Severe Thunderstorm Warning 241, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
313 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Key Messages in short term:

*Isolated thunderstorm chance this afternoon/early evening and Sunday

*Warmer temperatures Sunday

Key Messages in the long term:

*Highs near or at 100 degrees in some locations Monday through Wed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

The main concern in the short term will be the thunderstorm
potential this afternoon into the early evening. Thunderstorms
development will be marginal and mostly diurnally driven, thus
wouldn't expect to see any storm sustaining itself much after
sunset. A weak disturbance is draped across portions of the
Sandhills, which will provide the focus for thunderstorm
development. Current satellite does show a cumulus field
developing across the Sandhills into north central and central
Nebraska. However, would not expect much if anything to develop
upscale west of HWY 83, as CAPE values are marginal to say the
least, less than 1000 J/kg. There is however, sufficient CAPE
around 1500 to 2000 J/kg, generally across the eastern portion of
the CWA, HWY 83 and east. This would be the favorable location for
any storm development this afternoon and early evening. There is
also a secondary area of development across SD that has the
potential to move into north central Nebraska.

For low temperatures tonight, did raise just a couple degrees. There
is a decent warm layer aloft overnight just above the sfc, however
clear skies and light winds should hinder any mixing of the warm air
to the sfc overnight. Sunday an upper level ridge builds in across
the west with decent WAA. For highs on Sunday, did bump them a
little higher, 850mb temps above 25 degrees celsius are expected and
should bring sfc temps into the upper 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

The main concern in the long term will be the heat. An upper level
ridge builds in from the west early next week, bringing very warm
temperatures Mon. through Wed. Temperatures on each of the days will
reach the upper 90s to 100 degrees. At this time no headlines are
needed for Mon. through Wed. as the heat index stays below headline
criteria, however will need to continue to monitor with upcoming
forecast. The ridge begins to flatten by Thursday, keeping the 100
degree temperatures at bay to end the week. There will be isolated
chances for thunderstorms throughout the week, but not expecting
anything widespread at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

An upper level disturbance across wrn SD will move south into
Nebraska late this afternoon. The disturbance is expected to
produce isolated thunderstorms. This flight concern is expected to
exit wrn and ncntl Nebraska by 03z this evening.

Otherwise, there are no other flight concerns this afternoon,
tonight and Sunday morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Gomez
SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
304 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-232015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
304 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 /204 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across north central
Nebraska and south central Nebraska this evening. The area of concern
is generally along and east of highway 83. The hazards are large
hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Heat index values could approach 100 to 105 degrees by Tuesday and
Wednesday across the region. Take precautions if you must be outside
next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
603 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

NEZ005-024-025-036-037-094-222345-
Hooker NE-Eastern Cherry NE-McPherson NE-Western Cherry NE-Thomas NE-
Logan NE-
603 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central
Cherry, eastern Hooker, northern Logan, northeastern McPherson and
Thomas Counties through 645 PM CDT/545 PM MDT/...

At 603 PM CDT/503 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Seneca, or 10 miles northwest of Thedford, moving
south at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Thedford, Seneca, Highway 83 crossing The Dismal River, Brown Lake,
Norway, Natwick and Kelso.

This includes the following highways...
 Highway 2 between mile markers 189 and 220.
 Highway 83 between mile markers 121 and 162.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4211 10098 4218 10050 4161 10027 4157 10091
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 344DEG 35KT 4208 10072

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CDC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
612 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     Hail             3 NE Hamlet             40.41N 101.19W
07/22/2023  E1.50 inch       Hayes              NE   Public

            Reported just under golf ball size.

&&

JG