storms back to the area starting over
southshore areas Thu then area wide Friday and possibly Sat. This
boundary will become diffuse with time but will have moved to the NE
by Sun into Mon. The east coast upper trough does not want to move
but will be simply replaced by a new upper trough by the start of
the new week. This new upper trough is being shown in most global
guidance as bringing a new front(by definition cold front but not
gonna be cold) bringing dry air back into the area by mid next week.
Not sure what month this is. But the ridging behind this front will
help a strong stacked high settle over the area or close to us to
where it gives high optical depth values and hence strong solar
radiation values bringing temps toward the century mark. This may be
over northern and central LA/MS or even reach a bit farther south.
But either way, the heat will be back, but this time the dry air
will at least counter it somewhat, but may not be enough to keep
from issuing heat advisories.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023

Numerous TSRA have developed along a line from KMCB to KGPT. This
convection will spread southwestward towards the remaining areal
terminals this afternoon and evening. Mostly MVFR ceilings can be
expected outside of storms, which will produce lower visibilities
and potentially gusty winds as they track near TAF sites. In
additionally, lightning the last few days has been what would
consider above normal (which means A LOT) and expecting similar
conditions with today's activity. Showers and storms should wane
06Z-ish through the rest of the overnight period. It appears VFR
conditions will return then but could have some residual MVFR
ceilings.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023

Any storms that develop today will have a high potential to produce
hazardous marine conditions. But general winds and seas should
remain subdued over most areas. Heading into Wednesday and Thursday,
a weak frontal boundary will slip into the near shore waters and
stall. This will lead to weak northerly and easterly flow of 10
knots or less during this period time. By the end of the week, the
boundary is expected to weaken and move NW, and a return to
prevailing onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots is expected as the surface
ridge over the southern and eastern Gulf once again becomes more
dominant. Any storms that develop over the next few days in
association with this stalled trough will be highly capable of
producing locally dangerous marine conditions. Most activity will
stay east of the Miss River after the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  90  68  90 /  40  30  10  30
BTR  75  94  74  94 /  60  40  20  30
ASD  72  92  73  92 /  50  50  30  50
MSY  76  92  77  92 /  60  70  30  50
GPT  71  90  72  90 /  50  60  40  50
PQL  69  91  70  91 /  30  60  40  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034>037-039-
     046>048-056>060-064-065-069>071-076>090.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ034-035-046>048-
     056>060-064>070-076>090.

GM...None.
MS...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for MSZ068>071-077-
     083>088.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....TE
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...TE

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>