Severe Thunderstorm Warning 240, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
313 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Key Messages in short term:

*Isolated thunderstorm chance this afternoon/early evening and Sunday

*Warmer temperatures Sunday

Key Messages in the long term:

*Highs near or at 100 degrees in some locations Monday through Wed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

The main concern in the short term will be the thunderstorm
potential this afternoon into the early evening. Thunderstorms
development will be marginal and mostly diurnally driven, thus
wouldn't expect to see any storm sustaining itself much after
sunset. A weak disturbance is draped across portions of the
Sandhills, which will provide the focus for thunderstorm
development. Current satellite does show a cumulus field
developing across the Sandhills into north central and central
Nebraska. However, would not expect much if anything to develop
upscale west of HWY 83, as CAPE values are marginal to say the
least, less than 1000 J/kg. There is however, sufficient CAPE
around 1500 to 2000 J/kg, generally across the eastern portion of
the CWA, HWY 83 and east. This would be the favorable location for
any storm development this afternoon and early evening. There is
also a secondary area of development across SD that has the
potential to move into north central Nebraska.

For low temperatures tonight, did raise just a couple degrees. There
is a decent warm layer aloft overnight just above the sfc, however
clear skies and light winds should hinder any mixing of the warm air
to the sfc overnight. Sunday an upper level ridge builds in across
the west with decent WAA. For highs on Sunday, did bump them a
little higher, 850mb temps above 25 degrees celsius are expected and
should bring sfc temps into the upper 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

The main concern in the long term will be the heat. An upper level
ridge builds in from the west early next week, bringing very warm
temperatures Mon. through Wed. Temperatures on each of the days will
reach the upper 90s to 100 degrees. At this time no headlines are
needed for Mon. through Wed. as the heat index stays below headline
criteria, however will need to continue to monitor with upcoming
forecast. The ridge begins to flatten by Thursday, keeping the 100
degree temperatures at bay to end the week. There will be isolated
chances for thunderstorms throughout the week, but not expecting
anything widespread at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

An upper level disturbance across wrn SD will move south into
Nebraska late this afternoon. The disturbance is expected to
produce isolated thunderstorms. This flight concern is expected to
exit wrn and ncntl Nebraska by 03z this evening.

Otherwise, there are no other flight concerns this afternoon,
tonight and Sunday morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Gomez
SHORT TERM...Gomez
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...CDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
304 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-232015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
304 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 /204 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across north central
Nebraska and south central Nebraska this evening. The area of concern
is generally along and east of highway 83. The hazards are large
hail and damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Heat index values could approach 100 to 105 degrees by Tuesday and
Wednesday across the region. Take precautions if you must be outside
next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
438 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

NEZ005-094-222200-
Eastern Cherry NE-Western Cherry NE-
438 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Cherry
County through 500 PM CDT...

At 438 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Spring Creek, or 24 miles southwest of Mission, moving south at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Kilgore and Nenzel.

This includes Highway 20 between mile markers 164 and 180.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4280 10081 4277 10117 4300 10116 4300 10087
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 342DEG 35KT 4306 10103

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
448 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

NEZ038-222215-
Custer NE-
448 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Custer
County through 515 PM CDT...

At 448 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Arnold, or 18 miles east of Stapleton, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Arnold, Callaway, Finchville and Milldale.

This includes Highway 92 between mile markers 247 and 257.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4149 10024 4154 10012 4128 9988 4119 10022
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 334DEG 23KT 4145 10015

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
504 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

NEZ005-094-222230-
Eastern Cherry NE-Western Cherry NE-
504 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Cherry
County through 530 PM CDT...

At 503 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Merritt Reservoir, or 22 miles west of Valentine,
moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Merritt Reservoir and Anderson Bridge State Wildlife Management Area.

This includes Highway 97 between mile markers 108 and 125.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4279 10116 4287 10090 4262 10067 4250 10100
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 334DEG 23KT 4277 10097

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
513 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

NEZ038-222230-
Custer NE-
513 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Custer
County through 530 PM CDT...

At 512 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southwest of Callaway, or 27 miles southeast of Stapleton,
moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Etna.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central Nebraska.

&&

LAT...LON 4128 10022 4131 10003 4112 9986 4105 10023
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 315DEG 21KT 4123 10012

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

CDC

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