Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
636 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

...UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Key Messages:

Several rounds of rain and thunderstorms expected tonight though at
least Saturday morning. Heavy rainfall appears to be the main
threat.

Drier weather is expected Saturday night through Monday. Warm
weather during this period too.

At least scattered storm chances return the 4th and beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

A longwave through will continue to progress eastward though the
Rockies this afternoon and move into the western High Plains Friday.
Mid-level southwest flow atop east to southeast low-level flow will
continue to provide a well sheared environment supportive of
organized convection downstream of the approaching trough.

With the approach of the longwave trough, surface low pressure is in
the process of deepening across northeast Colorado this afternoon.
Convection will develop along the Laramie range and perhaps the far
western Nebraska Panhandle late this afternoon. This activity will
be carried eastward into western Nebraska this evening. This
environment should be characterized by around 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE
and bulk shear near 35 kts. It appears that the better risk for
supercells, large hail and perhaps a tornado, will remain just west
of the area late this afternoon. Upscale growth into a cluster of
storms is then expected across western Nebraska this evening with
the main threat being strong winds and a lesser threat of hail. The
other concern will be the continued potential for heavy rainfall.

The longwave trough continues to advance closer to the area and
eventually emerges into the western High Plains Friday. Southwest
winds aloft decrease by later in the afternoon as the trough begins
to move overhead. The severe threat will also decrease as winds alft
weaken but the heavy rain threat will continue. A rather tough
forecast for Friday in regards to a focus for convection. There will
be large scale lift across the area, but lacking will be a defined
low-level boundary for convergence. There will likely be a couple of
left over weak boundaries from the early morning convection. It will
take only minimal heating to initiate convection near these
boundaries, but again it is unclear exactly where they will be
located. Models seem to favor north central Nebraska Friday evening
as a cold front sags south into the area providing better focus.
Another area is across southern Nebraska Friday night near a weak
closed low at H5 as the upper trough progresses eastward.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

A drier northwest flow aloft develops Sunday and continues into
Monday. It will also warm up during this oeriod with highs both
Sunday and Monday right around 90 degrees.

Pattern turns active again by the evening of the 4th. The base of a
of a Canadian longwave trough will swing through the Northern
Plains. A warm, moist airmass will be in place across the area with
at least scattered storms likely to form along a southward sagging
cold front Tuesday afternoon and evening. As the cold front pushes
southeast of the area expect much cooler weather Wednesday into
Thursday with highs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Thunderstorms will continue to overspread the area late this
evening, with brief MVFR possible in any thunderstorms. The storms
will cross the area tonight, with low stratus and patchy fog
developoment anticipated in the wake of the activity. MVFR/locally
IFR CIGs are expected to persist through the late morning, before
a gradual improvement to VFR is expected into tomorrow afternoon.
Additional thunderstorm activity is then expected tomorrow
evening, though confidence in timing and placement remains low
for now.

Winds remain light and generally variable through the period,
below 10kts. The exception will be in any thunderstorms, where
locally strong winds can be expected.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Taylor
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Brown

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
241 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-301945-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
241 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 /141 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Nebraska, north
central Nebraska, panhandle Nebraska, southwest Nebraska and west
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Thunderstorms will develop late this evening across the Panhandle
and move eastward across central Nebraska through the overnight
period. Some storms may become strong to severe, especially from the
Panhandle into the Sandhills, with large hail and damaging winds
possible. Very heavy rainfall may also lead to localized flooding
for areas across the Sandhills into north central Nebraska.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms are possible Friday into Friday night. Limited threat
for severe thunderstorms for areas generally south of I-80. Heavy
rainfall is also possible across portions of the area, which could
lead to localized minor flooding.

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms return late Monday
through the first part of next week. At this time, the threat for
severe weather is uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

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