Severe Thunderstorm Warning 153, NWS North Platte, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
636 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

...UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Key Messages:

Several rounds of rain and thunderstorms expected tonight though at
least Saturday morning. Heavy rainfall appears to be the main
threat.

Drier weather is expected Saturday night through Monday. Warm
weather during this period too.

At least scattered storm chances return the 4th and beyond.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

A longwave through will continue to progress eastward though the
Rockies this afternoon and move into the western High Plains Friday.
Mid-level southwest flow atop east to southeast low-level flow will
continue to provide a well sheared environment supportive of
organized convection downstream of the approaching trough.

With the approach of the longwave trough, surface low pressure is in
the process of deepening across northeast Colorado this afternoon.
Convection will develop along the Laramie range and perhaps the far
western Nebraska Panhandle late this afternoon. This activity will
be carried eastward into western Nebraska this evening. This
environment should be characterized by around 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE
and bulk shear near 35 kts. It appears that the better risk for
supercells, large hail and perhaps a tornado, will remain just west
of the area late this afternoon. Upscale growth into a cluster of
storms is then expected across western Nebraska this evening with
the main threat being strong winds and a lesser threat of hail. The
other concern will be the continued potential for heavy rainfall.

The longwave trough continues to advance closer to the area and
eventually emerges into the western High Plains Friday. Southwest
winds aloft decrease by later in the afternoon as the trough begins
to move overhead. The severe threat will also decrease as winds alft
weaken but the heavy rain threat will continue. A rather tough
forecast for Friday in regards to a focus for convection. There will
be large scale lift across the area, but lacking will be a defined
low-level boundary for convergence. There will likely be a couple of
left over weak boundaries from the early morning convection. It will
take only minimal heating to initiate convection near these
boundaries, but again it is unclear exactly where they will be
located. Models seem to favor north central Nebraska Friday evening
as a cold front sags south into the area providing better focus.
Another area is across southern Nebraska Friday night near a weak
closed low at H5 as the upper trough progresses eastward.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

A drier northwest flow aloft develops Sunday and continues into
Monday. It will also warm up during this oeriod with highs both
Sunday and Monday right around 90 degrees.

Pattern turns active again by the evening of the 4th. The base of a
of a Canadian longwave trough will swing through the Northern
Plains. A warm, moist airmass will be in place across the area with
at least scattered storms likely to form along a southward sagging
cold front Tuesday afternoon and evening. As the cold front pushes
southeast of the area expect much cooler weather Wednesday into
Thursday with highs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

Thunderstorms will continue to overspread the area late this
evening, with brief MVFR possible in any thunderstorms. The storms
will cross the area tonight, with low stratus and patchy fog
developoment anticipated in the wake of the activity. MVFR/locally
IFR CIGs are expected to persist through the late morning, before
a gradual improvement to VFR is expected into tomorrow afternoon.
Additional thunderstorm activity is then expected tomorrow
evening, though confidence in timing and placement remains low
for now.

Winds remain light and generally variable through the period,
below 10kts. The exception will be in any thunderstorms, where
locally strong winds can be expected.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Taylor
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Brown

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service North Platte NE
459 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Hamlet                  40.39N 101.24W
06/29/2023                   Hayes              NE   Public

            Delayed report. Wind driven hail resulted in tree and
            crop damage. Time estimated by radar.

&&

Brown

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service North Platte NE
515 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023

NEZ004-292345-
Sheridan NE-
515 PM MDT Thu Jun 29 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Sheridan County through 545 PM MDT...

At 515 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles south of Hay Springs, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Highway 250 crossing the Niobrara River, Intersection of Highway 87
and Antelope Road and Walgren Lake State Recreation Area.

This includes Highway 250 near mile marker 36.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4261 10277 4270 10251 4248 10244 4243 10275
      4244 10277
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 243DEG 20KT 4252 10274

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Brown

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